Why Julio Rodriguez and Dylan Crews are among those ripe for a rebound in fantasy baseball

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Last week, we focused on the players to worry about after the first month. Today, maybe I’ll put a pep in your step by looking at the struggling players you shouldn’t worry about. I’m the life of your fantasy party: Dr. Feelgood.

Again, I make no promises. I’m not saying these players will stop being unlucky or help you win a championship — they don’t deserve to be this bad.

Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.

Hitters

Brandon Lowe (2B, TB) should be hitting .266 with a .474 slugging percentage, not his actual .203/.305. For his career, his actual stats are .004 from his expected ones. His barrel rate is still very good at 10.8%. His hard-hit rate is well above league average. The barrels are great, even when you adjust for his high K%.

Dylan Crews (OF, WAS) should be hitting .259 with a .468 SLG — in other words, like a rookie considered by many the best prospect in baseball. His barrel rate is 14.8% (average is 7%), and even on a per-PA basis (meaning K% adjusted), he’s 9.6% — twice the MLB average. Of course, he has nine steals, so Crews has a path to be a major asset going forward.

Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) has been disappointing, even in his expected stats, but he should be .246/.495 in AVG/SLG (terrible for him). But it’s not his actual .210/.340. His expected stats are a normal one-month variance, and his actual stats are an inexplicable disaster. I’m not buying that a bad lineup impacts his stats to this degree. Baseball is not a team game. It’s hitter vs. pitcher. Who is behind or ahead of him matters for his counting stats, but not his averages.

Salvador Perez (C, KC) should be hitting an absurd .331 with a .604 SLG, 96th-percentile or better. He’s actually hitting .238 with a .373 SLG. Just trade for Perez right now. His barrel rate of 15.3% is almost as high as his strikeout rate (19.1%).

Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CHW) hasn’t been good. His expected stats are just .233/.413. But the barrel rate is a career-high 13.5%. The Ks are out of control at over 30%, but even adjusted for PAs, his 7.1% barrel rate is well above average (4.8%). Generally, almost all barrels are hits. His actual stats are .188/.342. Given his 15 steals, he would be a championship-level asset if he reverts to his expected stats.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) is having his second-best season in expected stats. His hard-hit rate is an absurd 59.4% (98th percentile), and his strikeout rate is a near career-best 17.5% (73rd percentile). The zero steals are disappointing, but in fairness, he’s just an average runner now. The power is very real.

Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA) is having his best expected stats season. We don’t play expected stats fantasy, but should we? His K rate is a career low. His walk rate is a career high. He should be hitting .252 with a .475 slugging. That’s fine, given he should threaten 30/30.

Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) is also having his best expected stats hitting season (.283/.481 vs. actual .216/.360). The Orioles are just snake-bitten as a whole. But I’d be targeting Rutschman, whom I faded this winter, given that his walks and Ks are almost even.

Mike Trout (OF, LAA) has an expected ISO over .300. His expected average is only .248, but that’s much better than his actual (.179). His K% is pushing 30%, which is evidence of collapse. He’s not the same player he once was, I will stipulate, but he’s still dangerous. He could hit .250 with 40 homers in a full season, pro-rated for injury. He’s on the IL now with what is described as a minor knee injury.

Pitchers

Chris Sale (ATL) has earned a 3.31 expected ERA (4.84 actual ERA), which is what we should have hoped for given his age. His K% is still in the 86th percentile, and his control is in the 81st. His WHIP should be about 1.10 (actual 1.41). Even his velocity is only down about half a mile per hour, which is in line with what should have been expected at age 36.

Bailey Ober (MIN) has an xERA of 3.51 vs. 3.22 last year and 3.63 in 2023. The K%, at under 20%, is a legit worry. He’s lost a little over one mile per hour in velocity but averaged 91.4 mph (only 0.3 mph less than in 2024) in his last start. So I have reasonable hope his K% will positively regress.

Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) is the unluckiest pitcher in baseball with an xERA (3.41) that is 2.50 less than his actual ERA. His K% is well above his career average, and his walk rate is below his career average. He’s only 15% rostered on Yahoo, which I get, but he hasn’t been this unlucky. So pick him up in all formats.

(Photo of Julio Rodriguez: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)

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