There are two Japan starters in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona. The former has gotten buzz as a horse racing longshot who could win the Run for the Roses, but Admire Daytona shouldn’t be overlooked as well. His jockey, Christophe Lemaire, placed 13th in his Kentucky Derby debut in 2022 before moving up to sixth place in 2023. If he continues that progression, then the 30-1 Admire Daytona could finish in the money at the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET.
Other 30-1 longshots in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds include Render Judgement and Coal Battle. Journalism is the favorite among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses 3-1, while Sandman is at 6-1. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.
In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. At 6-1, Sandman is the third-favorite, just as his sire, Tapit, was in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Tapit disappointed, finishing ninth in what was his first, and only, start at longer than 1 1/8 miles. Sandman will also make his first start at that longer distance on Saturday, and his pedigree doesn’t suggest he can handle it.
Not only does Sandman have pedigree concerns, but he has warning flags surrounding his 2025 Kentucky Derby connections. Trainer Mark Casse has the most Kentucky Derby starters (10) in race history without an in-the-money finish. As for jockey Jose Ortiz, he’s 0-for-9 in his Kentucky Derby career and his performances have gotten worse over time. His first five rides produced an average finish of 6.8, but his last four mounts have had an average finish of 13.5. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. No Japanese horse has won the Kentucky Derby, but Forever Young finished third in a photo finish last year. Luxor Cafe, a Kentucky-bred son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, is Japan’s best hope this year.
Luxor Cafe has spent his entire six-race career in Japan, winning four straight races to clinch his spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. His last start was his most impressive, as he stalked the pace before using a late burst to earn a five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29. Yu notes that Luxor Cafe’s connections “have stated that he had plenty left in the tank” following that impressive win, and his style fits this race. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse previews
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
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