The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won five of their first six games of the 2025 NFL season and gave the impression that they would cruise to their fifth consecutive NFL South title and the 11th division crown in franchise history. But they’ve lost five of their last seven contests and are clinging to first place, with a pair of crucial matchups against the Carolina Panthers remaining on their schedule.
Before worrying about those showdowns, Tampa Bay (7-6) must take care of business against another division rival as it opens Week 15 by hosting the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers dropped a 24-20 decision to the lowly New Orleans Saints at home last week and are tied for first place in the NFC South with the Panthers (7-6), who upset the conference-leading Los Angeles Rams 31-28, but currently own the tiebreaker.
While Tampa Bay only lost to New Orleans by four points, three of its previous four defeats were by double digits. Since their bye in Week 9, the Buccaneers’ lone win in five games was a 20-17 triumph over the inferior Arizona Cardinals, who have won just once in 11 contests after beginning the season with back-to-back victories.
Two weeks after leaving Tampa Bay’s 34-7 loss to Los Angeles with a shoulder injury, Baker Mayfield completed only 14 of his 30 pass attempts against New Orleans last Sunday for 122 yards. The 30-year-old quarterback, who was in the league MVP discussion earlier this season, has failed to eclipse the 200-yard mark in five of his last six outings and finished with fewer than two touchdown passes in six of the past seven.
Tampa Bay’s struggles have opened the door for Carolina, which has gone seven seasons without a playoff appearance and hasn’t won the NFC South since a three-year run from 2013-15. The Panthers fell two games behind the Buccaneers after their 40-9 setback against the Buffalo Bills in Week 8 but climbed back into contention for the division title by winning three of their next five contests.
Carolina held its own against Los Angeles last Sunday, as the lead changed four times before Bryce Young connected with Tetairoa McMillan for his third touchdown pass of the game with 6:34 remaining in the fourth quarter to put the Panthers ahead for good. The Panthers also won the turnover battle 3-0, with Rams star quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing two interceptions — including one that was returned for a TD by cornerback Mike Jackson — and fumbling at the Carolina 30-yard line while being sacked by defensive end Derrick Brown with 2:34 to play.
While Thursday night’s matchup against the Falcons is not a must-win for the Buccaneers, it would leave them with in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. Tampa Bay visits Carolina in Week 16 and, following a meeting with the Dolphins in Miami, hosts the Panthers in the regular-season finale.
Atlanta (4-9) was expected to be in the mix for the division crown this season but has been in a free fall since posting a shocking 24-14 victory against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6. The Falcons lost five consecutive contests after the upset and stopped the bleeding with a 24-10 triumph over the Saints before it resumed with setbacks versus the New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.
Despite its struggles, Atlanta is capable of making things difficult for Mayfield and the Buccaneers. The club is ninth in the NFL against the pass, allowing an average of 191.5 yards through the air per game, and faces a Tampa Bay aerial attack that ranks 27th (237.8 yards). The Falcons also rank third with 43 sacks.
James Pearce Jr. is tied with defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus for the team lead with six sacks and has registered at least one in each of his last five games, while fellow linebacker Jalon Walker is right behind them with five. However, Dorlus (groin) and Walker (quadriceps) both are questionable for Thursday’s showdown.
The Buccaneers are strong against the run, ranking eighth in the league with an average of 100.6 yards allowed on the ground. They’ll need to come up with a big effort against Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson, who is fourth in the NFL in rushing with 1,081 yards. The 23-year-old running back was an integral part of the Falcons’ passing game in their first meeting with Tampa Bay this season as he made six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown.
SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team feels Tampa Bay still has a great chance to continue its reign in the NFC South. According to the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the Bucs currently have a 75% chance to capture the division title, and their chances would increase to nearly 83% with a victory against the Falcons but drop to just over 59% with a loss.
The best path to the postseason for both Tampa Bay and Carolina is by winning the NFC South. The model says the prospects for the Panthers as they enter their Week 15 road matchup against the Saints are at 25% and would rise to 35% with a victory in “The Big Easy,” but dip below 20% with a defeat.
|
CHANCES OF WINNING NFC SOUTH |
||||
|
TEAM |
CURRENT |
WITH WEEK 15 WIN |
WITH WEEK 15 LOSS |
DIFFERENCE |
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
75.0% |
82.7% |
59.1% |
23.6% |
|
Carolina Panthers |
25.0% |
35.0% |
15.6% |
19.4% |
The likelihood of Tampa Bay and Carolina both winning this week is high, so a victory by the Bucs in their first matchup of the season in Week 16 figures to give them a massive advantage in the race for the division title as they then visit Miami while the Panthers host Seattle. It would behoove Carolina to win the first meeting with Tampa Bay, as if it does, there’s a strong chance both clubs will possess 9-7 records when they square off at Raymond James Stadium in the season finale.
But first, the Buccaneers need to right the ship and complete a season sweep of the Falcons on Thursday night. The division rivals opened their campaign with a showdown in Atlanta, and wideout Emeka Egbuka made his second touchdown reception of the game with 54 seconds left in the fourth quarter to help Tampa Bay post a 23-20 victory.
Falcons receiver Drake London will miss his fourth consecutive game due to a knee injury, but Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans (collarbone) may make his first appearance since Week 7 as he was activated from injured reserve on Wednesday. Tampa Bay is a 4.5-point favorite against Atlanta in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team’s model is projecting a 26-20 victory for the Bucs.
This news was originally published on this post .
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