NBA playoff odds, picks: Defense is key in Warriors vs. Rockets, Scotty Pippen Jr. gets his dimes for Memphis

The NBA playoffs continue Saturday with four games on the slate. The Miami Heat will host the surging Cleveland Cavaliers to get things started. Cleveland will look to stay hot in South Beach as they enter Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead. Next up is the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. OKC can deliver the Game 4 knockout punch in Memphis, which will be without ailing star Ja Morant. The third matchup will be the Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers as James Harden and Co. hold a 2-1 series lead. In the nightcap, the Golden State Warriors will try to grab the advantage in Game 3 at home against the Houston Rockets.

Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

We’ve reached the point in the series in which Cleveland’s strategy is so obvious that the players are talking about it in the media. Darius Garland admitted the Cavs are hunting Tyler Herro. Herro criticized Garland’s defense. If Garland were healthy, his over would be the obvious response. He has a sprained left big toe, so we’ll go back to our Game 2 bet of the Ty Jerome over (11.5 points). Donovan Mitchell will have his hands full with Davion Mitchell, but if Garland isn’t at full strength, we’ll lean on Jerome to do to Herro what he did in Game 1. The Pick: Jerome Over 11.5 Points

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

Scotty Pippen Jr. started 21 games this season and averaged 5.7 assists per game. Most of those starts came under Taylor Jenkins, when the offense was a bit more egalitarian. It has gone a bit more point guard-centric since Jenkins was fired, but with Ja Morant out, that leaves Pippen more room to rack up stats and play big minutes in an elimination game. He’s at such a size disadvantage against the Thunder that point props scare me, but the idea of him racking up assists makes plenty of sense. The Pick: Pippen Over 5.5 Assists

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers

Michael Porter Jr. is playing through a shoulder injury right now, which partially explains his quiet series against the Clippers. It’s too easy to accidentally find points in Denver’s offense because of Nikola Jokić’s passing, so we can’t take advantage of his limitations on pure point bets. What about 3-point props? He barely played in Game 1 and then he shot 1-of-6 from deep in Game 3. This line is low, but until Porter proves he’s healthy, I’m happy to short him. The Pick: Porter Under 1.5 3s

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

The Game 3 point total here is 204. Game 2, which featured 26 made 3-pointers, only got to 202. Easy offense is just going to be so hard to come by in this series, period, and without peak Jimmy Butler, who will either miss the game or play hurt, Golden State has no slower, more physical alternative to the motion that Houston has done such a good job of slowing down. The refs are letting Houston’s defense get away with anything. Until they start blowing their whistles, there’s just no reason to pick an over in this series. The Pick: Under 204