Stanley Cup Playoffs futures: Best bets, longshots, teams to avoid for the 2025 postseason

With one week remaining in the 2024-25 NHL regular season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. One first-round series for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs already is set, as the Carolina Hurricanes will meet the New Jersey Devils in a battle between Metropolitan Division rivals. 

Carolina entered Thursday with a seven-point lead for second place and home-ice advantage in the matchup. The Washington Capitals have clinched the top spot in the division and are the favorites to finish first in the Eastern Conference, which would set up a series against the second wild-card team. That’s looking like it will be the Montreal Canadiens, who are eight points ahead of four other clubs for the spot and three behind the Ottawa Senators for the first wild card with four games remaining.

Ottawa has secured a postseason berth and still is chasing the defending Stanley Cup champions Florida Panthers for third place in the Atlantic Division. Florida, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning – who trail Toronto by three points for first in the Atlantic – also have punched their ticket to the playoffs.

Five teams have secured postseason berths in the Western Conference, including the Central Division’s Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche. Winnipeg began Thursday with a three-point lead over Washington in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy and is four in front of Dallas in the Central. The Avalanche trail the Stars by six points for second place.

The Vegas Golden Knights are six points in front of the Los Angeles Kings for the top spot in the Pacific Division, with both already clinching playoff berths. The Edmonton Oilers haven’t locked up a postseason spot yet but are only two points behind the Kings in the Pacific, while the Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues both are five ahead of the Calgary Flames for the wild cards in the West.

Most sportsbooks list Dallas at +600 to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1999. Florida also is being strongly considered to repeat, listed at +650 by some oddsmakers and the +600 favorite at bet365. The Panthers’ chances may hinge on the status of Matthew Tkachuk, who has been sidelined since suffering a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off in February but is targeting the start of the playoffs for his return.

Although all of the first-round playoff matchups haven’t been determined yet, we’ll take a look at the best bets to win the Stanley Cup, as well as who to avoid.

Best bet to win Stanley Cup

Vegas Golden Knights (+1100, DraftKings)

Repeating as champion is more common in the NHL than in the NFL or MLB, but the uncertainty of Tkachuk’s health could present a problem for Florida. There’s a good chance Dallas will face Colorado in its first-round series, which will be anything but a sure victory and could significantly drain the Stars should they move on. Winnipeg has advanced past the first round just once in the last six seasons, Los Angeles hasn’t done so since winning the Cup in 2014 and Edmonton just doesn’t have enough in the crease or on the blue line despite its run to Game 7 of the Final last season. In my mind, all of that makes Vegas the best option to emerge from the Western Conference and get past whichever team represents the East. A total of 15 players remain from the Golden Knights’ 2023 Cup-winning team, including netminder Adin Hill, who unexpectedly took the reins in the second round of that postseason due to an injury to Laurent Brossoit and finished third in the voting for the Conn Smythe Trophy. Jack Eichel was runner-up for the award and has been an offensive force this season, already setting career highs with 66 assists and 93 points.

Best longshot

Toronto Maple Leafs (+1400, FanDuel)

Once you’re done laughing, take a look at what the Maple Leafs have done this campaign. They’ve surpassed their win total (46) from 2023-24. They rank in the top 10 in goals with 254, despite the fact Auston Matthews has missed 15 games and has netted only 30 tallies — 39 fewer than his league-leading total last season. They have suffered three straight regulation losses only twice all campaign and have gone back-to-back games without a point just two times since the end of January. They’ve done all this in their first year under Craig Berube, who guided the St. Louis Blues from last in the NHL to a Stanley Cup championship in 2019 while serving as their interim head coach. They’ve also accomplished the feats with a goaltending duo of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, with the latter ranking among the league leaders in save percentage (.922, second) and goals-against average (2.28, fourth). The 31-year-old Stolarz won the Cup as a backup with Florida last postseason and would love nothing more than to help Toronto capture its first championship since 1967.

Team to avoid

Washington Capitals (+1000, Caesars)

The Capitals have been one of the top teams in the NHL for the majority of the season and could win the Presidents’ Trophy for the fourth time in franchise history. Alex Ovechkin’s quest to overtake Wayne Gretzky for the all-time lead in goals elevated the excitement around the club, as have career-best offensive performances from Tom Wilson (32 goals), Aliaksei Protas (30), Connor McMichael (25) and defenseman Jakob Chychrun (20). But Washington hasn’t escaped the first round of the playoffs since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018 and hasn’t recorded a postseason victory since 2022, as it failed to qualify two years ago and was swept by the New York Rangers in the opening round last campaign. Charlie Lindgren posted a 3.58 GAA and .864 SP in that playoff series, the first of his career. Logan Thompson also made his postseason debut in 2024, going 2-2 for Vegas in its first-round loss to Dallas. It’s looking like the Capitals would have a first-round matchup with Montreal, against whom they went 2-0-1 this season. They would face either Carolina or New Jersey in the second round. Washington lost two of its first three meetings with the Hurricanes this campaign and split its four games against the Devils. Even if the Caps advance to the conference final, I don’t like their chances to win it all.