For the first time since 2006, the NBA Finals will feature two cities vying for their first championships with the Oklahoma City Thunder facing the Indiana Pacers. OKC’s only title in franchise history came when the team was still in Seattle, while Indiana’s only championships in team history came when it was in the ABA. Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals begins on Thursday, with Oklahoma City holding home-court advantage. Both making NBA bets on a game-by-game basis and making NBA picks for the series will be popular wagering strategies at various betting sites.
The latest Pacers vs. Thunder odds to win the series from list Oklahoma City as the -750 series favorite (risk $750 to win $100), with Indiana at +500. The over/under for total games in the series is 5.5, with the Over shaded to +120 and the Under at -148. OKC is a 9-point favorite in Game 1 of the series, with the over/under at 231. You could bet these NBA odds with a DraftKings promo code for new users that can get $300 in bonus bets. If you’re looking for how to bet the 2025 NBA Finals, be sure to see the projections from SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh.
Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. It also hit both of its top conference finals picks, Thunder in 5 (over +300) and Pacers to win the series (+126). Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers series picks:
- Thunder to win the series (-750)
- Thunder to win the series in five games (+210)
Thunder to win the series (-750 at DraftKings)
The model has Oklahoma City as the overwhelming series favorite, even more so than the implied odds of 87.5%. It has OKC prevailing in 93.5% of simulations, creating a value of plus-6%. The Thunder swept the season series as OKC is one of just two teams that Indiana failed to defeat in the regular season. Oklahoma City won the road matchup by six points, despite both Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso being sidelined, and then routed the Pacers by 21 points in the home contest with Holmgren still inactive. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP resume was boosted by this pair of games as he averaged 39 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds.
Meanwhile, OKC’s top-rated defense cut off the head of the snake with Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton, whose 11 points per game average versus the Thunder was his lowest versus any team in 2024-25. That defense will be the biggest differentiator as both teams have highly efficient offenses, and while OKC limits opponents to the lowest field goal percentage, the Pacers are a bottom-10 unit in that regard. All of Indiana’s strengths from offensive efficiency to depth are also strengths that OKC has — arguably to an even greatest extent — but Indiana lags far behind the Thunder on defense, which is known to win championships.
Thunder to win the series in 5 games (+210 at DraftKings)
Despite Haliburton’s struggles versus OKC, he’s proven himself to be one who elevates his game in the postseason as he’s averaging more points, rebounds and assists in the 2025 NBA playoffs than in the regular season. That gives Indiana a shot to win a game and avoid a sweep, and it’s worth noting that the Pacers won three straight matchups versus the Thunder, prior to their 2024-25 meetings. Also, NBA history leans more towards the series going five rather than ending in four. There have been just nine sweeps in NBA Finals history, while there’s been over twice as many (20) 4-1 series outcomes. Oh projects OKC winning in five as the highest probability of any series outcome, hitting in 37.6% of simulations.
“Indiana’s only chance is Tyrese Haliburton averaging no more than 1.5 turnovers, more than 10 assists, while shooting 40%+ from 3pt range and significantly outplaying the MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander,” Oh said. “We could imagine that happening once or even maybe twice this series, but not four times.” You can bet Thunder in 5 at +220 odds both at DraftKings or at Caesars, with the latter coming via a Caesars sportsbook promo code.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top series picks for Thunder vs. Pacers. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can see Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 picks from SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora, who is 109-80-1 on his last 190 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best play for Game 1, all from the expert who’s up almost 20 units.
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