After a historic start to the 2025 NBA playoffs, the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder will try to sweep the 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. OKC first made history with a plus-70 point differential through the first two games of this series, the second-largest in NBA history. The Thunder went up 3-0 by overcoming a 29-point deficit in Game 3, also the second-biggest in postseason history. Much of Oklahoma City’s Game 3 rally came after Memphis’ Ja Morant (hip) exited the game after suffering a brutal fall, and the Grizzlies’ star is doubtful to suit up in Game 4.
Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET from the FedExForum in Memphis. Oklahoma City is a 15-point favorite in the latest Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 222.5. Before locking in any Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Grizzlies vs. Thunder on Saturday:
Grizzlies (+15) to cover the spread (-110 at FanDuel)
OKC’s margin of victory has gone from plus-51 (Game 1) to plus-19 (Game 2) to plus-six (Game 3), so Memphis has clearly identified ways in which to be more competitive. The Grizzlies dominated Game 3, for the most part, as the final 1:20 of the game was the only time that Oklahoma City led. Memphis did end up covering in Game 3, and the team has now covered in three straight home games. Scotty Pippen Jr. showed that he can handle a bigger workload in Game 3 as he notched a postseason career-high of 28 points, and the Thunder have covered in just two of six road games this year when favored by 13-plus points. Memphis is projected to cover in 60% of simulations, with -110 odds coming at FanDuel.
Bonus pick time: Top NBA expert Mike Barner is heating up! Get his best bets for Saturday here, all from the expert who is 144-97 on his last 241 NBA prop picks (+2988).
Under 222.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Under has hit in every game in this series, with at least 8 points to spare in each. Over these teams’ seven matchups in the regular plus postseason, the Under is 6-1. Favoring the Under goes back even further than that, however, as the Under is 11-2 over the last 13 Thunder vs. Grizzlies matchups. Both teams are shooting below their regular-season averages in both FG percentage and 3P percentage, which is often the case when teams turn up their defensive intensity in the postseason. The model projects both teams to score at least six points below their season averages as the Under hits over 60% of the time.
Bonus pick: You’ve seen the best bets for Grizzlies vs. Thunder on Saturday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that enters the NBA postseason on a 156-116 run on top-rated NBA picks.
Jalen Williams under 22.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
Williams averaged just under this at 21.6 points in the regular season, but Memphis has a top 10 defensive rating, and just three teams allowed a lower FG percentage in the regular season. Since making his postseason debut a year ago, Williams has gone under 22.5 points in 10 of 13 playoff games. He also isn’t quite as efficient with his shot on the road, as he’s connecting on 46.4% of FG attempts in away arenas, compared to 50.4% at home this season. The SportsLine Projection Model has Williams forecasted to finished with 20.4 points in Game 4.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
5 plays that powered Fernando Mendoza to the 2025 Heisman Trophy
Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy on Saturday night ahead of Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin.Mendoza has led Indiana to a 13-0 record, the school’s first Big Ten title since 1967 and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. Here are five of the plays that made him the school’s first Heisman winner.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement13-yard TD to Omar Cooper Jr. against Indiana StateLook, we know that games against FCS teams are generally viewed as stat-padding opportunities for players at top schools. But what Mendoza did against Indiana State over the first and second quarters in Week 3 was incredibly impressiveThis 13-yard throw to Omar Cooper Jr. was one of four touchdown passes Cooper caught in the 73-0 win over the Sycamores.As Cooper was open all day — he had 10 catches for […]
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Wins Historic 2025 Heisman Trophy Award
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza balled out this season and has been rewarded with some esteemed hardware.Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy Award on Saturday night, beating out fellow quarterbacks Julian Sayin (Ohio State) and Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.Mendoza is the first player in Hoosiers history to win the Heisman and just the second player in program history to finish as a finalist for the award; running back Anthony Thompson, a two-time All-American and two-time Big Ten Player of the Year, was the runner-up for the 1989 Heisman Trophy Award.The 6-foot-5 Mendoza has been at the center of the best season in Indiana history, with the Hoosiers (13-0) beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game last week and claiming the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.Through 13 games, Mendoza has […]
2025 Heisman Trophy: Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza becomes the school’s first Heisman winner
Fernando Mendoza is Indiana’s first Heisman Trophy winner.The junior quarterback beat Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin to win the 2025 Heisman on Saturday night. Mendoza won the award as Indiana went undefeated in the regular season, took down Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and is the No. 1 seed for the College Football Playoff.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"Standing here tonight, holding this bad boy, representing Indiana University still doesn't feel real," Mendoza said after winning the award. "If you told me as a kid in Miami, that I'd be here on stage holding this prestigious trophy, I probably would have laughed, cried like I'm doing now or both. Because this moment, it's an honor, it's bigger than me. It's a product of a family, team, community and a whole lot of […]
No. 22 Navy Executes Late to Earn Bragging Rights in Close Win vs. Army
Quarterback Blake Horvath threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Eli Heidenreich with 6:32 remaining — on fourth-and-goal — to help No. 22 Navy rally past Army, 17-16, on Saturday.Horvath turned the ball over twice, and his fumble near the goal line nearly spoiled Navy's key drive. On second down from the 1, the ball came loose when the Midshipmen (10-2) attempted a tush push, but Heidenreich fell on the ball back at the 8.After an incompletion, Navy — down 16-10 — decided to go for it on fourth down, and Horvath found his top receiving threat over the middle in the end zone.Army then had to punt, and on third-and-3 from the Army 43, the ball popped loose on a run by Horvath, but he was able to catch it out of the air and reach for the […]
Nebraska Hits Game-Winner vs. Illinois, Improves to 11-0 For 1st Time In History
Jamarques Lawrence hit a 3-point shot with less than a second remaining to give No. 23 Nebraska an 83-80 win over No. 13 Illinois on Saturday.The undefeated Huskers (11-0, 2-0 Big Ten) are off to the best start in program history. They won 10 in a row to start the 1977-78 season.Tomislav Ivicic's 3-pointer — his only points of the game — with 17 seconds to go deadlocked the game at 80-all for the Illini (8-3, 1-1), who trailed by as many as 10 points in the second half and 14 points in the first half.Lawrence finished with 14 points. Pryce Sandfort scored a career-high 32 points and Rienk Mast had 17 points and seven rebounds for the Huskers in their first road game of the season.Kylan Boswell scored 20 points for Illinois, which led for only 16 seconds early […]
Brandon Aiyuk’s 2025 season officially ends with zero games played and Niners future in doubt
Brandon Aiyuk's 2025 will officially go down as a lost season. It also appears likely it will go down as his final year with the San Francisco 49ers.The Niners wide receiver was placed on the reserve/left squad list on Saturday, officially ending his season. He had previously spent the entire campaign on the physically unable to perform list while recovering from a torn ACL he sustained last year.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe exact circumstances of the move are unclear, but it's a designation that means what it says on the tin. Aiyuk is no longer with the team, without permission.It has been nearly 14 months since the Pro Bowler last appeared in a game for the Niners. His 2024 season ended prematurely with the torn ACL, but he was expected to come back this season and provide the downfield threat that earned him his […]
Related
5 plays that powered Fernando Mendoza to the 2025 Heisman Trophy
Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy on Saturday night ahead of Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin.Mendoza has led Indiana to a 13-0 record, the school’s first Big Ten title since 1967 and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. Here are five of the plays that made him the school’s first Heisman winner.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement13-yard TD to Omar Cooper Jr. against Indiana StateLook, we know that games against FCS teams are generally viewed as stat-padding opportunities for players at top schools. But what Mendoza did against Indiana State over the first and second quarters in Week 3 was incredibly impressiveThis 13-yard throw to Omar Cooper Jr. was one of four touchdown passes Cooper caught in the 73-0 win over the Sycamores.As Cooper was open all day — he had 10 catches for […]
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Wins Historic 2025 Heisman Trophy Award
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza balled out this season and has been rewarded with some esteemed hardware.Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy Award on Saturday night, beating out fellow quarterbacks Julian Sayin (Ohio State) and Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.Mendoza is the first player in Hoosiers history to win the Heisman and just the second player in program history to finish as a finalist for the award; running back Anthony Thompson, a two-time All-American and two-time Big Ten Player of the Year, was the runner-up for the 1989 Heisman Trophy Award.The 6-foot-5 Mendoza has been at the center of the best season in Indiana history, with the Hoosiers (13-0) beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game last week and claiming the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.Through 13 games, Mendoza has […]
2025 Heisman Trophy: Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza becomes the school’s first Heisman winner
Fernando Mendoza is Indiana’s first Heisman Trophy winner.The junior quarterback beat Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin to win the 2025 Heisman on Saturday night. Mendoza won the award as Indiana went undefeated in the regular season, took down Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and is the No. 1 seed for the College Football Playoff.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"Standing here tonight, holding this bad boy, representing Indiana University still doesn't feel real," Mendoza said after winning the award. "If you told me as a kid in Miami, that I'd be here on stage holding this prestigious trophy, I probably would have laughed, cried like I'm doing now or both. Because this moment, it's an honor, it's bigger than me. It's a product of a family, team, community and a whole lot of […]
No. 22 Navy Executes Late to Earn Bragging Rights in Close Win vs. Army
Quarterback Blake Horvath threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Eli Heidenreich with 6:32 remaining — on fourth-and-goal — to help No. 22 Navy rally past Army, 17-16, on Saturday.Horvath turned the ball over twice, and his fumble near the goal line nearly spoiled Navy's key drive. On second down from the 1, the ball came loose when the Midshipmen (10-2) attempted a tush push, but Heidenreich fell on the ball back at the 8.After an incompletion, Navy — down 16-10 — decided to go for it on fourth down, and Horvath found his top receiving threat over the middle in the end zone.Army then had to punt, and on third-and-3 from the Army 43, the ball popped loose on a run by Horvath, but he was able to catch it out of the air and reach for the […]
Nebraska Hits Game-Winner vs. Illinois, Improves to 11-0 For 1st Time In History
Jamarques Lawrence hit a 3-point shot with less than a second remaining to give No. 23 Nebraska an 83-80 win over No. 13 Illinois on Saturday.The undefeated Huskers (11-0, 2-0 Big Ten) are off to the best start in program history. They won 10 in a row to start the 1977-78 season.Tomislav Ivicic's 3-pointer — his only points of the game — with 17 seconds to go deadlocked the game at 80-all for the Illini (8-3, 1-1), who trailed by as many as 10 points in the second half and 14 points in the first half.Lawrence finished with 14 points. Pryce Sandfort scored a career-high 32 points and Rienk Mast had 17 points and seven rebounds for the Huskers in their first road game of the season.Kylan Boswell scored 20 points for Illinois, which led for only 16 seconds early […]
Brandon Aiyuk’s 2025 season officially ends with zero games played and Niners future in doubt
Brandon Aiyuk's 2025 will officially go down as a lost season. It also appears likely it will go down as his final year with the San Francisco 49ers.The Niners wide receiver was placed on the reserve/left squad list on Saturday, officially ending his season. He had previously spent the entire campaign on the physically unable to perform list while recovering from a torn ACL he sustained last year.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe exact circumstances of the move are unclear, but it's a designation that means what it says on the tin. Aiyuk is no longer with the team, without permission.It has been nearly 14 months since the Pro Bowler last appeared in a game for the Niners. His 2024 season ended prematurely with the torn ACL, but he was expected to come back this season and provide the downfield threat that earned him his […]
Be the first to leave a comment