The 2025 NBA playoffs continue on Monday with a pair of Game 2 matchups. The New York Knicks will host the Detroit Pistons (+6.5, 220.5) at 7:30 p.m. ET after the Knicks used a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter in a come-from-behind 123-112 victory on Saturday. The Denver Nuggets will host the Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5, 217.5) at 10 p.m. ET after Denver’s 112-110 overtime victory on Saturday in Game 1. Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic became the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double this season and finished one rebound shy of a triple-double in Game 1 after posting 29 points, nine rebounds and 12 assists. He could be a popular selection for NBA player props and with a points + rebounds + assists over/under of 49.5 for Monday, should you include him in Monday NBA prop bets? Jokic is also +135 to record a triple-double on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Mikal Bridges Over 15.5 points (-114)
The Knicks small forward scored just eight points on nine field-goal attempts in Game 1, but Oh expects a bounce-back performance from Bridges, which was often the norm throughout the regular season following a single-digit scoring effort. The model projects Bridges for 18.2 points on Monday and he averaged 17.6 points per game this season. With an over/under below both his projection and season average, this could have strong value. Bridges also averaged more points at home (19.3 ppg) this season and he scored at least 16 points in 28 of 42 home games (66.7%,), including 13 of his final 17 home contests
“He was significantly outplayed by the duo of Malik Beasley and Tobias Harris and I see Bridges responding well in Game 2,” Oh said. “The last time he scored eight points (at Cleveland on April 2), he bounced back with 20 the next game. Back on March 6, he only put up six vs the Lakers and he responded with 22 the next day vs the Clippers.” You can find his over/under as low as 14.5 points at some sportsbooks at a juiced price, but Oh recommends going with the Over 15.5 for a better payout. Caesars offers the best odds on Over 15.5 points at -114.
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 5.5 points (-115)
Oh notes that this over/under is seven points lower than where it was a few weeks ago and with the Clippers guard scoring just seven total points over his last three games, the drop isn’t a total shock. He’s found himself in foul trouble lately, including four fouls over just 12 minutes in Game 1. But he’s been an important complementary piece for Los Angeles since being acquired via trade from the Hawks, averaging 12 ppg and going Over 5.5 points in 25 of 28 games with the Clippers before his last three contests.
“I am willing to literally bet on the guy I saw in that Netflix documentary, ‘Court of Gold’ to score six points in a gotta have it game,” Oh said. “Norman Powell has not been quite the same since missing a stretch in January and if Nicolas Batum and Kris Dunn aren’t hitting from three (combined for 5-for-11 in Game 1), then they should go back to depending on Bogdanovic.” He is -115 on BetMGM to score at least six points.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 18.5 points + rebounds (-105)
Porter struggled and wasn’t aggressive with his shot in Game 1, scoring just three points on one made three-pointer on four total shot attempts with four rebounds over 26 minutes, but that’s not the norm for the 26-year-old Nuggets forward. Porter averaged 18.2 points and seven rebounds per game this season, including 18.3 points and 7.6 rebounds over his final seven games of the regular season. He can clear this number even without the rebounds, so the ability to get both his points and rebounds basically at what he’s been averaging in scoring this season presents strong value.
The model projects Porter at 23.4 points + rebounds on Monday despite his poor Game 1. The Clippers have the No. 4 scoring defense (108.3 points per game) this season, but Porter has actually performed even better against top defenses lately. He’s gone over his points + rebounds total in four of his last five games against a top 10 defense, averaging 24.8 points + rebounds in those contests. DraftKings is offering this play at -105, while other sportsbooks have added more juice to make this Over -110 on their betting apps.
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