Celtics-Knicks preview: X-factors, predictions and more

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The inevitable is here.

For months, the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks have appeared on a second-round crash course. The forecasts were accurate.

The Celtics will host Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday. Our experts are here to preview it.

Three of The Athletic’s NBA writers — Jay King, who covers the Celtics; James L. Edwards III, who covers the Knicks; and Fred Katz, who has joined the Knicks beat for the playoffs — got together to answer five burning questions about the series.

Here are their answers:

How would you best summarize the Knicks’ and Celtics’ first-round performances?

King: The Celtics needed to adjust their style to overcome the gritty Orlando Magic. Though no opponent found consistent answers for Boston’s 3-point attack during the regular season, Orlando broke it apart. After generating at least 33 3-point attempts in each game of the regular season, the Celtics fell shy of that low bar in each of the final three games against Orlando. Boston found other ways to win with Jayson Tatum handing in a big series and the defense holding the Magic to 103.8 points per 100 possessions, which would have easily ranked last in the league during the regular season.

The Celtics emerged from that series a little banged up, but could benefit from nearly a week off between the end of the first round and Monday night’s second-round opener.

Edwards: I had questions about how the Knicks would handle a team as physical and relentless as the Detroit Pistons, and I thought they carried themselves well. New York didn’t play the prettiest basketball against Detroit (and neither did the Pistons), but it did rise to the occasion in terms of the intangibles. The Pistons brought a fight to the Knicks and, to their credit, they were ready to rumble. New York was tough both mentally and physically throughout the first-round series.

OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges were really good in defending Cade Cunningham, who is as tough a cover as there was in the NBA this season. Detroit doesn’t exactly have the league’s most dangerous offense, but the Knicks did what they had to do to keep the Pistons from truly gaining confidence on that end of the floor.

Furthermore, Josh Hart did Josh Hart things throughout the entire series, making winning play after winning play. As for Jalen Brunson, what else is there to say about his greatness at this point?

Katz: Uneasy.

At times, the Knicks looked gorgeous, reminding viewers why they owned a top-five offense during the regular season. They played more physically than they had all year, meeting the Pistons’ confrontational energy. And at other times, the Knicks looked like they had just learned how to play basketball.

The offense would go stagnant or they wouldn’t run their first action of a possession until far later than required. They would get away from Karl-Anthony Towns, or Towns would get away from himself.

Talent won out against the Pistons — albeit, just barely. The Knicks had more of it; they had more experience, and they downed Detroit. But if a series with the Celtics, who swept New York during four regular-season matchups, is as bumpy, it won’t yield the same result.

What has to happen for the team you cover to win the series?

King: The Celtics can win in a lot of ways, but, after needing to adopt a different style in the first round, they will likely be hoping to play more like themselves again. They will want to recover their 3-point volume, rapid ball movement and overall offensive flow. They will want to free up their supporting cast, which went missing for several games against Orlando.

The Celtics had few issues against the Knicks during the regular season, going 4-0 while making 21 3-pointers per game. Tatum averaged 33.5 points across those four games on 53.5-percent shooting. If he continues to dominate New York like that, generating great looks for himself and others, the series could be a quick one. Based on how the regular season matchups went, the Celtics will likely try to use him to pick on Towns. But especially after the big games Tatum had, the Knicks should be ready for that type of focus from Boston. Expect New York head coach Tom Thibodeau to have a few new wrinkles prepared.

Edwards: The Knicks have to find a way to play fast consistently. They were at their best in the series against the Pistons when defending and rebounding at a high level.

Obviously, upping the pace starts with getting stops far more frequently than they did against the Celtics during the regular season. With that, they also need to be strong on the defensive glass. Boston ranked 10th during the regular season with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game. New York ranked 25th during the regular season with 31.8 rebounds per game — and it averaged even fewer per game (30.8) once Mitchell Robinson made his season debut on Feb. 28. The Celtics offense is too potent to allow Boston to get multiple opportunities to score.

The Knicks need to try to get out in the open court as often as possible, and then in the half court, create rotations as much as possible. Boston has too many switchable defenders who can guard straight up without help. It’ll be impossible for the Knicks to create an advantage against a set-up Celtics defense without some urgency, cutting and ball movement.

Katz: All must go right for the Knicks just for them to stand a chance.

They need A-plus performances from Brunson and Towns, which includes figuring out how to stop the Celtics from slicing New York’s center up in pick-and-rolls. They need more from Miles “Deuce” McBride than they received in the Pistons series. They need lockdown defense from Anunoby, Bridges and Hart. But let’s concentrate on one smaller game within the game that the Knicks have to win: The possession battle.

The Celtics shoot more 3-pointers than any other team in history. The Knicks, meanwhile, were 28th in 3-point attempt rate during the regular season. There will be a wide gap, even if the Knicks close it some, from beyond the arc during this series, which means New York can’t turn it over. It means Towns, Robinson and Hart must gobble up rebounds on both sides of the court.

A team that loses the 3-point game as well as the possession battle won’t survive.

What should the team you cover be most worried about?

King: I’m going to sound like Joe Mazzulla, who has repeatedly stressed that even in the playoffs, most games come down to the simple details. In this series, the Celtics need to focus on limiting free-throw attempts and offensive rebounds.

Though the Knicks don’t get to the free-throw line much, Brunson has a gift for doing it. Boston’s defense needs to be solid against him. He will produce anyway. (Have you seen his playoff track record? Sheesh.) But the Celtics should do whatever they can to keep him off the line.

New York also has two relentless offensive rebounders in Hart and Robinson, who can change games with their pursuit of misses. The Knicks thrive on energy plays. Boston needs to cut those down. The Celtics will have plenty of other areas to worry about, but discipline in those two categories would go a long way.

Edwards: Boston’s 3-point shooting.

No team in the NBA shot more 3s than the Celtics during the regular season, and they ranked 10th in terms of efficiency. Boston has great shooters across the board and is tremendous at playing and winning the math game. The Knicks, on the other hand, are not. This group lives in the midrange and was bottom five in 3-point attempts per game.

If New York can’t change the way it plays offensively or can’t limit the amount of 3s the Celtics take — it’ll need to limit dribble-drive penetration to do this — this could be a series that resembles how the regular-season meetings went between these two teams.

Katz: Kristaps Porziņģis.

Forget about the first-round struggles against the Magic. Porziņģis unlocks Boston’s most dangerous mode.

Towns, assuming he starts on Porziņģis, will need to stray far beyond the 3-point arc to close out on deep 3s. Porziņģis, meanwhile, will likely begin the series guarding Hart, the same way the Pistons placed centers on Hart last round. Tatum and Jrue Holiday, as they did during the regular season, should take turns on Towns. The strategy will allow a 7-foot-3 tower to roam into the paint, taking away driving lanes, layups and dunks.

How do the Knicks approach the Porziņģis problem?

Do they put a wing on him, as some teams will try, moving Towns onto Holiday? It would take a change in mindset from Thibodeau to try it. The Knicks rarely crossmatch with their centers. Does the defensive-minded Mitchell Robinson become increasingly important, either because he plays alongside Towns or instead of him?

Jrue Holiday’s health will be a concern for the Celtics after he missed part of the first-round series with Orlando. (Elsa / Getty Images)

Who are the X-factors on the Celtics and Knicks?

King: For the Celtics, Holiday. He is considered day-to-day after missing the last three games of the first round with a strained hamstring. If he plays his usual role against New York as the primary Brunson defender, Holiday’s health will face a significant test. Brunson might be the worst player to need to guard immediately after returning from a hamstring injury. He starts and stops constantly. He dances on and off the ball. He comes off screen after screen and his defenders had better be in tip-top shape.

The Celtics will need to adjust if Holiday’s hamstring can’t handle all of that herky-jerky motion. They would have other options, but could be further limited by Jaylen Brown’s banged-up knee, a lingering issue since mid-March. Boston would probably want Brown to avoid such strenuous minutes, if possible. Regardless, Holiday’s health is critical in this matchup. Brunson has called Holiday one of the toughest defenders he faces.

Edwards: I feel like Towns is way too good to be labeled as an “X-factor”, but I think it’s very clearly him as it pertains to this specific series.

Towns has to consistently punish smaller players when they are guarding him. A few NBA head and assistant coaches I talked to said that part of their thinking in putting smaller players on Towns is that they don’t believe he can commit to playing a bruising style throughout an entire game or series, and that he’ll eventually revert to his finesse ways at some point.

Towns can’t settle for as many fallaway, midrange jumpers or running floaters as he did against Detroit, even if he is talented enough to hit those shots here and there. The Celtics’ defenders are too good and their offense is too potent.

New York also needs to do a good job of making sure Towns is involved in the bulk of its offensive actions. After all, he’s one of the best offensive players on the court.

On the other end of the floor, Towns has to execute his coverages at an elite level against Boston. He can’t be too slow to close-out on Porzingis on the perimeter. If he’s blitzing, he’s got to make sure to commit aggressively and with active, high hands, like he did at times against the Pistons. If he’s in a drop, he does still have to contest shots and rebound well.

Katz: McBride.

The Knicks’ sixth man has not looked like himself since returning from a knee injury late in the regular season. By the end of the Pistons series, his confidence had dissipated. At one point, he passed up an easy layup in transition, flinging the ball back to the perimeter instead of trying a seamless 2-pointer.

This was not the normal McBride, the one whose trademark is his lack of hesitation.

He scored only 23 points during the six games versus the Pistons and shot worse than 30 percent. After a regular season when he was the team’s best point-of-attack defender against guards, he strayed too often from shooters lining the arc. He can’t make the same mistakes when he’s on Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard.

For all the “The Knicks can’t win this series if…” hypotheticals, “The Knicks can’t win this series if McBride struggles to this degree” may top them all. New York could use bench help. When McBride catches heaters, he provides it — on both sides of the court. He’s come through in the playoffs, as recently as last season. Now, the Knicks could use the usual version of him back.

Who wins this series and why?

King: The Celtics will win in five games. This is a good matchup for them. They will attack Towns on the perimeter, where he’s vulnerable, and put constant pressure on Brunson throughout the series.

Edwards: I agree with Jay.

Boston isn’t perfect but the Celtics are damn close, and as Fred and I always talk about, the winner of a playoff series is often the team with the fewest flaws.

All of the Celtics’ best players defend at a good-to-high level. There is no weak link to pick on. That’s not the case for the Knicks. New York’s best closing lineup will always have two defenders with limitations. Furthermore, the Celtics will always have at least three players on the court who can break down a defense off the dribble and create advantages. That is a glaring weakness of New York’s roster this season. At this stage, it’s hard to generate a sustainable half-court offense over 48 minutes without multiple dribble-drive playmakers, and the Knicks are lacking in that department.

Boston is a bad matchup for 99 percent of the NBA, but specifically the Knicks.

Katz: I’ll go with the Celtics in five, as well.

Regular-season results do not always point to what’s to come in the playoffs. But the Knicks’ four games against the Celtics — especially the first three, when Boston slaughtered them — made a wide gap between the two teams apparent.

(Photo of Jayson Tatum and Karl-Anthony Towns: Elsa / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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