The No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs on Saturday afternoon. Cleveland cruised to a 121-100 win in Game 1 before notching a 121-112 win in Game 2. Miami advanced to the first round with wins over Chicago and Atlanta in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament, but it desperately needs a win on Saturday to keep its hopes of advancing alive. Game 4 of this series will take place on Monday in Miami.
Tipoff on Saturday is set for 1 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami. The Cavaliers are favored by 5.5 points in the latest Heat vs. Cavaliers odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 213. Cleveland is -225 on the money line. Before making any Cavaliers vs. Heat picks for the 2025 NBA playoffs, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Miami vs. Cleveland. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Cavaliers vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -5.5 on FanDuel
- Heat vs. Cavaliers over/under: 213 points
- Heat vs. Cavaliers money line: Cavaliers -225, Heat +188
- MIA: The Heat are 13-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last 18 games
- CLE: The Cavaliers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
- Heat vs. Cavaliers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Heat vs. Cavaliers streaming: FuboTV (try for free)
Why the Heat can cover
Miami struggled throughout Game 1 and trailed by 17 points at halftime of Game 2, but the Heat are coming off their best half of the series. They outscored the Cavaliers by eight points in the second half on Wednesday, using that run to cover the spread as 12-point underdogs. Point guard Tyler Herro poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting while adding six rebounds and five assists.
Point guard Davion Mitchell had 18 points and six assists, while center Bam Adebayo posted a double-double with 11 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is the most experienced coach in this year’s playoffs, giving Miami an edge when it comes to quick adjustments. The Heat have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games, and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings between these teams. See which team to pick here.
Why the Cavaliers can cover
Cleveland raced out to a seven-point lead at the end of the first quarter in Game 1 and never looked back, as the Heat did not win a single quarter of that contest. Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 30 points on 11 of 19 shooting, while Darius Garland added 27 points and five assists. The Cavaliers were well on their way to covering the spread again in Game 2 before taking their foot off the pedal.
They will be reminded of that late rally throughout the game on Saturday, which should keep them focused if they hold a big lead in the second half. Mitchell is coming off another strong performance, finishing with 30 points, six rebounds and six assists. The Cavaliers have won 15 of their last 20 road games, and Miami is just 1-7 in its last eight games against Central Division teams. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. Cavaliers picks
The model has simulated Cavs vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over the total, projecting 221 points, and it also says one side of the spread is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Cavaliers, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cavaliers vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 156-116 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.
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