Giants takeaways: Tough pitching decisions and a glimmer of offensive hope after Marlins series

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After their 4-2 win on Sunday, the Giants are averaging four runs per game in June. They averaged 3.8 runs per game in May. That month-over-month increase of .2 runs is known as a “trend” in statistics, which means the Giants are likely to set a major-league record with 7.8 runs per game sometime in the middle of the 2027 season. It’ll be so much fun, just you wait.

Until then, the story of the 2025 Giants is coming into focus. The good news is that their pitching staff can prevent runs. The bad news is their lineup can prevent runs, too. The Giants finished with a losing record in May despite a team ERA comfortably under 3.00, which is something that happens in baseball about once every decade or so. They’ve scored four runs or fewer in their past 14 games, which is the team’s longest streak since 1980. The franchise record is 19 (1902, 1965), and the Giants are returning to Oracle Park to face the Padres and Braves, two clubs that prevent runs better than the average team.

(The major-league record of 26 games was just tied by the Pirates a couple of weeks ago. Could be worse.)

The Giants didn’t have a disastrous road trip, winning two of their three series, but taking just two out of three against rebuilding teams won’t be enough to catch the Dodgers, and getting swept by contending teams will leave them outside of the wild-card chase. There’s work to do, and most of it is on the offensive side.

Some thoughts and notes on the road trip and the Giants’ series win over the Marlins on the final leg:

The obvious strength of the 2025 Giants

Hayden Birdsong lowered his ERA to 2.37 after allowing one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in Miami. (Sam Navarro / Getty Images)

It’s easy, justifiable and recommended to complain about the lack of run production. Don’t forget to praise the pitching, though. It’s good for the soul. And the stomach.

The Giants haven’t scored more than four runs in 14 games, but they also didn’t allow more than four runs in a game on the road trip. They played nine games, scoring 14 runs and allowing 16. That’s how a team can lose a road trip with a 1.89 team ERA, but it’s also how they almost finished with a winning record despite averaging 1.5 runs per game. This feels like the kind of team that could trade for Carlos Beltrán at the deadline, metaphorically speaking. Or, heck, maybe we’re talking literally. He’s only 48.

That low team ERA doesn’t even tell the entire story. The rotation pitched well on the road trip, with a 2.08 ERA, but the starters went six innings or longer in only four of those games. That’s understandable, considering that both Hayden Birdsong and Kyle Harrison weren’t fully stretched out, but it shifted some of the burden onto the bullpen. They responded by allowing just three runs in 28 2/3 innings (0.94 ERA).

Two-thirds of the season remains, and the quicksand and trap doors will eventually get someone, if only because that’s how pitching works. And maybe take a breath before reading too much into the strong showing from the staff against the Marlins. The best way to describe Miami’s offense is that it has Otto Lopez hitting in the middle of the order right now. That’s not to say he’s a bad player, but if he were the type of hitter who belonged in the middle of an order, Giants fans wouldn’t be able to shut up about him. He was with the 2024 team in spring training, and Giants fans love to grumble about the players who got away. Someone is reading this right now who hasn’t really processed any of the words after “Carlos Beltrán” because they’re still sour about losing Zack Wheeler. Nobody is livid about Lopez, though, which is a sign that he might not be a run producer.

Still, it’s not hyperbolic to claim the Giants’ staff is pitching at a championship level right now, just like they did in 2009, 2010 and 2011. You can take comfort in that comparison, or you can let it slowly drive you mad. I suggest the former when they win and the latter when they lose.

The two timelines, Giants-style

If you’re a Warriors fan, you’ve heard a lot about the “two timelines.” They’re trying to win while Steph Curry and Draymond Green are still playing at a high level, but they’ve also made attempts to build a younger, sustainable foundation for the future. The results have been … mixed.

In a way, the Giants are trying something similar. They’re getting quality innings out of Robbie Ray and plenty of them (he’s in the top 20 in innings pitched). They’re without Justin Verlander at the moment, but you know their best-case scenario would be an effective Verlander pitching in the postseason. At the same time, they have three young starters throwing well, and one of them probably won’t be in the rotation next week. One of them will likely be buried, Jonathan Kuminga-style, through little fault of their own. In another organization, their rotation spot would be a given all season, if not the next several seasons. In this one, someone is going to make room, even if they don’t deserve a demotion.

The analogy breaks down when you zoom in on the differences between the two sports. A young basketball player can show flashes, but they’ll typically need to understand the nuances of the game to succeed at a championship level. Young pitchers, though, can excel long before they understand the nuances of pitching. Their raw talent will take them a lot further, which means pitching staffs are rarely about two timelines. They’re more about one timeline that ends in September or October, and Harrison, Birdsong and Landen Roupp all might be three out of the five best starting pitchers in the Giants’ entire organization right now. One of them still might get hosed.

In a perfect world, one of the other 29 teams would be having a reverse-Giants season, both allowing and scoring bushels of runs, and they’d match up well on a trade. In this world, some teams almost fit that description, but the best examples might be the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. A pitcher-for-hitter trade makes sense if, say, the Yankees or Cubs are giving up a starting position player. It doesn’t make sense if you’re forced to imagine one of those young pitchers in one of those uniforms for the next few seasons.

The first rule of a pitching conundrum like this is that everything will probably work itself out. Someone will make room, whether because of injury or ineffectiveness. It’s how all three of them are in the rotation at the same time right now. Until then, the Giants will have tough decisions to make, yet again.

Luis Matos and the home run of hope

And now for your moment of zen:

The Giants’ offensive struggles don’t have an easy, realistic solution. There isn’t a button they can press or a lever they can pull to improve their run production. They need their struggling hitters to do better, and that’s a list that includes roughly everyone who isn’t Heliot Ramos at the moment.

There are a couple of unlikely, magic solutions, though. One of them is Luis Matos going on the kind of tear that makes it hard to keep him out of the lineup, even against right-handers. It’s unlikely that he’ll become a key contributor this season, mostly because of how limited the at-bats will be for any right-handed outfielder on the Giants, other than Ramos. The at-bats would have to come at the expense of one of the current left-handed outfielders, which isn’t likely to happen.

Still, think about one of the better Krukow-isms going. When the Giants are trailing by a substantial margin and a hitter bloops in a single to start the inning, Mike Krukow often says, half-jokingly, “And it alllllll started with a broken-bat single.” The gag works because that’s how plenty of run-scoring bonanzas start. A hitter reaches base instead of making an out, and everything flows from there. It’s unrealistic because, well, look at the scoreboard. The typical blowout doesn’t end with a dramatic comeback.

Matos’ home run is the broken-bat single in this analogy, and the entire Giants’ lineup is the lopsided deficit in need of a quick fix. Maybe Matos will fix everything, ha ha. No, seriously, maybe he will. Just kidding. Unless I’m not. Baseball is filled with surprises. (But it’s rarely that surprising.) (Unless it is.) (Please, someone, start hitting.)

If not Matos, then maybe it’s Wade Meckler, who’s finally back from injury and starting in Triple A again. Or, more realistically, maybe it’s Jerar Encarnacion who will fix everything, which is funny to think about, considering it wasn’t that long ago he wasn’t even a lock to make the team out of spring training. He was playing in Oaxaca at this time last year, and now he’s the best hope for a Giants team that’s desperate for runs?

Yeah, sure. Everyone who responds to the Craigslist ad gets an interview for the crucial position of “lineup savior.” But a crucial three-run homer from a 23-year-old outfielder allows you to dream a little bit more than usual. The Giants’ lineup needs help. It would sure be convenient if they got it from one of the young hitters they already have.

(Top photo of Luis Matos hitting a three-run homer: Sam Navarro / Getty Images)

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