The 2025 Kentucky Derby is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday and there’s rain in the 2025 Kentucky Derby weather forecast throughout the day. As the line blurs between wet-fast and sloppy, how you construct your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets could be altered and understanding which 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders are good in the slop could give you an advantage. Justify won the 2018 Kentucky Derby on a sloppy track on his way to winning the Triple Crown and his son American Promise is in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field.
The latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds list American Promise as a 30-1 longshot despite the fact that he stormed to a 7 3/4-length win in his last race in the Virginia Derby, was sired by a Triple Crown winner, and is trained by four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. Who wins this year’s Run for the Roses and which 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots should you consider to spice up your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? SportsLine’s horse racing experts are breaking down the Kentucky Derby 2025 from all angles.
Handicapper Jody Demling has hit 11 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 16 years. He’s also nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and predicted the winner of the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge. You can see Demling’s full projected leaderboard at SportsLine.
Here are three Kentucky Derby longshots to target, according to Demling:
Burnham Square (12-1)
Owner Janis Whitham and trainer Ian Wilkes have both had one previous Kentucky Derby experience, teaming up with McCracken in 2017 to finish eighth. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. was also a part of that team but he’s added some experience that should be useful to the mix this time around. He is making his sixth Derby appearance and is coming off a win with Mystik Dan in 2024.
Hernandez took Mystik Dan from the No. 3 post to the inside and patiently pressed the pace before finally making a move to squeeze through on the rail and win by a nose in a three-way photo finish. He is based out of Churchill Downs and was given the Burnham Square mount because of his knowledge of Kentucky racetracks. This son of Liam’s Map out of Scat Daddy mare Linda is a proven closer coming off a win at the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and he led all horses in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings. You can bet Burnham Square at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Luxor Cafe, the son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has taken a unique path to make it in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. He was born and bred in Kentucky before being sold to Koichi Nishikawa, who then took him to Japan Luxor Cafe has won four of his six career races, including the Fukuryu Stakes in March before shipping back to America to prepare for the Derby.
Luxor Cafe’s stock is rising because he previously beat Admire Daytona head-to-head in Japan and Admire Daytona then went on to win the UAE Derby. Despite only coming to America in late April, Demling says Luxor Cafe “still looks good and could be a surprise.” You can bet on Luxor Cafe at 1/ST BET and get up to $250 in bonus funds:
Publisher (20-1)
Publisher has emerged as a legitimate contender following his strong second-place finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He is a late developing 3-year-old who was sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and his pedigree suggests strong potential for a race of this distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in North American horse racing and has previously won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
This is an opportunity for Asmussen to record his first Kentucky Derby victory, as Publisher finished fourth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes before his career-best performance in Arkansas. He has made steady improvement as his races have increased in distance, indicating that he should be able to handle the Derby’s distance. Publisher is a longshot who should be in the mix down the stretch on Saturday night. You can bet Publisher now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
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Here are several places to bet on the Kentucky Derby.
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