Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is off to a strong start this season, ranked second in the majors with eight home runs. He has gone yard six times in his last seven games, including a two-homer performance against Cincinnati on Thursday. Raleigh will try to maintain his hot start when he faces Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios during the Saturday MLB schedule. The latest MLB prop bets at BetMGM Sportsbook price Raleigh at +350 to go yard again, so should you add him to your MLB HR picks?
Berrios has allowed five home runs through his first four starts, so he might be a pitcher to target with MLB home run picks today. Other Seattle players to consider for MLB home run bets include Julio Rodriguez (+450), Randy Arozarena (+500) and Luke Raley (+525). With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It went 2-for-3 in HR bets Monday, hitting on Shohei Ohtani at +290 and Bobby Witt at +340, then hit Tyler Soderstrom for a +370 payout on Tuesday, Matt Mervis (+525) on Wednesday, Junior Caminero (+520) on Thursday and Francisco Lindor (+500) on Friday. The SportsLine Projection Model has nailed a HR prop in nine of the last 11 days and is up 24.65 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Saturday. These three picks can be parlayed for +13375 odds and would pay out $668.75 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Matt Mervis (+390)
The first baseman has been the only consistent power producer in Miami’s lineup this season, crushing six home runs in his first 46 at-bats. Four of those homers have come in his last seven games, including one against Arizona on Wednesday. The wind is expected to be blowing out to right field in Philadelphia today, giving the left-handed slugger another edge.
“Mervis has some solid value at +390 on FanDuel considering it’s as low as +300 in other books. Our model sets the line for a Mervis home run at +300, suggesting there’s a solid edge here,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “He was overmatched yesterday against Zack Wheeler — no shame in that — but he gets a much softer matchup today against Taijuan Walker.”
Junior Caminero (+450)
Caminero leads Tampa Bay with five home runs so far this season, cashing a prop for SportsLine’s model against the Yankees on Thursday. Like Mervis, Caminero has four homers in his last seven games, and he is playing in ideal conditions on Saturday. He is facing Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco, who has a 5.94 ERA through his first four starts of the season. Carrasco has already allowed five home runs, so the model likes Caminero’s chances of going yard again on Saturday.
“Caminero is another enticing HR bet at +450 on FanDuel, with our model making the fair line closer to +368,” Fetner said. “Carlos Carrasco gave up just one hit in his last start, but that hit was a home run by Bobby Witt Jr. — and it cashed one of our HR props earlier this week. Carrasco is no longer the swing-and-miss pitcher he once was, and this is a favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly park.”
Alex Bregman (+450)
The 31-year-old had his first multi-homer game of the season on Tuesday at Tampa Bay, driving in four runs in that contest. He is now up to four home runs this season, and he is facing a rookie pitcher on Saturday. Additionally, Bregman is playing in warm conditions in Boston, where the wind is projected to be blowing out. The model has spotted value on Bregman leaving the yard in this matchup.
“Bregman has been locked in at the plate — just two games ago he went 5-for-5 with two home runs, and while he didn’t homer yesterday, he drew two walks and didn’t strike out once, which indicates he’s seeing the ball well. He’ll face rookie Shane Smith today, who has yet to allow a home run in the majors, but he is in a tough spot against a strong Boston lineup today,” Fetner said. BetMGM has the best price at +450.
Want more MLB picks for Saturday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine. Need more? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, (58-27 roll on baseball picks). Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 9-4 on his last 13 MLB ATS picks and you can find all his latest selections here.
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