Manchester City’s ‘easy’ nine-game pathway back to the Champions League

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With an FA Cup semi-final to look forward to, Manchester City can turn their focus to securing Champions League qualification.

Fifth spot in the Premier League is almost certain to provide an additional route to Europe’s top competition, handing City an extra lifeline.

Not only do City have a pretty forgiving set of fixtures to come, but they also have a theoretically easier run-in than their rivals for a top-five finish.

In fact, they have a ‘better’ final nine games than any other team in the Premier League — according to the Opta Power Rankings.

Naturally, City manager Pep Guardiola has already cautioned that his side have plenty of difficult games coming up, and that their inconsistent form means they cannot take any matches for granted.

“We have tough games — like Brighton, Aston Villa, Bournemouth,” he said before the 2-2 draw against Brighton last month, a week after their defeat at Nottingham Forest.

“Most of the games are really, really tough. We have to do it better because there are many teams with this target, and we missed an important chance last week.”

As well as playing rivals for the top spots, such as Villa and Bournemouth, City’s fixtures against Everton and Manchester United away from home pose obvious perils.

Then there is the news that Erling Haaland is going to miss several games after being forced out of Sunday’s cup victory against Bournemouth with a foot injury. But that shouldn’t mask the fact that City have improved. The chart below shows the decline in City’s defensive performance that torpedoed their title defence has largely reversed in recent weeks (note the red line, representing expected goals against, a proxy of chances conceded).

Haaland’s absence is significant but, although he has missed only 11 Premier League games since joining City, the team have averaged 2.3 goals per game without him. Their scoring rate with the Norwegian in the side? Also 2.3 goals per game.

And Opta’s Power Rankings, which are constantly updated to reflect a side’s performances and are based on an algorithm originally designed to rank chess players, have only one of City’s fixtures — Villa at home — statistically classified as ‘difficult’.

That match is unscheduled given both sides are still in the FA Cup, but there may be an irony there as Villa’s line-up may be influenced by Champions League priorities if they make it past Paris Saint-Germain.

City managed to get the better of Bournemouth at the weekend but Andoni Iraola’s side will be a tough opponent in City’s final home game of the season, and while Manchester United are enduring another difficult season, they did beat City in December so it would not be a huge surprise if they caused more problems this weekend.

Forest, who beat City 1-0 just over a fortnight ago and will be their FA Cup semi-final opponents at Wembley, also have one of the easier run-ins, meaning Guardiola’s men may not be able to overturn the six-point league deficit to Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.

But even if City cannot catch Forest and drop more points than expected, there are some comforts to be taken from their rivals’ fixture lists. Chelsea, for example, have a much harder set of fixtures, even if City’s run turns out to be tougher in reality than Opta’s supercomputer gives it credit for.

Chelsea face Tottenham on Thursday before a trip to Brentford, and their last four games include away games at Newcastle and Forest, as well as home games against Liverpool and Manchester United.

Newcastle themselves have an extra game due to their involvement in the Carabao Cup final, which is at home against Crystal Palace, but they have ‘difficult’ games against Villa, Chelsea and Arsenal, as well as a ‘challenging’ game at Brighton.

Haaland was injured in City’s FA Cup win at Bournemouth and faces a spell on the sidelines (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)

While City also have to face Villa and Bournemouth, meaning there is potential for them to lose points to direct rivals for a fourth- or fifth-place finish, Chelsea and Newcastle’s fixtures are full of games against other teams vying for those spots, meaning points are going to be dropped left, right and centre.

The competitive nature of the table, coupled with City’s inconsistency, means that even Brentford in 11th, seven points off fifth place, could feasibly mount a challenge, but they do have one of the more difficult run-ins, with Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton, Forest and Manchester United up next.

Brighton, one point behind City, play Villa, Brentford and Newcastle in terms of European challengers, and also Liverpool and Tottenham.

City travel to Fulham on the final day, and given only three points separate them in the table, that could also be a pivotal game. Fulham, though, have the second-toughest run-in, according to the ratings.

Fulham have trips to Arsenal and Bournemouth either side of hosting Liverpool, then play Chelsea, Villa, Brentford and, as mentioned, City in their final five matches.

Guardiola, speaking on Friday, said he, his coaches and his players “do not deserve a bonus” given their form this season, and with so many contenders for the top places, they cannot afford too many slip-ups.

But they can afford a few. Even if their own fixtures do not go entirely to plan, they do appear to have some margin for error due to the trickier tests that face the teams immediately below them, as well as the sheer number of matches to be played between an incredibly competitive top half.

(Top photo: Alex Pantling/Getty Images)

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