The two-day 2025 MLB Draft kicks off Sunday night in Atlanta, home of this year’s All-Star Game. Unlike the other three major North American pro sports leagues, this draft is not about instant gratification. Even the very best prospects will disappear into the minors for a year or two, most longer than that. Still, the next generation of players will be selected Sunday. Here’s our latest first-round mock draft.
There are 30 teams in the league but there are only 27 first-round picks this season. The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees have been pushed out of the first round because of their competitive balance tax spending. It’s important to note those three teams did not forfeit their first-round picks. Their first rounders were merely bumped back 10 spots, which knocked them out of the first round.
The competitive balance tax (CBT) is baseball’s soft salary cap. Teams can spend over the CBT threshold, but they are taxed on the overage, and the more you go over the threshold, the worse the penalties. Here are the CBT thresholds stipulated by the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement:
- 2022: $230 million
- 2023: $233 million
- 2024: $237 million
- 2025: $241 million
- 2026: $244 million
The penalties are based on how much over the threshold you spend, and how many consecutive years you’re over the threshold. Second and third-time offenders are hit harder than first-timers. You’ll often hear teams that duck under the CBT threshold call it “resetting” their CBT rates, because they again qualify as a first-time offender rather than a repeat offender.
Here are the CBT rates:
|
$20M or less over threshold |
20% |
30% |
50% |
|
$20M to $40M over threshold |
32% |
42% |
62% |
|
$40M to $60M over threshold |
62.5% |
75% |
95% |
|
$60M or more over threshold |
80% |
90% |
110% |
Tax is paid by penalty tier. For example, a first-time offender that is $75 million over the threshold pays a 20% tax on the first $20 million, a 32% tax on the second $20 million, a 62.5% on the third $20 million, and then an 80% tax on the remaining 15%.
Furthermore, teams that are at least $60 million over the CBT threshold have the next year’s first-round pick moved back 10 spots unless it falls within the first six picks of the draft. Teams with a top-six pick instead have their second rounder moved back 10 spots. They get to keep their top-six pick.
The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees all fall into that bucket. They all spent well more than $60 million above the CBT threshold last year and had their 2025 first-round picks moved back 10 spots. Here are the details:
|
Mets |
$347.7M |
No. 28 |
No. 38 |
|
Yankees |
$316.2M |
No. 29 |
No. 39 |
|
Dodgers |
$353.0M |
No. 30 |
No. 40 |
The draft order is no longer the reverse order of the previous year’s standings. The first six picks are determined via lottery, picks 7-18 are the remaining 12 non-postseason teams in the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, and picks 19-30 are the 12 postseason teams in order of their finish. The further you go in October, the later your first-round pick.
The Dodgers won the 2024 World Series and got the No. 30 pick in the 2025 draft. The Yankees lost the World Series and got the No. 29 pick. The Mets lost the NLCS and got the No. 28 pick. It just so happened that the three teams that were hit with the CBT draft pick penalties had the last three picks of the first round. That bumped them out of the first round.
So, the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees do not have a true first-round pick this Sunday because they exceeded the 2024 CBT threshold by more than $60 million, and had their picks moved back 10 spots. They still have those picks. They weren’t taken away. They will just be made 10 spots later than originally slated because of the CBT penalties.
This news was originally published on this post .
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