Vlad Guerrero Jr. contract extension: Four big questions for Blue Jays after locking up franchise cornerstone

The Toronto Blue Jays have reached an agreement with star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a 14-year extension worth $500 million. The deal will keep Guerrero in Toronto well beyond this winter, when he would’ve qualified for free agency, on what amounts to the second-most lucrative contract in Major League Baseball history.

Guerrero’s future with the Blue Jays had been the single biggest question facing the club for at least the last few months, if not longer. With an answer firmly in place, we figured this would be a good time to address some other questions folks might have about Toronto — including if the Blue Jays have enough talent to win this season, and who might be next to sign a long-term pact.

Let’s get to it.

1. Can they compete?

Even after missing out on Juan Soto and a number of other top free agents, and even with the specter of Guerrero’s impending free agency dangling overhead, the Blue Jays found a way to have an active offseason. They traded for second baseman Andrés Giménez and outfielder Myles Straw, signed outfielder Anthony Santander and right-handers Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman, and generally behaved like a team that was trying to position itself for a playoff run this season.

It’s too early to know if the Blue Jays have the horses to make it to October, but the early returns have been a mixed bag. Toronto is 5-5 to begin the year, complete with a minus-6 run differential that represents the worst in the American League East. Two of the leading forecast models — Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA and FanGraphs’ ZiPS — have the Blue Jays finishing between 82 and 84 wins. In 2024, 86 wins were required to qualify for the American League side of the bracket.

On the one hand, that means the Blue Jays are a few upgrades and a couple of happy breaks away from making good on their postseason intentions. On the other, it means that the Blue Jays could author the kind of inconsistent, at times frustrating summer that their recent iterations became known for. We suppose that’s still a kinder fate than the 74-88 campaign they put forth last season. 

2. How much help is on the way?

For as much attention as external additions receive during the summer — the trade deadline is a popular time of the year for a reason — it’s often internal reinforcements that make or break a season. Those internal options tend to be easier to count on, too, since there are few variables in play. (Think: a team performing better than expected and taking a player off the market, or something similar to the Garrett Crochet situation last deadline.) Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, their farm system appears to be lacking with regards to players who could make a sizable impact over the course of the season.

Shortstop and top prospect Arjun Nimmala is years away from being big-league relevant; lefty Ricky Tiedemann is expected to miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery; and third baseman Will Wagner and outfielder Alan Roden are already in the big-league lineup. That leaves a few pitchers — namely Jake Bloss (who had a rough spring) and Trey Yesavage (yet to make his official professional debut) — as the best prospects in the system who could reach the majors in 2025.

That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays are without their share of interesting depth pieces — they have Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, and Orelvis Martinez stationed in Triple-A alone — but it does mean they may have to go outside the organization this summer if they need to add more impact to their roster.

3. Who else could Toronto extend?

Keep in mind, Guerrero isn’t the first player the Blue Jays have locked into an extension in the past month. In late March, they signed backstop Alejandro Kirk to a new five-year pact worth nearly $60 million. It stands to reason that the Blue Jays might keep the extension train rolling. 

Just who might be next? The answer could be outfielder Daulton Varsho.

Indeed,  the Blue Jays are “expected to explore an extension with Varsho before he reaches free agency” after the 2026 season, according to MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson. Varsho, 28, is an outstanding defensive outfielder who has hit .217/.289/.398 (91 OPS+) in his first two seasons with the Blue Jays. He’s currently on the injured list recovering from shoulder surgery he underwent last September.

4. What about Bichette?

All this talk about extensions and Guerrero might lead you to wonder — what about that other homegrown Blue Jays star? At least for now, there doesn’t appear to be anything new to report as it pertains to shortstop Bo Bichette reaching a long-term agreement of his own.

Rather, “Bichette is expected to play out the season before hitting the open market” reported ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Monday. 

There’s a lot of ball to be played this year but Bichette, 27,  is in the early stages of rebounding from a down 2024. In his first 10 games, he’s hitting .286/.348/.357 (102 OPS+). Earlier this spring, CBS Sports predicted BIchette could land a seven-year pact worth $185 million with a successful return to form. Whether or not that comes to fruition — and from the Blue Jays — remains to be seen.