NFL Draft Trends: How explosive play rate influences defensive back picks

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• Big plays allowed lead to early draft investments in the secondary: Since 2014, 87% of teams that allowed explosive pass plays at a 16.0% rate or higher missed the playoffs, and 64% of those teams addressed their secondary with a defensive back in Rounds 1–3 the following spring.

• Bad pass defenses almost always trigger early DB picks: From 2019 to 2023, 71% of teams that struggled to contain big pass plays used a top-three-round pick on a cornerback or safety the next year, with 19 of those selections coming in the first two rounds.

Explosive pass plays have derailed defenses — and playoff hopes — across the NFL in recent years.

Since 2014, teams that allowed explosive pass plays — defined as completions of 15 or more yards — at a rate of 16.0% or higher have missed the playoffs 87% of the time. Unsurprisingly, many of those teams responded by targeting defensive backs early in the following draft.

From 2019 to 2023, 31 teams allowed explosive pass rates at or above that 16% threshold. Of those, 22 teams (71%) used a top-three-round pick the next year to help shore up their secondary, often addressing the issue quickly. Nineteen of those picks came in the first two rounds, with Houston (2022) and Detroit (2024) each doubling up on defensive backs before the end of Round 2.

Of the 21 defensive backs taken in the first two rounds, nine were first-rounders and 10 came off the board in Round 2.

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Since 2015, teams that allowed an explosive pass-play rate of 16.0% or higher have addressed their secondary early in the draft 64% of the time, with 42 of 66 such teams selecting a defensive back in Rounds 1–3. Among those picks, 17 came in the first round, 19 in the second and six came in the third.

In short, when a defense gives up big plays through the air, help for the secondary often follows in the draft.

Here are the three teams from the 2024 NFL season that allowed an explosive pass rate of 16.0% or higher and could be in the market for defensive back help this April.

Chicago Bears (17.7% explosive pass rate allowed in 2024)

Based on recent trends, it’s a near certainty that the Bears will use an early pick on a cornerback or safety in the 2025 NFL Draft. Every team that has finished last in explosive pass-play rate allowed since 2019 has selected a defensive back by the end of Round 3 in the following draft — and every team to allow a rate above 17% since 2014 has followed the same path.

Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are expected to be long-term pieces under Chicago’s new-look defensive coaching staff, now led by coordinator Dennis Allen. The rest of the secondary, however, remains uncertain.

Safety might be the biggest question mark. Kevin Byard enters the final year of his deal — and his 10th NFL season — while Jaquan Brisker missed most of 2024 due to recurring concussion issues and is also entering a contract year.

A first-round selection of Georgia’s Malaki Starks would make plenty of sense. Starks brings the kind of versatility Allen valued during his time in New Orleans, where safeties were frequently asked to align across the formation.

Carolina Panthers (17.6% explosive pass rate allowed in 2024)

The Panthers enter the 2025 NFL Draft with multiple defensive needs, and fixing their leaky pass defense should be a top priority. Despite facing the lowest pass-play rate in the league (53%), Carolina still allowed a league-high 35 passing touchdowns and struggled mightily to contain explosive plays through the air.

The offseason departures haven’t helped matters. Safety Xavier Woods, who led the team in interceptions each of the past two seasons, is gone. And while the addition of safety Tre’von Moehrig and the re-signing of cornerback Mike Jackson offer some hope, more reinforcements are needed around Jaycee Horn.

This draft class offers several options to boost the Panthers‘ secondary right away. Whether it’s Michigan’s Will Johnson or Texas’ Jahdae Barron at cornerback, or Georgia safety Malaki Starks, Carolina has a strong chance to land a difference-maker if they invest early.

Baltimore Ravens (16.1% explosive pass rate allowed in 2024)

The Ravens were one of the rare playoff teams to allow an explosive pass-play rate of 16.0% or higher, something that has only happened nine times since 2014. Of the previous eight teams in that group, five responded by drafting a defensive back within the first three rounds the following spring.

Baltimore’s 2024 defense was on a historic pace for explosive plays allowed through Week 10, surrendering them at an 18.2% clip. But a strategic adjustment — moving safety Kyle Hamilton into a deep safety role — helped stabilize things. From Week 11 on, the Ravens ranked ninth in the NFL with a much-improved 12.6% explosive pass rate.

What remains unclear is how defensive coordinator Zach Orr plans to deploy Hamilton moving forward. If the Ravens want to keep Hamilton roaming freely, they may look to bolster their secondary once again.

This wouldn’t be new territory. Baltimore selected Hamilton 14th overall in the 2022 draft after finishing 31st in explosive pass-play rate in 2021. They also double-dipped at cornerback later that same draft.

Given their history and league-wide draft trends, the Ravens are strong candidates to target another defensive back early in 2025.

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