Entering the 2025 Goodyear 400 on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, the last nine NASCAR at Darlington races have been won by nine different drivers. Regular visitors to victory lane such as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are among them, but there are also surprise winners like Erik Jones and Chase Briscoe. While Larson (+450) and Tyler Reddick (+650) are atop the 2025 Goodyear 400 odds, don’t ignore Jones (+5000) or reigning winner Brad Keselowski (+2800) as potential sleepers for 2025 NASCAR at Darlington bets.
Before entering any 2025 Goodyear 400 picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Darlington predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including two winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the Goodyear 400 2025 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Top NASCAR at Darlington sleeper picks from 10,000 simulations
Joey Logano (+1500 at DraftKings)
The three-time Cup Series champion is off to a slow start this year, sitting ninth in the NASCAR standings. However, he’s coming off a season-best eighth-place finish at Martinsville, also collecting a stage win at the short track. Logano is a Darlington winner, courtesy of claiming this race in 2022, and he’s also coming off a top 10 in his last visit to this track. He’s placed in the top 15 in eight of his last 10 NASCAR at Darlington starts, so it comes as a surprise that he has longshot odds at DraftKings.
Ross Chastain (+1800 at Bet365)
Chastain has placed fifth in two of the last three races at Darlington Raceway, but that only tells part of the story as to why he’s a NASCAR at Darlington sleeper. Few drivers have been better at comparable intermediate tracks around 1.5 miles in length than Chastain. His average finish of 13.1 at the circuits since 2022 is topped by just four other drivers, while only two others have more top 5s over this span than Chastain’s 13. Additionally, it was roughly six months ago that his last Cup Series victory came at an intermediate track at Kansas, and he also won the prior year at another type of track in Nashville.
Kyle Busch (+1800 at Bet365)
The veteran has 24 career starts at Darlington Raceway, and a quarter of those have resulted in him finishing in the top 3. That includes his most recent start there in Sept. 2024, and Busch is among many NASCAR at Darlington winners in the lineup, as his first victory with Joe Gibbs Racing came here. However, Busch has since moved on to Richard Childress Racing, and you can count this 1.366-miles oval as one of the team’s favorite venues to visit. RCR has an average finish of 14.7 at Darlington since the start of 2022, which is the second-best of any NASCAR team, trailing only RFK Racing (13.1). Busch can be had at +1800 at both DraftKings and Bet365.
More top NASCAR at Darlington expert picks, longshots revealed
You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 Goodyear 400 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, including Chase Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray and Kyle Larson’s win at Homestead.
2025 NASCAR Darlington odds, drivers, lineup
Kyle Larson +450
Tyler Reddick +650
Ryan Blaney +700
Denny Hamlin +700
William Byron +900
Christopher Bell +1000
Joey Logano +1500
Chase Briscoe +1500
Bubba Wallace +1600
Ross Chastain +1800
Kyle Busch +1800
Chase Elliott +1800
Chris Buescher +2200
Brad Keselowski +2800
Alex Bowman +3000
Josh Berry +3500
Austin Cindric +4000
Ty Gibbs +5000
Noah Gragson +5000
Erik Jones +5000
Ryan Preece +5500
Carson Hocevar +6500
AJ Allmendinger +6500
Daniel Suarez +10000
Michael McDowell +17000
Zane Smith +20000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
Justin Haley +20000
Austin Hill +20000
Austin Dillon +20000
Riley Herbst +25000
Cole Custer +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +30000
Ty Dillon +50000
JJ Yeley +100000
Cody Ware +100000
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