MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals, April 22

Certainly felt like déjà vu yesterday, falling unexpectedly in the latter innings of the first over/under bet before claiming a win on an under in the nightcap. That’s happened two days in a row, but today brings about only one total to have funds on.

At Kauffman Stadium this evening, the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals will commence their interleague three-game set. There’s an enticing pitching matchup in the series opener, with Ryan Feltner taking on Kris Bubic.

The story of Bubic is an interesting one. He debuted during the 60-game COVID season and manufactured respectable results as a rookie, pitching to a 4.32 ERA in 10 starts while registering nearly a strikeout per frame (49 Ks in 50 innings).

Bubic’s performance the next couple of seasons gradually dropped off, but he did begin showing signs of finally harnessing his talents in the 2023 campaign with three promising outings. Unfortunately, the former first-round draft pick then got hurt and required Tommy John surgery, costing him more than a full calendar year of action.

Late last season is when Bubic would return — as a reliever — and the 27-year-old fared very well in his limited innings, etching a 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an eye-opening strikeout rate of 11.6 K/9 in 27 appearances.

Fortunately, the decision was made to have Bubic return to the rotation, which he also earned with a very encouraging spring training — so encouraging, in fact, that the left-hander was personally one of my top three sleepers entering the season.

Bubic has delivered well thus far for those of us who labeled him a breakout candidate. Yes, it’s only been four starts, but it seems he’s picking up from where he left off a year ago, honing a 1.88 ERA. Furthermore, Bubic is limiting opposing batters to a mere .217 average and still maintaining a healthy strikeout rate (10.1 K/9). Both marks are far better than what he’s ever churned out previously as a starter.

In his quest to keep it going, Bubic is getting a light-hitting adversary tonight. Normally, that’s not a term that would be applied to the Rockies, but that’s the state of affairs with Denver baseball these days. They’re third from the bottom of baseball in runs scored (68) and near the bottom in team batting average (.218), on-base percentage (.289) and slugging percentage (.350).

Colorado is also struggling against left-handed pitching. Not only are they hitting .215 off southpaws, but they’ve also punched out 65 times in 186 at-bats with a lefty on the hill — that’s a rate of more than once every three ABs!

Surprisingly, the Royals are also off to a tough start at the plate. K.C. is tied for the fewest runs scored (67) in the league and its collective .210 batting average ranks third worst.

Do we have a starting pitcher on the rubber that can keep them down? I think we do.

Feltner is arguably the best pitcher in the Rockies’ rotation, establishing himself last year with a 4.49 ERA across 30 starts — including a standout 3.00 ERA in 10 assignments following the All-Star break. His 1.15 WHIP through this stretch was impressive, too.

Of note, the former Ohio State Buckeye threw the ball a lot better on the road compared to hitter-friendly Coors Field. In 15 road outings, Feltner constructed a 3.93 ERA and generally kept batters in check by yielding a .234/.306/.375 slash line. Bettors should feel alright backing him away from Colorado.

I was really hoping this game would draw a total of 9. If this were the very beginning of the season, it probably would have, but given Bubic’s emergence, he’s starting to get more respect now from the oddsmakers. Anyhow, at 8.5, I’m still on it.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-122, FanDuel)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 16-14-1, -0.69 unit
Over/Unders: 14-10-1
Props: 2-3
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Reds-Marlins Under 8 (“loss”), Brewers-Giants Under 8 (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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