Ranking the Ballon d’Or 2025 favourites: Has McTominay overtaken Mbappe?

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We are just over 24 hours away from the 2025 Champions League final, which will draw the curtains on another entertaining European club football season.

Winning the Champions League often puts players in pole position to win the Ballon d’Or, and Ousmane Dembele, whose Paris Saint-Germain play Inter Milan in Munich, is a prime candidate, while Inter boast a couple of worthy candidates too.

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What follows is The Athletic’s ranking of the favourites to win the award, based on our analysis and opinion. Our first ranking, published on April 12, had Raphinha at the top, with Dembele, Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe behind.

There have been some big movers since then, and additions to the list…


1) Raphinha (Barcelona and Brazil)

Previous ranking: 1

What’s he done since the last ranking? Raphinha has added six goals and three assists in 11 matches since April 12. Despite not looking his best, he has contributed at crucial junctures. He had a hand in three of Barcelona’s six goals in their Champions League semi-final heartbreak against Inter and scored twice (including a stoppage-time winner from the spot) against Celta Vigo in La Liga.

To cap it off, he tormented Madrid again in the season’s fourth and final Clasico last Sunday. Madrid went 2-0 up inside 14 minutes at Montjuic but after Eric Garcia and Yamal brought Barcelona level, Raphinha scored twice in the final 11 minutes of the first half.


Raphinha after winning La Liga (Manaure Quintero/AFP/Getty Images)

The first was a sweeping left-footed finish across goal — his trademark this season — while the second was a tap-in created by his pressing and a quick one-two with Ferran Torres. Raphinha missed at least two other chances to score a hat-trick, but Barcelona eventually won 4-3 to place one hand on the title.

Past week: Raphinha played 64 minutes of Barcelona’s final league game against Athletic Club, creating one Opta-defined ‘big chance’ in a relatively quiet outing.

Up next: Raphinha will join up with Brazil for Carlo Ancelotti’s first two matches in charge against Ecuador on June 5 and Paraguay on June 10 as part of World Cup qualifying.


2) Ousmane Dembele (PSG and France)

Previous ranking: 2

What’s he done since the last ranking? Dembele featured in just three of PSG’s final five Ligue 1 matches after the team wrapped up the title on April 5. He was crowned the league’s player of the year, with a return of 21 goals and eight assists in 29 league games, and his impact has been felt in the Champions League.

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The France international assisted Nuno Mendes’ tie-winning goal in PSG’s quarter-final second-leg win. Dembele scored three minutes into their semi-final match against Arsenal before assisting another tie-clinching goal — for Achraf Hakimi, this time — to send PSG into the final and lift his record to 33 goals and 11 assists for the season.

This week: Dembele played all 90 minutes of PSG’s 3-0 win against Reims in the Coupe de France final. He did not score or assist but made his mark by hitting the woodwork and forcing two saves from Reims goalkeeper Yehvann Diouf.

Up next: The Champions League final against Inter is next on the menu, with victory securing PSG a treble and possibly moving Dembele into the Ballon d’Or front-runner position. He is also in France’s Nations League squad and will head to the Club World Cup.


Dembele, centre, after winning the French Cup (Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images)

3) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona and Spain)

Previous ranking: 3

What’s he done since the last ranking? The Yamal legend has hit new peaks in the past six weeks. He was Barcelona’s best player by a distance against Inter. The 17-year-old assisted Pedri and Torres in the Copa del Rey final, as well as Raphinha’s equaliser in the pivotal 4-3 league win over Celta.

Yamal then drove Barcelona’s first-half dismantling of Madrid, scoring with a trademark curler beyond Thibaut Courtois to make it 2-2. He tormented Fran Garcia throughout the match and could have ended with at least two more assists.

A league-clinching goal and assist followed at Espanyol, and he also scored against Villarreal. Yamal ended his club campaign with 18 goals and 25 assists, a frankly unbelievable record for a player in just his second top-flight season.

Past week: Yamal played all 90 minutes against Athletic Club. He didn’t score but completed five dribbles and put in another impressive display.

Up next: Yamal will join up with Spain for their Nations League semi-final against France, hoping to make the final on June 8.


4) Pedri (Barcelona and Spain)

Previous ranking: 9

What’s he done since the last ranking? The same things he did in all the months before that. Pedri has played in all of Barcelona’s matches in the past six weeks, performing admirably in both legs against Inter.

The highlight of this period, though, was a delightful finish against Madrid in the Copa del Rey final. He assisted Raphinha in the league Clasico too before putting in another composed display in the 2-0 win over Espanyol that sealed the league title.

This week: Pedri ran the show once more against Athletic, his 59th club appearance of the season, as Barcelona won 3-0. He completed 115 of his 123 pass attempts, both game-high figures.

Up next: Pedri will join Yamal for Spain’s fixture against France and either the final or third-place play-off (both scheduled for June 8).


5) Alessandro Bastoni (Inter Milan and Italy)

Previous ranking: 7

What’s he done since the last ranking? Standing out defensively in a tie that involved 13 goals is difficult, yet Bastoni’s reputation has improved after the Champions League semi-finals as he was Inter’s best hope at containing Yamal.

His Serie A minutes have reduced in recent weeks. He played only 87 minutes across games against Cagliari and Bologna, and his absence (due to an accumulation of yellow cards) was sorely felt in the 1-0 defeat to Roma. In between, he was one of the rare positives in Inter’s 3-0 humiliation at the hands of Milan in the Coppa Italia semi-finals too.

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Bastoni then started Inter’s league visit to Torino and put in another composed display that included an assist for Nicola Zalewski’s opener in a 2-0 win. He played all 90 minutes in the 2-2 draw with Lazio that put Inter’s Serie A hopes in jeopardy.

Past week: Bastoni was benched for the 2-0 win over Como in Inter’s final league game, with Napoli beating Cagliari by the same score to clinch the title.

Up next: The Champions League final, then he will join Italy for their World Cup qualifiers against Norway on June 6 and Moldova on June 9. The Club World Cup, where Inter are grouped with River Plate, Monterrey and Urawa Reds, will follow.


6) Mohamed Salah (Liverpool and Egypt)

Previous ranking: 6

What’s he done since the last ranking? Salah’s season slowed down considerably towards the end, with just one goal between April 13 and May 19. That did not matter, though, as Liverpool cruised to the Premier League title, while his exploits up to March meant his numbers remained remarkable.

Past week: Salah needed just one goal or assist to set the record for most goal contributions in a 38-game Premier League season entering Liverpool’s final league game against Crystal Palace. He got that elusive 47th goal contribution in the 84th minute with a well-struck volley that was deflected into the net.


Salah with the Premier League Golden Boot and Premier League Playmaker award (Michael Regan/Getty Images/Premier League)

A total of 29 goals and 18 assists meant he picked up both the league’s Golden Boot and Playmaker awards along with the title. Not a bad day at the office.

Up next: With Liverpool not competing in the Club World Cup, Salah will have the bulk of the summer off after featuring in 52 of his club’s 56 games this season.


7) Joao Neves (PSG and Portugal)

Previous ranking: New entry.

What’s he done since the last ranking? Neves has been one of Europe’s best midfielders this season. His PSG career began with four assists in his first two Ligue 1 games after arriving from Benfica in a deal worth around €70million (£59m; $80m) with add-ons.

Neves has been crucial to PSG’s pressing and fluid interchanges with Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz, dragging opponents out of position across the pitch. He is combative and explained to The Athletic the feeling he gets when dispossessing opponents. With the ball, Neves is prolific at both carrying and passing, making him the complete package.

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The 20-year-old has started 15 of PSG’s 16 Champions League games and was a standout performer in their wins against Manchester City in the league phase and Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal in the knockouts.

Past week: Even with the league title wrapped up, Enrique continued to play Neves, who started four of their last five Ligue 1 games. He featured for 71 minutes in their Coupe de France final win over Reims, winning six duels and making five tackles.

Up next: Neves is expected to start the Champions League final. He, along with Vitinha, will then join Portugal’s squad for their Nations League semi-final against Germany on June 4 and one of the final or third-place play-off on June 8. He could be involved for PSG in the Club World Cup immediately after too.


8) Scott McTominay (Napoli and Scotland)

Previous ranking: New entry.

What’s he done since the last ranking? McTominay led Napoli’s Serie A charge with aplomb after joining from Manchester United last summer on a deal worth €30million, scoring 12 league goals in 34 games. That included important strikes against Inter and Atalanta earlier in the season, and against Monza, Torino and Cagliari in the final six matches.


McTominay, centre, with his Serie A winner’s medal (Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images)

Despite not boasting the squad strength of Inter, Napoli edged them to the title, largely due to Antonio Conte getting the best out of McTominay.

Past week: Needing a win to guarantee the title on the final day, McTominay scored with an acrobatic volley to put Napoli ahead in the 42nd minute against Cagliari. His former United team-mate Romelu Lukaku netted early in the second half to get the party started.

McTominay was also presented with Serie A’s Most Valuable Player award after full time.

Up next: McTominay will link up with Scotland for their international friendlies against Iceland on June 6 and Liechtenstein on June 9.


9) Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid and France)

Previous ranking: 5

What’s he done since the last ranking? Mbappe was anonymous in Madrid’s 2-1 home defeat to Arsenal in the second leg of the Champions League quarter-finals but burst into life after that.

He was a menace off the bench against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final, scoring the first free-kick goal of his career. Mbappe tormented them in the league Clasico too with a hat-trick while also netting twice against Celta Vigo and once each against Mallorca and Sevilla.

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All of those put him well clear of Robert Lewandowski, who missed multiple games with injury, in the race for the Pichichi, awarded to La Liga’s top scorer.

Past week: Mbappe scored both goals in Madrid’s 2-0 win over Real Sociedad on the final day of the season to finish on 31 league goals and 42 across all competitions. The 26-year-old shone through in an injury-stricken, inconsistent team.

Up next: Mbappe is part of France’s squad for their Nations League semi-final against Spain on June 5 and will travel with Madrid to the Club World Cup after finishing his international duties.


10) Harry Kane (Bayern Munich and England)

Previous ranking: 4

What’s he done since the last ranking? Kane scored the opener against Inter in their Champions League quarter-final second leg to draw Bayern level. He was one of the better players despite hardly being involved (only 15 passes attempted) but could not stop Bayern from being knocked out.

He responded by scoring in three of his final four Bundesliga appearances to win the first title of his career. Kane ended the club season with 38 goals and 13 assists in 46 matches across competitions but has slightly gone under the radar.

Up next: Kane has been called up for England’s World Cup qualifier against Andorra on June 7 and a friendly against Senegal on June 10. He is expected to feature at the Club World Cup with Bayern.

(Top photo: Scott McTominay after winning Serie A with Napoli; by Elianton/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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