Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Zac Gallen is proof that a little patience could go a long way, and more

If I may, I’m going to borrow an aphorism to kick off today’s newsletter. Okay, here goes:

If you want to make God laugh, draw a strong conclusion from the first week of the MLB season.

I know it’s not quite as catchy as the original, but it works! Just think about the biggest narrative in baseball so far this season: Those dastardly Yankees and the unfair advantage offered by their early adoption of the torpedo bats. That narrative ran headlong into another one a lot of Fantasy players bought into this spring: Zac Gallen is finished! His struggles last season were just the start, they said, and his four-runs-in-four-innings showing on Opening Day was proof.

Or not.

Gallen utterly dominated the Yankees Wednesday, putting together one of the best starts of his impressive career in striking out 13 over 6.2 innings of work. He allowed just three hits and no walks, blanking an offense that was averaging 10-plus runs per game. And he did it with his entire arsenal, throwing four pitches at least 11% of the time and generating multiple whiffs on each of those four pitches – led, of course, by 13 with the curveball – en route to a huge 24-whiff showing.

And those weren’t the only early-season narratives that run into trouble Wednesday. With most pitchers making their second start of the season, it seemed like pretty much everyone did the opposite of their first start. Mackenzie Gore struggled after a brilliant debut; Luis Castillo quieted the doubters for at least one night himself; Carlos Rodon, Ryan Pepiot, and Jeffrey Springs all followed up impressive first outings with pretty mediocre ones Wednesday. The only real consistency came from the Dodgers, who extended their winning streak to eight games to open the season with a win over the Braves, whose winless streak extended to seven games.

This game will humble you. The players know that, and Fantasy analysts and players need to understand it, too. They play 162 games for a reason, after all, and very little that we’ve seen so far should really change your opinion on most players. I originally typed “shouldn’t really change your opinion on anyone,” but that’s not really how I feel – on Wednesday, I wrote about five early-season narratives that might matter, while Scott White highlighted the players who have moved up or down in his first rankings update of the season, and you should check those out to see what we’ve seen so far that we think does matter. Or might, at least. 

But know this: Whatever opinions you find changing right now, you should make sure you stay open-minded. As I write later in today’s newsletter, Rafael Devers‘ early-season struggles are one obvious thing that has me pretty concerned, but he also gave us real signs of life Wednesday, which is why I don’t want to draw too many strong conclusions right now.

It can make you look dumb if you change your opinion drastically after a week, and I don’t like looking dumb. Let’s get to the rest of Wednesday’s action, starting with the top waiver-wire targets from around the league: 

Thursday’s top waiver-wire targets

Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Wednesday’s action: 

Jack Leiter, SP, Rangers (68%) – Given that we saw a few other starts Wednesday ruined by pitchers staying in just a bit too long, it’s possible Leiter’s early hook due to a blister was a blessing in disguise. But it was a really impressive start before the injury, as Leiter touched 99 mph and sat at 98 with his four-seamer while throwing five different pitches at least 10% of the time. He generated 11 whiffs on 70 pitches and did a good job working in the zone without surrendering much damage. Leiter’s track record makes this a pretty inherently volatile profile, but just one walk in 10 innings of work so far is exactly what we wanted to see from a guy with the kind of stuff Leiter has. It might all fall apart on him, but I think he’s shown enough here in the early going to be more or less a must-roster pitcher right now. 

Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals (53%) – In the preseason, I said Herrera was the Plan A for my No. 2 catcher spot and a very good Plan B, and I feel very good about that one right now. I mean, of course, I feel that way after a three-homer game, but this isn’t just about Wednesday’s performance, impressive as it was. Herrera is now hitting .467/.529/1.200 through his first five games, with a good approach at the plate and solid quality of contact metrics, just like he had last season. I wish he were playing even more – Pedro Pages has started a few games and has replaced Herrera late for defensive purposes in a few more – but that just doesn’t matter all that much at this position. He might just be a must-roster catcher, too. 

Dennis Santana, RP, Pirates (16%) – So, yesterday I said I didn’t have much interest in chasing the Pirates closer spot and I would let Derek Shelton tell me who to go add. Well, we didn’t have to wait long for Shelton to do just that, as the Pirates turned to Santana in the ninth to close out a 4-2 win over the Rays. He walked one and needed 24 pitches to get through the outing, and I think it’s fair to say that Santana isn’t going to be a lights-out closer. But he does appear to be the closer right now, and if you need saves, take him.

Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies (36%) – If Herrera isn’t available in your league and you don’t have an absolute must-start catcher, you need to go add Goodman right now. He was one of the biggest risers in Scott’s rankings update this week, and he’s certainly been one of the most pleasant surprises at a position typically short on them. He has started all five games for the Rockies so far and has homered off Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler so far, representing the only two runs those two have given up in their starts. That’s pretty impressive! Goodman has legit power for any position, and if he’s going to keep playing every day for the Rockies, it might not take long for him to be a top-12 catcher.