More than 100,000 fans will flock to Churchill Downs for the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, with a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. This year’s Run for the Roses features a strong 2025 Kentucky Derby field, highlighted by Journalism, the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. However, the favorite has failed to win the last six editions of the Kentucky Derby and no horse has completed the Triple Crown since Justify in 2018. Can Journalism break the current trend and be one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to include in your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. It took Sandman five attempts to capture his first graded stakes victory. Sandman is the 11th starter for trainer Mark Casse, but he has yet to have a horse finish in the top three in the Kentucky Derby. Sandman is the son of Tapit, who despite being the all-time sire for prodigy earnings has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
Sandman has experience at Churchill Downs, but those don’t equate to happy memories. The horse is winless in three races at Churchill Downs, but will return after strong showings at Oaklawn Park. Sandman had two wins and finished in the top three in all four races at Oaklawn Park. However, Saturday’s environment will be significantly different from anything he witnessed in Arkansas. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Burnham Square won the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8 for his third victory over his last four starts, including his second graded stakes victory. Burnham Square won the Holy Bull on February 1 with a stretch run to defeat Tappan Street, who went on to win the Florida Derby. Tappan Street injured his leg in a workout, which has him out of the Kentucky Derby. Otherwise, Tappan Street likely would have been a popular Kentucky Derby bet, so knocking off the future Florida Derby winner is certainly an impressive victory for Burnham Square.
Burnham Square was toward the back of the seven-horse pack at the final turn of the Blue Grass Stakes before surpassing the field at the final moment with an incredible late run. Menez expects that closing speed displayed again as the further distance of a 1 1/4-mile race could play to Burnham Square’s advantage. At 12-1 odds, Menez sees value in Burnham Square for 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby contenders
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty
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