49ers’ Brock Purdy needs to work on this one specific weakness to live up to mega contract

Brock Purdy signed a five-year extension worth $265 million two weeks ago to make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. The big contract comes with higher expectations, especially since the 49ers lost eight starters this offseason as they prepared to make room for extensions to Purdy (and Fred Warner and George Kittle).

Purdy has the highest passer rating (104.9) and yards per attempt (8.9) in NFL history (minimum 1,000 attempts) but there are fair questions about whether he will live up to the contract as he and the 49ers struggled in 2024 while dealing with a laundry list of injuries (and a Super Bowl hangover).

It probably won’t get any easier for Purdy in 2025 as Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are coming off injury and Deebo Samuel was traded to the Commanders. 

One area where he will definitely have to improve is in late, close situations. One of my favorite questions in football is who do you want with the ball in his hands with the game (or season) on the line? Purdy’s play, especially when his all-world supporting cast is shorthanded, has not inspired a lot of confidence in that area.

He has nine touchdown passes and 15 interceptions in his career when tied or trailing in the second half and overtime, compared with 61 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions in all other situations. That amounts to the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio and highest interception rate among 28 quarterbacks with 280+ attempts in those late, close situations since he entered the league in 2022. Dead last.

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Brock Purdy career when tied/trailing in 2nd half/OT (including playoffs)

That is not going to cut it for a quarterback making over $50 million per year on a team some would still consider Super Bowl contenders. He is second in the NFL in yards per dropback in those spots and just below average in overall efficiency (as measured by EPA per play) but the amount of mistakes he’s made is just bad. 

Since he’s paid like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, let’s compare his numbers to the consensus top-five quarterbacks in the league. You’ll notice one of these in the chart below is not like the others. 

Career tied/trailing in 2nd half/OT (including playoffs)

It’s fair to be concerned that the 2024 version of Purdy could continue into his new contract. Purdy was on the field for 15 drives last year when the 49ers had a chance to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime. San Francisco only successfully converted on three of those 15 drives. Purdy’s career conversion rate on game-tying or go-ahead drive chances isn’t that far behind the best quarterbacks in the league, but it was definitely a problem last year.

Career conv pct in potential game-tying/go-ahead drives in 4th quarter/OT
(including playoffs)

It’s one of the reasons the 49ers lost a lot of close games, too. They were the first team since the 2008 Lions (who went 0-16) to lose four divisional games with a fourth-quarter lead. 

Purdy finished the season with a whimper, too. He made a crippling turnover in the clutch in each of his final three games of the season. He was actually the first player in 18 years with an interception in three straight games on potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. The last to do it was Ben Roethlisberger in 2006.

Here’s a look at those plays:

Purdy totally forced this throw when the 49ers were only down by three vs. the Rams in Week 15.

He may have gotten crushed while throwing this pick in Week 16 vs. the Dolphins, but on first down, it’s a throw he never should have made.

And he either didn’t see Kerby Joseph here in Week 17, or didn’t anticipate the All-Pro safety making such a good play on the ball. 

A lot of Purdy’s 15 career interceptions when tied or trailing in the second half or overtime in his career look a lot like this. He either doesn’t see a defender over the middle of the field or rushes a throw under pressure resulting in a game-changing turnover. Eight of his 15 picks in those spots came when pressured and 11 of the 15 occurred over the middle of the field.

He’s shown flashes in these situations to his credit, engineering game-winning drives in the 2023 playoffs vs. the Packers and Lions on the way to the Super Bowl, where he was one play away from beating the Chiefs. Purdy was a big reason the 49ers overcame a seven-point deficit in the fourth quarter vs. the Packers and a 17-point deficit in the NFC title game vs. Detroit. San Francisco had never done either in a game under Kyle Shanahan prior to that.

Given his career numbers though, those performances are looking more like outliers. He’s going to have to be much better in 2025 if the 49ers are going to rebound from a disappointing season, especially as the margin between success and failure will be even slimmer as some consider San Francisco’s Super Bowl window closed. 

On the flip side, if anything can open it back up it’s Purdy’s improvement in this area.