Kentucky Derby betting trends can be one way to predict the 2025 Kentucky Derby, especially when it comes to a horse’s last race. Most novice handicappers would expect that a horse who won their most recent prep race would be more likely to come out on top on the first Saturday in May, but history has shown otherwise. In fact, the last five winners of the Kentucky Derby run in May (Mystik Dan, Mage, Rich Strike, Mandaloun, and Country House) all lost their most recent race before the Kentucky Derby. If the trend continues, nine 2025 Kentucky Derby horses, including the 3-1 favorite, Journalism, can be sided against on Saturday in 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions. With so much to consider while making your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, a little expert help can go a long way.
Luxor Cafe (15-1) and Admire Daytona (30-1) have history working against them in the Kentucky Derby 2025. Horses who have qualified via Japan have never won the sport’s most prestigious race. Last year, Forever Young finished third by less than a length and T O Password finished fifth. In 2023, Derma Sotogake ran sixth and Mandarin Hero was 12th.
Luxor Cafe has one important factor going for him: He was sired by American Pharoah, who won the 2015 Kentucky Derby en route to the sport’s first triple crown in nearly four decades. Strangely, American Pharoah has never sired a Kentucky Derby starter before this year, when he has two: Luxor Cafe and Publisher (30-1).
Given all the history, there’s a method to picking which horses to focus on for exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets in a Kentucky Derby like this, and SportsLine expert Jody Demling knows what it is. He can help you make the best 2025 Kentucky Derby picks possible.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks could be up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby expert picks
Here’s a refresher on these types of bets from SportsLine’s Jody Demling:
Kentucky Derby Exacta: Pick the first- and second-place finishers in the correct order. A $2 exacta returned $258.56 at the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone.
Kentucky Derby Trifecta: Pick the first-, second- and third-place finishers in the correct order. A $1 trifecta returned $1,113.84 at the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
Kentucky Derby Superfecta: Pick the first-, second-, third- and fourth-place finishers in the correct order. A $1 superfecta returned a colossal $8,254 at the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Forever Young and Catching Freedom.
While Demling has no quibbles about the favorite status of Journalism (3-1), the Michael McCarthy-trained colt isn’t his top pick. Instead, he is building his tickets around Luxor Cafe (15-1) and an even bigger longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside,” spicing up his 2025 Kentucky Derby exotics. You can see his picks here.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets
Demling has specific recommendations for exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers so you can cover all your bases at the Kentucky Derby 2025. He’s sharing them over at SportsLine.
So which horses do you take? And in what combinations? Visit SportsLine to get Demling’s picks for exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures, horses, post positions
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