2025 Masters picks, predictions: Nine trends from the last decade that will determine green jacket winner

If the 2025 Masters feels a bit more wide open than recent trips to Augusta National Golf Club, that may be wind up being accurate. Many of the top players enter the first major championship of the season with questions swirling around some aspect of their form. That could give way to a surprise winner for the first time in a long time.

Will Scottie Scheffler becomes just the fourth player to successfully defend his Masters title? Will Rory McIlroy overcome the demons and become the fifth to complete the career grand slam? Will world No. 3 Xander Schauffele regain his form following a two-month hiatus due to a rib injury?

The players listed above are the top three players in the game, but they are not the only ones who will need to answer questions. Last year’s runner-up, Ludvig Åberg, has missed consecutive cuts entering the Masters, as has 2021 champion Hideki Matsuyama. Will they bounce back? 

Meanwhile, LIV Golf’s hottest player, Joaquín Niemann, will need to answer whether he can contend on the major stage. His talent suggests that possibility, but without any memorable major finishes, will the Chilean break his skid in such championships at Augusta National?

CBS Sports aims to provide answers to all these questions by strictly using statistics. The numbers will do the talking by identifying this year’s most likely Masters contenders. With that in mind, let’s take a look back at the 10 most recent winners of the Masters and identify what trends exist as we attempt to whittle down the field of 96 players to pinpoint this year’s champion.

Watch all four rounds of the 2025 Masters with expanded coverage from CBS Sports. It starts Thursday with Masters Live as we follow the best in the world across Featured Groups, Amen Corner and holes 15 & 16. Watch those streams live across Paramount+, CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App with extended broadcast coverage Saturday and Sunday from 12-2 p.m. on Paramount+ and 2-7 p.m. on CBS.

1. What’s your age again?

It has been nearly four decades since a 46-year-old Jack Nicklaus donned his sixth and final green jacket for the last of his 18 major championships. Phil Mickelson has been able to turn back the clock at certain moments — like his 2021 PGA Championship win and 2023 Masters runner-up result — but it is not commonplace. Over the last 10 years, Tiger Woods (43) has been the oldest winner with the last four all coming in under the age of 30. With this in mind, it is safe to assume: If you are over the age of 46, you probably aren’t winning at Augusta National.

Eliminated (8): Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Bernhard Langer, Jose Maria Olazabal, Angel Cabrera, Zach Johnson

2. Maybe don’t remember your first time

Horton Smith, Gene Sarazen and Fuzzy Zoeller are only three players to ever win the Masters in their first attempt. Zoeller is the latest to do so back in 1979, so it does not appear likely that streak will snap anytime soon. Players like Ludvig Åberg, Will Zalatoris and Sungjae Im have threatened in recent years, but until first-timer proves us wrong, we will be eliminating them.

Eliminated (21): Evan Beck (a), Justin Hastings (a), Hiroshi Tai (a), Jose Luis Ballester (a), Noah Kent (a), Brian Campbell, Rafael Campos, Laurie Canter, Thomas Detry, Nico Echavarria, Max Greyserman, Joe Highsmith, Rasmus Hojgaard, Thirston Lawrence, Matt McCarty, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, Davis Thompson, Kevin Yu

3. It’s a steady climb

They say Augusta National is an acquired taste. One may not understand the nuances the first or second time around, but once one has a game plan in place, all that’s left on the table is execution. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket with all 10 having previously collected a top-40 result. 

Eiminated (5): Wyndham Clark, Austin Eckroat, Nick Dunlap, Stephan Jaeger, Denny McCarthy

4. What have you done for me lately?

Every green jacket winner since 2015 has notched a top-15 finish on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in a stroke-play event during the calendar year leading up to the Masters. Seven of those had already entered the winner’s circle on the year — see Scheffler in 2024, Rahm in 2023, Scheffler in 2022, Johnson in 2020 and Spieth in 2015 — while eight had at least a runner-up result. We’ll use that same top-15 cutoff point for LIV Golf events as well. 

Eliminated (8): Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Chris Kirk, Patton Kizzire, Mattieu Pavon, Cameron Smith, Sahith Theegala, Bubba Watson

5. Major-championship pedigree

It is rare to show up at a major championship and win without at least having a recent taste of contention. In fact, the last 10 Masters winners all had a top-15 finish in a major championship the year prior. Some of those instances include Patrick Reed finishing runner-up at the 2017 PGA Championship, Woods finishing runner-up at the 2018 PGA Championship and Scheffler finishing second to Brooks Koepka at the 2023 PGA Championship.

Eliminated (23): Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Akshay Bhatia, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Keegan Bradley, Harris English, Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge, Nicolai Hojgaard, Dustin Johnson, Tom Kim, Brooks Koepka, Min Woo Lee, Michael Kim, Joaquin Niemann, J.T. Poston, Charl Schwartzel, J.J. Spaun, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka, Nick Taylor, Jhonattan Vegas, Danny Willett

And just like that, we have already eliminated 65 players, more than two-thirds of the 2025 Masters field.

6. Let’s get technical 

Four out of the last five Masters winners were average at least +2.50 strokes gained per round the year of their victories. Matsuyama was the low man of the last decade with an average of +0.67, while Dustin Johnson was the highest with +3.91. We’ll use Matsuyama’s number as a benchmark, but be warned: those hovering around +2.0 per round are the names to really consider.

Eliminated (8): Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Byeong Hun An, Cam Davis, Cameron Young, Adam Schenk

7. Speak softly and carry a big stick

Many of the best golfers in the world currently are the best drivers of the ball. The same rings true at Augusta National where the last 10 winners were averaging at least +0.60 strokes gained off the tee per round in the calendar year of their victory. Reed was the low man of this group with +0.14 strokes gained off the tee per round, which will eliminate a few big names.

Eliminated (4): Justin Thomas, Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose

8. Iron it out

Augusta National caters to some of the best iron players in the world (like Woods). Over the last three months, Collin Morikawa has been the best in this category (+1.47 strokes gained approach per round), while a number of notable names have struggled with their scoring clubs. The past 10 winners were averaging a minimum of +0.84 strokes gained approach per round with Sergio Garcia’s +0.41 the low among the group — a bar some historically strong approach players haven’t come close to sniffing.

Eliminated (8): Corey Conners, Ludvig Åberg, Sergio Garcia, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im

9. There needs to be a Plan B

More often than not, there will be some sort of turbulence over the course of 72 holes of major championship golf, and a player’s short game will be tested. Whether it was Scheffler’s chip-in on No. 3 in the final round of 2022 or Willett’s up-and-down on the 71st hole in 2016, an around-the-green presence is required in some shape or form. The last 10 winners averaged +0.54 strokes gained around the green with Matsuyama surprisingly setting the bar low at +0.22 per round.

Eliminated (2): Tommy Fleetwood, Will Zalatoris

So … who will contend at the 2025 Masters?

In running this column the last few years, the field usually gets pared down far more substantially than this. Last season’s process typically produced a player pool of 4-6 players, but in the first major of the year, we have nine finalists.

(1) Scheffler, (2) McIlroy and (3) Morikawa have clearly been the top three players this season with Morikawa leading the way statistically. They are joined by a half dozen players who may be surprising to some. (4) Matsuyama and (5) Russell Henley have entered the winner’s circle already this season, but the other four have not. (6) Patrick Cantlay and (7) Shane Lowry contended in the major championships last year and look strong throughout the bag, while (8) Jason Day and (9) Robert MacIntyre are interesting cases. MacIntyre could be the next left hander to win at Augusta National … but this soon? Who knows — crazier things have happened!

2025 Masters odds for trending contenders

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler: 4-1
• Rory McIlroy: 13/2
• Collin Morikawa: 16-1
• Hideki Matsuyama: 28-1
• Patrick Cantlay: 35-1
• Shane Lowry: 35-1
• Russell Henley: 55-1
• Robert MacIntyre: 55-1
• Jason Day: 80-1

Who will win the Masters, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the past three Masters, and is up nearly $9,000 since June 2020.