MLB Best Home Run Bets 7/24
Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) +475, BetMGM
Soderstrom is usually a solid play against right-handed pitchers according to the model, and that’s the case again today. He’s hit 17 of his 18 home runs this season off righties. He faced Jason Alexander (the pitcher, not George Costanza) about a month ago and, while he didn’t record a hit, he put the ball in play all three at-bats—including a 110 mph exit velocity in his final plate appearance. Although Alexander hasn’t pitched much in the majors this season, he’s allowing a .988 OPS against left-handed hitters. We set Soderstrom’s line around +350 to homer.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) +525, BetMGM
Tatis surprisingly has not faced Sonny Gray in his career, but we see good longshot value here. Tatis is beyond due—he hasn’t homered in his last 10 games and has just one in his last 24. Despite the drought, he still has 16 home runs on the season, so the power is there. Gray gave up 8 earned runs in just 3.1 innings in his last start, and right-handed bats have a .276 average and .771 OPS against him this season. This could be a great spot for Tatis to break out. We set his line at +412 to homer.
José Altuve (HOU +675, BetMGM
Altuve has seen Luis Severino plenty in his career, going 13-for-43 with 1 home run. He’s swinging a hot bat right now, with 4 multi-hit games in his last 7. Altuve has also been much better at home this season, hitting .316 with 10 home runs in 51 home games. The +675 line on BetMGM is excellent value, especially considering other books have him closer to +475. We set Altuve’s line at +550 to homer today.
Today’s MLB Prop Cheat Sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. For example, Soderstrom is a top play because our line is just +331 but you can get +475 at BetMGM.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 24-Jul | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.333 | +200 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.273 | +266 | Sonny Gray (STL) | 6 |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.294 | +240 | Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.247 | +305 | Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) | 5.75 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.245 | +308 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.242 | +313 | Charlie Morton (BAL) | 5.4 |
| 4 | Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | 0.232 | +331 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.23 | +335 | Eric Lauer (TOR) | 5.16 |
| 5 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.229 | +337 | Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.185 | +441 | Yu Darvish (SD) | 4.92 |
| 6 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.207 | +383 | Lawrence Butler (ATH) | 0.185 | +441 | Reese Olson (DET) | 4.91 |
| 7 | Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.206 | +385 | Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.18 | +456 | Jason Alexander (HOU) | 4.83 |
| 8 | Tyler O`Neill (BAL) | 0.203 | +393 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.164 | +510 | Logan Evans (SEA) | 4.82 |
| 9 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.194 | +415 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.155 | +545 | Logan Allen (CLE) | 4.74 |
| 10 | Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.185 | +441 | Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.144 | +594 | Luis Severino (ATH) | 4.53 |
| 11 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.18 | +456 | George Springer (TOR) | 0.13 | +669 | |
| 12 | Shea Langeliers (ATH) | 0.18 | +456 | Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.121 | +726 | |
| 13 | Lawrence Butler (ATH) | 0.177 | +465 | Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.115 | +770 | |
| 14 | Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.165 | +506 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.114 | +777 | |
| 15 | Jo Adell (LAA) | 0.161 | +521 | Luke Raley (SEA) | 0.114 | +777 | |
| 16 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.16 | +525 | Brice Matthews (HOU) | 0.109 | +817 | |
| 17 | Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.159 | +529 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.104 | +862 | |
| 18 | Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.159 | +529 | Jackson Holliday (BAL) | 0.103 | +871 | |
| 19 | Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.156 | +541 | Myles Straw (TOR) | 0.101 | +890 | |
| 20 | Manny Machado (SD) | 0.151 | +562 | Zach McKinstry (DET) | 0.096 | +942 | |
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