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Final Four odds have no Cinderella story to tell. It’s all No. 1 seeds, as Florida meets Auburn and Houston takes on Duke in Saturday’s national semifinals.
But oddsmakers are still looking for a storybook ending. In the case of Caesars Sports, that involves eliminating its liability on the current championship favorite.
“We need Duke out of there. “Then we can take the oxygen mask off,” said Rich Zanco, head of college basketball trading at Caesars.
Zanco and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on Final Four odds, as March Madness dives headlong into April.
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Duke Dollars
Duke is 35-3 straight up (SU) and a solid 26-12 against the spread (ATS). The Blue Devils have won 15 consecutive games, going 11-4 ATS in that span.
So it’s no surprise to see Cooper Flagg & Co. as favorites vs. Houston (34-4 SU/20-17-1 ATS), in an 8:49 p.m. ET tip off on Saturday. It’s worth noting the Cougars are on a 17-game winning streak, though they’re not as good at covering the number, going 8-7-2 ATS in that stretch.
Duke opened -4.5, quickly advanced to -5 on Sunday night and the line has since teetered between -5.5/-5 at Caesars.
As of Thursday evening, the Blue Devils are 5-point favorites.
“Obviously, there will be a flood of public money coming in on Duke. But there’s nothing wrong with needing Houston in this game,” Zanco said. “Sharper players and the more sophisticated bets may come in on the ‘dog if it gets to Houston +6, which it might.
“I assume somebody is gonna flash a 6 at some point, whether it’s us or someone else.”
While Duke is seeing the bulk of straight point-spread bets at Caesars, straight moneyline play is leaning into Houston at +235.
A $100 bet on a Cougars outright upset would profit $235 (total payout $335).
However, as has been pointed out often the past two weeks, favorites are rolling through March Madness.
Chalk went 12-0 SU in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight and is 48-12 SU through 60 games overall.
“To be honest, we haven’t had a ‘dog bark in quite some time,” Zanco said, noting a Cougars cover might be helpful, but outright is far better. “We will need Houston in that game.”
Kelvin Sampson on changing Houston’s culture, Cooper Flagg, Final Four
March Madness Sharp Side
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone thinks points will be at a premium when Houston and Duke square off Saturday night.
Houston ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency and 360th in adjusted tempo, according to statistics guru Ken Pomeroy. The Cougars also lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 58.3 points per game.
“Duke obviously poses a stiff challenge for Houston’s defense,” Stone said. “The Blue Devils average almost 84 points a game, and Cooper Flagg is a nightmare matchup for any team, with his ability to both score from the outside and go to the basket.”
Stone expects Houston to utilize J’Wan Roberts as Flagg’s primary defender, but that a couple more 6-foot-8 types — Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis — will also get turns.
“Flagg is going to get his points,” Stone said. “But I think Houston will make him work for everything he gets.”
Stone said Houston’s best path to potential victory is to slow the pace and play as physically as the officials will allow.
“Houston is substantially improved offensively this season. But the Cougars can’t get into a scoring match with Duke,” he said. “The Cougars need to shorten the game and turn it into a rock fight, so to speak. I like this game to remain under the total of 136.”
How will Cooper Flagg fare in the NBA?
SEC Showdown
Saturday’s first semifinal, at 6:09 p.m. ET, features familiar foes. SEC regular-season champ Auburn meets SEC Tournament champ Florida.
These two teams met just once this season, on Feb. 8 at Auburn. The Gators were hefty 11-point underdogs and pulled the outright upset 90-81.
This time around, Florida is favored, sitting at -2.5 most of this week, save for literally a few minutes on Sunday at -3.
“There’s a 3 out there right now at one or two other books. I’d suspect we’ll probably be Florida -3 at some point,” Zanco said on Wednesday. “We’re seeing some Florida action, but they’re betting Auburn, too. We’ll probably need Auburn, but I don’t know how much of a decision it’ll be.”
Caesars Sports wouldn’t mind either of these teams winning it all on Monday night. As Zanco noted above, a Duke championship is a loser for the book.
Houston is good for Caesars, too, but just not as good. There’s a $10,000 bet on Cougars +2200 to win the title, which would turn a $220,000 profit.
“We do extremely well to Auburn in the futures pool, and extremely well to Florida,” Zanco said, while noting all four No. 1 seeds could get the job done. “Any one of these teams could cut down the nets.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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