Three players have reached double-digit home runs so far this season, and they will all be in action during the Friday MLB schedule. Yankees slugger Aaron Judge joins Eugenio Suarez (Diamondbacks) and Cal Raleigh (Mariners) as the three players who have 10 home runs. Judge is +155 to go yard against Tampa Bay in the Friday MLB home run odds at BetMGM, while Suarez is +400 and Raleigh is +275. Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber (+220) and Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani (+240) both have short odds to homer on Friday night as well.
All 30 teams are in action on Friday night, so there are plenty of players to evaluate for MLB home run bets. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets last Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called home run props in 13 of the last 25 days and is up 25.6 units during that stretch. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +19736 odds and would pay out $986 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Matt Mervis, Marlins (+480)
Mervis is only batting .213 and has struck out 30 times this season, but he has also hit a team-high seven home runs. Almost half of his total hits (16) have been homers, so he tends to hit the ball hard when he makes contact. He is facing Athletics starting pitcher Gunnar Hoglund, who is making his MLB debut after six starts in Triple-A.
“We set the line at +410 for Mervis to hit a HR tonight, and you are getting a solid price at +480 on FanDuel,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said.
Christian Walker, Astros (+470)
Walker is off to a bit of a slow start with the Astros this season after hitting 26 home runs for Arizona in 2024. He is still tied for the team lead with four homers this year, and he just hit one against Detroit on Monday. Three of his four homers have come in his last 10 games, so he is starting to find a rhythm in Houston. Walker is facing White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, who has a 4.50 ERA and has allowed 23 home runs in his first two seasons (26 starts).
“Despite being a right-handed bat, Walker has slugged much better against RHPs since the start of last season. He has 26 of his 30 HRs against RHPs since last season,” Fetner said. “We set the line at around +350 for Walker to homer, so you are getting great value on this play.”
Michael Busch, Cubs (+500)
The 27-year-old plays for the league’s highest-scoring offense this season, which inherently gives him more plate appearances to hit home runs. He has not homered since April 19, but he has five long balls this season and is positioned well in the lineup. Busch is facing Brewers starter Quinn Priester, who has only allowed one home run in 2025. However, Priester had a 1.7 HR/9 prior to this season, so the model expects some regression from him.
“Busch rakes against RHP as a left-handed bat and has a .923 OPS and all 5 of his HRs this season against RHPs. In Priester’s short MLB career so far, left-handed hitters have a .320 batting average and a .967 OPS,” Fetner said.
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 86-42 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 8-3 over his last 11 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Friday.
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