Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Twins starter against Royals at plus odds

The red-hot Chicago Cubs look for another strong performance from Shota Imanaga on Wednesday as they attempt to complete a three-game sweep of the visiting Texas Rangers at Wrigley Field. Imanaga (2-0, 0.98 ERA) has been one of the top starters in the major leagues in the first two weeks of the 2025 season, allowing only two runs and seven hits over 18 1/3 innings in his first three outings. The 31-year-old Japanese left-hander has worked at least seven frames in each of his last two turns, recording a victory in both. Imanaga will be opposed by Tyler Mahle (1-0, 1.35), who is coming off a win against the Tampa Bay Rays in which he yielded just one hit and struck out five batters in five scoreless innings. The NL Central-leading Cubs have won seven of their last eight games.

The Imanaga-Mahle pitching matchup is only one of 15 on Wednesday’s MLB slate. Some of the other top matchups include Yankees‘ Max Fried (1-0, 2.61) facing the Tigers‘ Jack Flaherty (1-0, 2.38), the Padres‘ Randy Vasquez (0-1, 1.69) taking on the Athletics‘ Osvaldo Bido (1-0, 2.70) and the Brewers‘ Tyler Alexander (1-0, 2.00) squaring off against the Rockies‘ Antonio Senzatela (0-1, 0.00).

For the Imanaga-Mahle matchup, sportsbooks have set Imanaga’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5, while Mahle’s is 4.5. Neither prop, however, rates better than 3.5 stars on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Imanaga Under 5.5 strikeouts rates as a 3.5, while Mahle Over 4.5 rates as a 3.

However, there are four pitcher strikeout player props for Wednesday that the model has rated at 4.5 or better, including two that rate as 5s. Here they are:

Tylor Megill Under 6.5 strikeouts (-136) vs. Marlins (1:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Five Mets pitchers combined to record 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s 10-5 victory against the Marlins, with starter Clay Holmes registering 10 in 5 1/3 innings. Miami enters Wednesday having struck out 108 times to rank eighth in the majors. But Megill, who fanned eight batters across 4 2/3 innings in his lone outing against the Marlins last season, failed to record more than six strikeouts in each of his first two turns in 2025.

Hunter Brown Under 7.5 strikeouts (-158) vs. Mariners (4:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts

Brown finished just Under this number in his season debut against the Mets, recording seven strikeouts, and fanned eight batters in a victory over the Twins in his last outing. The 26-year-old right-hander has registered 27 strikeouts over 22 1/3 innings in four career turns against the Mariners, but Seattle struck out 19 times in Tuesday’s 12-inning loss and will be eager to correct its issues at the plate and put the ball in play more often as it attempts to win the rubber match of the three-game series.

Joe Ryan Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts

Ryan lasted only five innings in each of his first two starts this year, but he is averaging more than a strikeout per frame. The 28-year-old right-hander fanned five batters over five innings in his season debut against the Cardinals and recorded six strikeouts versus the Astros in his last outing. Ryan registered 14 strikeouts over 12 1/3 frames in two turns against the Royals last campaign and has 55 across 48 1/3 innings in eight career starts versus Kansas City. 

Tyler Alexander Over 4.5 strikeouts (-119) vs. Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

The Rockies enter Wednesday having struck out 112 times in their first 10 games of the season, which ties them for third-most in the majors. They have fanned at least nine times in nine of those contests and reached double digits on eight occasions. Five Milwaukee pitchers combined to record 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s series opener, marking the third time the Rockies have hit that number already. Alexander has registered nine strikeouts over 9 1/3 innings in three career games against Colorado – including one relief appearance – and fanned six batters across 5 2/3 frames versus the Reds last Friday in his first start of 2025, making this a good bet if the 30-year-old left-hander works at least five innings.