Blues need more offense, not just home ice advantage, in Game 3 against the Jets

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ST. LOUIS — After two days off, the St. Louis Blues are looking forward to being at Enterprise Center for Game 3 of their Western Conference series against the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday night.

It will be their first home playoff game since May 27, 2022, when the Colorado Avalanche’s Darren Helm scored with 5.6 seconds remaining in regulation for a 3-2 win in Game 6, sending the Avs into the conference finals and the Blues into the offseason.

St. Louis missed the playoffs the past two years and has played the first two games against the Jets at Canada Life Centre, where there may be no better home-ice advantage in the NHL than the team’s “Whiteout.” The Blues lost both and trail the best-of-seven series 2-0.

But now it’s their turn, and they’ve been lights-out at Enterprise Center, winning their last 12 regular-season games.

“I hope it will be like the last two months,” Blues forward Pavel Buchnevich said. “It brings energy to the building and everybody is pumped up, goose bumps and stuff.”

If there’s one team in the league, however, that doesn’t seem bothered not being at home, it’s the Jets, who won an NHL-best 26 road games this season. That includes two wins in St. Louis: 3-2 on Oct. 22 and 4-3 in a Feb. 22 shootout.

There’s an old saying in the NHL playoffs that the series hasn’t started until the home team loses, and the Blues hope that’s the case. But there’s another adage that if you can’t win the five-on-five scoring battle, you can’t win in the playoffs, and if they don’t change that soon, this series will be over anyway.

In the first two games, at five-on-five, the Jets have outshot the Blues (39-26), had more high-danger chances (20-7) and outscored them (5-1). The Blues’ only five-on-five goal came from Oskar Sundqvist (assisted by Justin Faulk and Zack Bolduc) in Game 1. Their other three goals in the series have come on the power play.

“We’ve got to get to their blue paint better,” Blues coach Jim Montgomery said. “We’ve got to sustain more O-zone time. Those are two things that we definitely have to do better.”

Let’s take a look at the Blues’ offensive heat map, courtesy of Hockey Viz. The chart illustrates where the shots (red) are coming five-on-five, and as you can see, there’s a lot on the perimeter and not much inside.

In Game 1, a 5-3 loss to Winnipeg, the Blues were credited with just 17 shots on goal.

Here’s a breakdown of who took the team’s even-strength shots, according to Hockey Viz, and from where on the ice.

In Game 2, a 2-1 loss, the Blues were credited with 22 shots on goal. Here’s a similar breakdown of who took the team’s even-strength shots and from where.

Montgomery gave the Jets credit and took some blame for the Blues’ lack of work on the inside.

“We’ve talked a lot about defending our net, but I don’t think we’ve talked enough, as a coaching staff, myself in particular, about being heavy at their net-front,” he said.

But this shouldn’t be something where the Blues need a reminder.

In the team’s late-season turnaround, Montgomery often complimented the forecheck and the frequency with which players were driving to the net to create offense. Yet against the Jets, that’s been non-existent.

“It’s not about (being) physical,” Buchnevich said. “We have to get out from the corners. We have to spread them and get some good shots with the bodies in front. Sometimes (the Blues defense) gets the puck, and the forwards are still in the corner. Basically, (the Jets) box out before the shot is coming and (Connor) Hellebuyck sees most of the shots. It’s hard to score like that.”

In Game 2, with the score tied 1-1 in the second period, the Blues had possession in the offensive zone and spent most of the time on the left side of the ice.

There’s a point where forwards Jordan Kyrou and Brayden Schenn are attempting to control the puck in tight quarters along the wall, drawing the attention of multiple Jets. Eventually, defenseman Cam Fowler has the puck at the point, but he’s forced to put it deep and hope for the best. Buchnevich loses the battle on the end boards, and after a turnover by Kyrou, the Jets exit the zone.

“That’s what I mean, we have to spread the zone and get more possession time,” Buchnevich said. “We chip the puck, and we have two against four, two against five. It’s hard to win the puck. We have to make one against one, or two against two, and it will make offense easy for us.”

Also in Game 2, with the Jets leading 2-1 in the third period, the Blues had the potential of creating some offense when Buchnevich got in on the forecheck and Robert Thomas knocked down the clearing attempt. Kyrou provided support for Thomas on the wall, so his positioning helped them maintain possession. But with all three forwards on the same side of the ice, the Jets were easily able to defend the situation and exit the zone after Buchnevich turned the puck over.

As a result, all the Blues’ top-six forwards — Buchnevich, Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Jimmy Snuggerud and Jake Neighbours — are still without a point at five-one-five in the series.

“Obviously, it starts with more possession in the O-zone, hanging onto pucks longer,” Neighbours said. “They’ve got a really good goalie, and you can’t make it easy on him. You’ve got to get to the net and make it harder for him to see pucks and create chaos around him.

“They’ve got some good D-men that are strong and try to hold you to the outside. It’s no excuse. You’ve got to find a way to get there, bang in some greasy ones and help your team. I thought it got better from Game 1 to Game 2, and hopefully, taking another step heading into Game 3.”

Thomas didn’t practice Wednesday, but Montgomery said he “will be a player” in Game 3. Even if he’s in the lineup, it’s evident he’s limited by the lower-body injury that caused him to leave the team’s last regular-season game.

Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel has sought to keep the Jets’ top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Alex Iafallo on the ice against Thomas’ line, perhaps because the Blues center is ailing. But since Game 3 will be at Enterprise Center, Montgomery will have the last line change and may elect to put Schenn’s line out against Scheifele’s line. Whoever it is, the line must be more physical on the Jets. In the series, the team has five goals at five-on-five, and Connor (2), Scheifele (1) and Iafallo (1) have four of them.

“We have to be harder on Connor and Scheifele,” Montgomery said. “They’ve scored the winning goal both nights. They’re making plays on us down low. So yes, we have to be harder.”

The Jets have certainly been tough on the Blues’ top six, highlighted by defenseman Logan Stanley leveling Kyrou in Game 2.

But it wasn’t just that blast.

In Game 2, the Blues’ top line of Snuggerud, Thomas and Buchnevich were on the receiving end of four hits, with an additional five hits laid on the second line. Meanwhile, the Blues hit Connor, Scheifele and Iafallo a combined once.

“If the play was there, we try to be physical,” Buchnevich said. “We have to still play hockey.”

“You’ve just got to be harder on them,” Neighbours said. “(Connor and Scheifele) are two guys that not only have a ton of talent, but they compete really hard and they care a lot. You’ve got to be strong in there, take away their time and space and try and frustrate them.”

There could be one lineup change, however. After the Blues went with 11 forwards and seven defensemen in Game 2, they had Alexandre Texier on the third line with Sundqvist and Bolduc on Wednesday, so they could go back to 12 forwards and six defensemen to insert Texier. He hasn’t played since March 27, sitting out the past 10 games, but Montgomery believes he could come in and help the offense.

“He has incredible self-belief and confidence,” Montgomery said. “He is very, very high-end with the puck. He does things in practice that not a lot of players that I’ve seen, that I’ve had the fortune of coaching, be able to do what he does.”

The Blues are returning home where, again, they’ve won 12 games in a row. But that will matter little if they don’t improve in several areas against the Jets, who are looking more and more like a Stanley Cup contender.

“It’s playoffs now,” Montgomery said. “We have to start a win streak in the playoffs.”

(Top photo of Nathan Walker: Cameron Bartlett / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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