The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Michigan International Speedway on Sunday for the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400, where three drivers have had a stranglehold at recent NASCAR at Michigan races. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano have won 10 of the last 14 races at the track. While Harvick is retired and Larson tops the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds at +525, Logano looms as one of the 2025 NASCAR at Michigan longshots at +1600. That’s despite leading for a Michigan-record 163 laps in his last victory at the track in 2019, and no active driver has more total laps led (590) at Michigan International Speedway. The NASCAR at Michigan 2025 green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET with hopes that the race also finishes on Sunday after rain forced Monday finishes each of the last two years.
Before entering any 2025 Michigan NASCAR picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Michigan predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 21 winners since 2021, including three winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Best NASCAR at Michigan longshots (odds subject to change):
- Joey Logano (+1600)
- Chase Elliott (+2000)
- Carson Hocevar (+2000)
Joey Logano (+1600)
After securing his first win of the season last month at Texas, Logano has since rattled off three straight top 20s, including a fourth-place a week ago that is his second-best finish of 2025. He’s made 20 career starts at Michigan since joining Penske, and 15 of them, or 75%, resulted in top 10s. Both his total laps led (590) and his laps led percentage (11%) are tops amongst active drivers, as he has three Michigan victories to his name (2013, 2016, 2019). With his track success, as well as top 10s in three of his last four starts in 2025, Logano is a steal at +1600 and can be wagered on with the help of a DraftKings promo code.
Chase Elliott (+2000)
The 2020 Cup Series champion has displayed unparalleled consistency as he has 17 straight top 20s dating back to last season. He’s arguably the best driver yet to win at Michigan International Speedway as no active driver has more runners-up at the track than his three. By always being in contention for the checkered flag, it’s of little surprise that Elliott’s average finish (10.5) at Michigan is the best amongst active drivers and the third best all-time (min. 5 starts). Outside of a blown tire in 2023, Elliott has top 20s in all 13 of his other Michigan starts, top-15s in a dozen of those races, and top-10s in 10 of those starts.
Carson Hocevar (+2000)
Hocevar enters the FireKeepers Casino 400 on a high after a runner-up last week at Nashville. It ties his best finish on the Cup Series as he’ll make his second start at Michigan. Hocevar impressed as a rookie, placing 10th last year and leading for multiple laps late in the race. His Spire Motorsports teammate, Zane Smith, had a seventh-place finish as Spire has notched five top 20s over its last six driver starts at the track. Hocevar was born and raised in the state of Michigan, so this race means a little more to him than others. He’s great value at +2000, considering there are 10 other drivers with equal or shorter NASCAR odds, and the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code can help maximize this bet before his odds shorten.
More top NASCAR at Michigan expert picks, longshots revealed
You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 NASCAR Michigan leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 21 winners, including Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray, Larson’s win at Miami and Christopher Bell’s All-Star victory.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Michigan picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto’s picks, including an epic longshot of over 75-1, all from an expert who has nailed 17 NASCAR winners.
2025 NASCAR Michigan odds, drivers, lineup
(odds subject to change)
Kyle Larson +525
Denny Hamlin +650
Ryan Blaney +650
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +850
Christopher Bell +1000
Ross Chastain +1400
Joey Logano +1600
Chase Elliott +2000
Chris Buescher +2000
Carson Hocevar +2000
Chase Briscoe +2200
Brad Keselowski +2500
Bubba Wallace +2500
Alex Bowman +2500
Josh Berry +3500
Kyle Busch +3500
Ty Gibbs +5000
Ryan Preece +6000
Austin Cindric +6000
Erik Jones +6000
Daniel Suarez +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Michael McDowell +12500
Zane Smith +12500
Austin Dillon +15000
Noah Gragson +15000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Riley Herbst +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +100000
Cody Ware +100000
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