How Rangers’ final 3 games and NHL draft lottery impact decision on conditional first-rounder

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There is basically no more surprise around this New York Rangers season as to whether they’ll make the playoffs. By the time you read this, if that’s late Friday night, the season could already be over. The Canadiens need a single point in their final four games to eliminate the Rangers, who also would be eliminated if they lose any of their final three games in any fashion.

So, it’s over. The most bizarre, no-fun Rangers season in a long while is coming to an end after Thursday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

But because the intrigue never seems to end with this group, these last three games do carry significance.

That’s because of the trade general manager Chris Drury made on Jan. 31. In acquiring J.T. Miller from the Canucks for Filip Chytil, Victor Mancini and a conditional first-round pick this coming June, the Rangers set in motion a process that could end up with them trading a pretty high pick — possibly even in the top 10 — not to the Vancouver Canucks, but to the division rival Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Canucks flipped that conditional first to the Penguins the next day for Marcus Pettersson. So if Drury felt trading a first away was worth the risk in part because it was going to a team out west, that calculus has changed.

Let’s examine what the deal is with this pick, what could happen over these last three games and what the Rangers’ options are.

What are the conditions on the pick?

The pick is top-13 protected, which is an interesting number. Some teams protect their traded picks if they’re in the top 10 or even just in the lottery among the 16 teams that do not make playoffs. That phrase “top-13 protected” means if the Rangers’ pick (it is still theirs now) ends up between first and 13th, they can choose to either keep it or trade it to the Penguins. If it’s 14, 15 or 16, it will automatically transfer to Pittsburgh.

If the Rangers keep the pick, then an unprotected 2026 first-rounder goes to the Penguins. That means no matter where that pick lands, from 32 all the way up to No. 1, it would belong to Pittsburgh.

When do the Rangers have to decide?

They have until 48 hours before the start of the first round of the draft, which would be June 25. So the Rangers can go through the draft lottery later this month and find out if they’ve won. Teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots by winning the lottery, so the Rangers would have to finish with the 11th-worst record to be eligible to win and grab the No. 1 pick.

Even if the Rangers finish with the 12th-worst record, which is where they are now, they could still win the lottery and move up to No. 2. So Drury will get a chance to see where the ping-pong balls land before having to make the call on the pick.

How much more can the Rangers move lottery positions?

A bit, but not a ton. They can’t finish with the 16th-worst record — the best of the worst — because one of the Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks or Utah have that locked up, depending on how they finish. And the Rangers are currently sitting with 81 points and three games to go while the Flames (88 points, four games left), Canucks (87, three) and Utah (85, three) are all pretty far ahead. So it seems like the Rangers are likely to finish no “better” than with the 13th-worst record.

They can move up — or down, however you want to view getting better draft lottery odds — but not in any meaningful way. The Rangers own the regulation-wins tiebreaker over every lottery team, so a tie in the standings means the Rangers get the lower lottery odds each time. They’re tied with the Columbus Blue Jackets at 81 points, but Columbus has four games left; the Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders are at 79 points, the Anaheim Ducks at 78 and the Sabres at 76 with four games left. That’s about the farthest the Rangers could fall, and if all four of those teams surpass the Rangers’ point total, they’d be sitting with the eighth-worst record.

But the surefire trade-it spots — 14 to 16 — seem spoken for. So there almost surely will be a decision on the pick coming.

How deep is this draft compared to 2026?

The consensus has been that the 2025 draft is not as strong as 2026, but that’s in the eye of the draft evaluator.

“You walk out of last year’s draft and everyone says, ‘Oh, 2025 isn’t that strong,’” said one Eastern Conference executive. “As you get closer to this draft, then you hear, ‘Oh, 2026 isn’t that strong.’ We feel like this draft is pretty solid in the top half. I think it’s a tough call they’ve got if they’re picking in that six to 12 range.”

Here’s what our draft guru Scott Wheeler had to say: “This isn’t a great draft, but it has grown on me, and there will be a good player in that eight to 13 range. If it’s in the top 10, keep it. I’m not convinced that next year is some special draft, either. Gavin McKenna is Gavin McKenna, but anyone telling you with any confidence that the next group after him is substantially better than this year’s group would be talking out of both sides of their mouth. It’s way too early to make that determination on the rest of the 2026 kids.”

What are the risks in keeping this year’s pick?

The huge one is clear: If the Rangers hang onto the 2025 pick then Drury is gambling that his team will be better — far better — in 2025-26 than they’ve been in this woeful season.

Maybe it’s not a bad bet. The Rangers under Drury have been to two Eastern Conference finals and won the Presidents’ Trophy a year ago. They still have Igor Shesterkin in net, Adam Fox on defense and a few high-end forwards. Plus they have a decent amount of cap space heading into the offseason. Even with all the turmoil this season, they’re still not going to finish with one of the seven worst records in the league. If they can smooth out the turmoil, they shouldn’t be this bad.

But not having any protection on the pick means even if the Rangers are mediocre-to-bad again, they could be transferring a top-10 pick on its face or could “win” the lottery and end up giving the Penguins a first or second overall pick. The fallout from that would be immense. Drury would be gambling his job on the decision. But if the Rangers stink again next year, it might not be Drury’s job regardless.

What are the risks in trading this year’s pick?

If it’s between eight and 13, you’re still dealing away the chance to pick a very likely NHLer, if not the sure thing that a top-five pick would be. And the Penguins will already have another crack at the lottery with their own pick this year, so they could be picking top two and have another pick around 10 — which they could use or package themselves to get better right away.

The fact that this pick is in Pittsburgh’s hands is difficult enough to fathom for a rival, but if the Penguins use it to grab a good player off another NHL roster, that not only makes Rangers fans (and maybe an owner) mad but also makes the Penguins tougher competition for the playoffs next season .

What would you do?

Me? Sheesh. I’d want to lose my last three games, win the lottery and take the decision away. If this pick is in double digits, I’d trade it. Drury knows, especially if he fires Peter Laviolette at season’s end, that it’s his neck on the chopping block next. I’d bet on myself to make the right moves in the summer to bring the team back around. Either way, this is a real pickle the Rangers are in, once again of their own making.

Now, it’s your turn: What would you do?

(Photo of Chris Drury: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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