Robbie Ray attempts to keep his perfect record intact when he starts Monday for the San Francisco Giants in the opener of their three-game series against the visiting Kansas City Royals. Ray (6-0, 3.04 ERA) is unbeaten in his last 11 turns dating back to last season and is one of two pitchers in the major leagues looking to reach the seven-win mark this year on Monday, with Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks also taking the mound versus the Los Angeles Dodgers.
San Francisco, which improved to 4-2 on its nine-game homestand by sweeping the Athletics over the weekend, is running into a hot pitcher in Kansas City’s Kris Bubic (4-2, 1.66). The 27-year-old left-hander has allowed just one run over 18 1/3 innings in his last three outings and has tossed at least five scoreless frames three times in his last five trips to the mound.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for both Ray (Over -120, Under -109) and Bubic (Over +112, Under -150) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Bubic Over 5.5 as a 4-star play on its five-star scale and Ray Over 5.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Monday’s 12-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus money. Here they are:
Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 strikeouts (-145) vs. Mets (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Dobbins is allowed a season-high five runs over five innings against the Detroit Tigers in his last outing but still managed to record four strikeouts. It marked the fourth time the 25-year-old right-handed rookie went Over this number in his first five major-league starts. This will be the third consecutive road start for Dobbins, who registered 10 strikeouts across 11 frames in the first two. The Mets are in the bottom-third of the majors in strikeouts but fanned 11 times in two of their last three contests.
Colton Gordon Over 4.5 strikeouts (+135) vs. Rays (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Gordon will be making just his second start in the majors after recording three strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings against the Royals in his debut last Wednesday. The 26-year-old left-hander now faces a Tampa Bay team that is in the middle of the pack this year with 393 strikeouts. However, the Rays have whiffed at least nine times in four of their last five contests and fanned 10 times in Sunday’s road loss to the Miami Marlins.
Logan Allen Over 3.5 strikeouts (-116) vs. Twins (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
Allen matched his season high in strikeouts in his last start, registering six over six innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. It was the fifth time the 26-year-old southpaw went Over this number in eight turns this season. Allen was superb in his lone outing versus the Twins last year, fanning seven batters across six scoreless frames.
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