El superordenador corona al Barça… y se olvida del Madrid

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Este martes arranca la ida de los cuartos de final de la Champions League y el superordenador de Opta no ha tardado en actualizar sus predicciones. A partir de los últimos resultados, y más de 10.000 simulaciones de la tecnología británica, el Barça es el principal favorito para llegar a la final y llevarse su quinta Champions League

Luis Enrique en la final de la Champions

El siguiente en la lista de favoritos es el PSG de Luis Enrique (19,3% de posibilidades), en lo que sería un reencuentro entre el asturiano y su exequipo en la final. Pero, llama la atención la posición del Real Madrid en esta lista de candidatos. Aunque el superordenador le da a los blancos casi las mismas posibilidades de pasar a semifinales que al Arsenal (49,8% para los de Ancelotti, por 50,2% para los ‘gunners’), el conjunto merengue no pasaría de ronda y tiene tan sólo un 12,2% de posibilidades de conquistar la ‘orejona’.

El Barça, favorito para ganar la Champions para el superordenador de Opta

El Barça, favorito para ganar la Champions para el superordenador de Opta

El Madrid se queda en cuartos

De esta manera, el Madrid es quinto en esta lista. Incluso el Inter de Milán parte con más opciones para llevarse la máxima competición de clubes. Las dos semifinales por las que apuesta la tecnología de Opta son Arsenal-PSG y Barça-Inter, para dar paso a una final en la que el conjunto blaugrana se llevaría el título ante Luis Enrique. El Madrid caería en cuartos de final. Mbappé no tendría su ansiada Champions. Dembélé caería en la finalísima ante su exequipo. Y el Barça lograría levantar este trofeo 10 años después.

El Borussia Dortmund parte como el tapado de estos cuartos de final. El superordenador sólo le da 1,5% de posibilidades de ganar la competición, con un 21,8% de pasar a semis. También le da pocas esperanzas al Aston Villa de Unai Emery y Marco Asensio, que se enfrentaría al cuadro parisino en cuartos de final (equipo que lo cedió a los ‘villanos’). Los de Birmingham tienen únicamente un 3,7% de posibilidades de conquistar la competición, con un 28,7% de pasar a semifinales. 

Predicciones del superordenador de Opta

Predicciones del superordenador de Opta

Opta apunta al doblete culé

El superordenador también ha actualizado sus predicciones en LaLiga, donde da como amplio favorito al Barça con un 85,2% de posibilidades. Para Opta, el Madrid no llega. Tan sólo ganaría esta Liga una de cada diez veces (12,4%). Por parte del Atlético de Madrid, sus opciones son prácticamente nulas, con un 2,4%. Hansi Flick firmaría un primer año en Barcelona con al menos un doblete de Liga y Champions.

¿Cómo funciona el superordenador de Opta?

El modelo estima la probabilidad de cada resultado del partido (victoria, empate o derrota) utilizando las cuotas del mercado de apuestas y el Power Ranking de Opta. Las cuotas y las clasificaciones se basan en el rendimiento histórico y reciente de los equipos. La competición se simula 10.000 veces para generar una proyección final para cada equipo.

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