Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Ezequiel Tovar’s hot August and more THE BAT X insights

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Using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly rundown to inform fantasy managers about the road ahead as baseball season heads for the homestretch.

THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. Through this lens we’re able to identify a number of opportunities for fantasy managers to optimize their rosters.

St. Louis’ Michael McGreevy gets a start against the Colorado Rockies this week and is atop the one-start pitchers list, which features only those hurlers who may be available on waivers. McGreevy’s 4-2 this year with a 4.40 ERA and a similar xERA. He doesn’t walk players and limits Barrels, but the 25-year-old is a streamer in a good matchup, not a pitcher to roster long-term. A home start against the Rockies though? That could be a good spot to use him.

Of the waiver targets, Colorado’s less available Ezequiel Tovar (SS) and more available Tyler Freeman (SS, OF) are solid pickups in a pinch. Tovar is batting .405 in August, and Freeman is 98th-percentile in Whiff%, 99th in K% and is hitting .296 on the season with 14 stolen bases.

Like Tovar, trade target Michael Harris II of the Braves has had a successful month, batting .325; he also had a .301 average in July, though his season-long mark is only .241. While his Statcast metrics are underwhelming, he may be heating up. More plate discipline could do him wonders, and earlier this season, he made the list of players fellow major leaguers most like to watch play.

THE BAT X covers a lot of ground, and there’s more — on both hitters and pitchers — below that can help you have a successful week. The xwOBA under- and overperformers lists are two of my favorites, as they can tell you if, say, Colorado’s Warming Bernabel is as good as his numbers say. But, as we reiterate every week, don’t fade Cal Raleigh. Projection systems cannot always account for breakout seasons, so keep that in mind.

Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty’s explainer.

The Waiver Wire

For first-time readers, we compare players’ year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you’ll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.

Fade or Trade

Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. Some players here have had season-ending or season-deterring injuries. However, many talented players, who you could very well hold based on roster construction, are on this list. The point is that their success is projected to drop off; due to their YTD performance, they could be valuable trade bait and get you a higher return than their worth for the remainder of the season. Others on this list may

Trade Targets

Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. The projections indicate that you might want these players on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the “Fade or Trade” list above to see if there are deals to be made. The names on this list are well-known, but these players haven’t yet lived up to their previous or expected success, meaning you may be able to acquire a player on the come-up for a good value.

Hitting

Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. The “Fantasy $Value” indicates a player’s value in the matchup listed, while the “Underlying $Value” refers to the skill level or expected performance of the player based on THE BAT X’s advanced metrics and context-neutral data outside of the specific matchup listed. It’s the player’s value without external conditions like ballpark, the opponent, weather and their position in the lineup. It helps to separate a player’s raw core ability from the value in a given matchup.

Here’s a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.

The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Some of that underperformance can be chalked up to luck, and they’re likely to rebound to numbers closer to their xwOBA.

Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. Based on matchups, these five teams are projected to score the most runs this week, meaning the individual players on each team could have fantasy values that exceed their underlying values. This list could help you identify streamers or make tough decisions in weekly lineups.

Pitching

The top one-start pitchers list is limited to players rostered at 50% or less. Because these players are more available, you may find a streamer worthy of a start in a competitive league if you need help in pitching categories. Otherwise, the list can aid in making tough roster calls.

Two-start pitchers for the week are ranked based on THE BAT X’s projection system, and the list excludes those with a projected negative value. Two-start pitchers are valuable in weekly lineups, and these projections can help you find a plug-and-play option. The projected stats can also help you decide who to start, who to bench and who to replace.

The pitchers on the following list may be aces or above average, but they are projected to be in tough matchups that could hurt category stats or points in daily and weekly lineups.

Based on matchups, the following bullpens are ripe with relievers to stream this week. If you have RP spots to fill or improve, this is the list for you.

THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.

(Photo of Ezequiel Tovar: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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