The best (and worst) NBA Draft picks at every top-10 slot over the last decade

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The NBA draft is a day away! The 2025 edition is of particular interest with a major star at the top like Cooper Flagg. History, though, actually shows that there are stars available virtually every year, even if they aren’t always revealed yet on draft night.

But for every Nikola Jokic picked at 41, Jalen Brunson at 33, Giannis Antetokounmpo at 15 or Tyrese Haliburton at 12, there are numerous others who fail to live up to expectations on draft night — even at the very top. The teams that pick right fast-track their way back to a bright future, whereas the teams that make the wrong choices are relegated to more of what got them to the lottery in the first place.

With all of that in mind, we took a look back at the last 10 years and broke down the best and worst selections we’ve seen at each of the first 10 picks.

No. 1 overall

Best pick: Paolo Banchero to the Magic (2022)

Wemby was a no-brainer. Everyone knew he was the pick. So too was Cade. Even Anthony Edwards was relatively uncontested, especially in retrospect. But Paolo? Most people thought he was going third to Houston. Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren were the favorites to go No. 1. But Orlando had everyone fooled, and three years later it looks like a great decision. You could still make a case for Chet, but Paolo looks like a true alpha. He’s only 22 years old and put up nearly 26 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists this year, albeit in an injury-plagued season.

Worst pick: Markelle Fultz to the 76ers (2017)

It’s not just that they could have had Jayson Tatum (or Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markkanen or Bam Adebayo). It’s that they were so sure Fultz was the better prospect they traded the No. 3 pick, plus a future first, to the Celtics for the first pick. In other words, the Sixers had the right to draft Tatum. They not only didn’t do it — they gave the Celtics an additional first-round pick to take the future Hall of Famer off their hands.

No. 2 overall

Best pick: Chet Holmgren to the Thunder (2022)

The second pick has seen a lot of mistakes in the last decade. In 2023, though, when Banchero jumped up to No. 1, some wondered if the Magic would pivot and take Jabari Smith Jr. They didn’t, and three years later they’re just a handful of games away from an NBA championship because of it. Holmgren had durability concerns because of how thin his frame was, but his fit in the modern game — thanks to his skill, shot-blocking and vertical spacing — made him an ideal fit in OKC’s rapid rebuild.

Worst pick: Lonzo Ball to the Lakers (2017)

There have been worse players picked at this spot in the last 10 years (we’re looking at you, James Wiseman). What made this pick so bad was that Tatum was actually hoping to be picked No. 1 or go to the Lakers because he grew up a Kobe fan. Magic Johnson was in charge then and was so transparent that he was going with Ball, it gave the Celtics the intel necessary to make the deal and be confident they were still getting their man.

No. 3 overall

Best pick: Jayson Tatum to the Celtics (2017)

The Sixers and Lakers blew the 2017 draft, and the Celtics aced it. As a result, the Celtics have won an NBA championship since, and the other two organizations made major changes to their front offices. By the way, a close second here was the Celtics taking Jaylen Brown with the third overall pick in 2016. The 2024 championship was on the backs of what they did in the 2016 and 2017 drafts.

Worst pick: Jahlil Okafor to the 76ers (2015)

Are you noticing a pattern? Trusting the process actually might have worked — if the Sixers drafted better. In 2015, they took a throwback-style low-post big man, even while there was plenty of evidence the game was shifting away from such players. Ironically, the very next player taken, Kristaps Porzingis, was the antithesis and much more in line with the modern adaptation of the frontcourt.

No. 4 overall

Best pick: Amen Thompson to the Rockets (2023)

It’s still a bit early to say definitively if this one will turn out as good as it looks right now, but Houston has to be thrilled with what they saw from Thompson this year. 2023 was a draft where the top three were virtually certain (albeit in different orders) heading into draft night. Thompson was viewed as an elite athlete, but a non-shooter. The hope was that he could blossom into a jumbo initiator. Instead, he became one of the best and most versatile defenders in the league at just 22-years-old.

Worst pick: Josh Jackson to the Suns (2017)

Truth be told, this looked like a great pick some eight years ago. Jackson was a big wing, elite athlete, good passer and big-time defender. While the shooting and self-creation were question marks, it was non-basketball-related issues that drove him out of the league and ended up making this a devastating loss for the Suns.

No. 5 overall

Best pick: Luka Doncic to the Mavericks, via trade (2018)

To be clear, Trae Young was the fifth pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. That in and of itself might be the best use of the fifth pick in the last decade. The Mavs even did one better, flipping Young and a protected future first (which turned out to be Cameron Reddish) to the Hawks for that year’s No. 3 pick Luka Doncic, who some now view as a generational talent. And yes, Doncic donned a Hawks cap during his on-stage celebration with Adam Silver. Of course, the trade to acquire Doncic was as brilliant as the one to get rid of him was puzzling, to say the least.

Worst pick: Isaac Okoro to the Cavaliers (2020)

The Cavs have drafted well over the years, getting Darius Garland with the fifth pick in 2019 and Evan Mobley with the third pick in 2021. Unfortunately, 2020 wasn’t quite as good. Okoro got every opportunity to grow into their wing of the future and was even the full-time starter for his first three years. Most recently, in his fifth season, the 24-year-old posted career lows in minutes, scoring, rebounding and assists. And the glaring hole on the Cavs roster is on the wing.

No. 6 overall

Best pick: Buddy Hield to the Pelicans (2016)

This wasn’t an easy pick because, quite frankly, the No. 6 pick has been an absolute trap over the last decade. There hasn’t been an All-Star to come from the sixth pick since Damian Lillard in 2012. Relative to typical returns, the Pelicans got good value in Hield, who’s been a double-figure scorer for nine consecutive seasons and a career 40% 3-point shooter. But even this pick comes with a caveat, since he only spent one season with New Orleans and Jamal Murray was taken with the very next pick.

Worst pick: Jarrett Culver to the Suns (2019)

While there has been virtually no star power to come from the sixth pick in the last decade, the typical return is still a solid NBA player. Culver is below that threshold. He last played in the NBA in 2022–23, when he suited up for 10 games for the Hawks. In total, he saw action in 144 games in four seasons. This past season, he was in the G League for Osceola Magic.

No. 7 overall

Best pick: Jamal Murray to the Nuggets (2016)

Ironically, the seventh pick has delivered consistently higher rates of return than the sixth. 2016 is a good example. Buddy Hield provided relative value, but Jamal Murray has been even better. While it’s a bit surprising that he has never been an All-Star, he was an imperative part of the 2023 NBA championship run and has now averaged better than 20 points per game for four consecutive seasons, along with 6-plus assists in each of the last three.

Worst pick: Killian Hayes to the Pistons (2020)

Hayes was a polarizing prospect back in 2020, with some evaluators loving him and others having major concerns. Unfortunately, Detroit was on the wrong side of that projection. They took Hayes at No. 7 while Tyrese Haliburton was taken at 12 and Tyrese Maxey at 21. The decision ended up being viewed as one of the biggest mistakes of Troy Weaver’s tenure.

No. 8 overall

Best pick: Franz Wagner to the Magic (2020)

With Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga coming off the board at 6 and 7 in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Magic took Wagner at 8. He started 79 games the next season, averaged 15 points per game and has made subsequent jumps in each passing season. This year, although he only played 60 games, his productivity jumped up to 24 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. He doesn’t turn 24 until August and is now viewed as one of Orlando’s key long-term building blocks.

Worst pick: Frank Ntilikina to the Knicks (2017)

Ntilikina played 78 games as a rookie for New York, but never again more than 58. He was never a full-time starter and most recently saw five games for Charlotte in the 2023–24 season. What made this especially devastating for the Knicks is that if they needed a guard, Donovan Mitchell — who grew up a Knicks fan — was still on the board for another five picks.

No. 9 overall

Best pick: Deni Avdija to the Wizards (2020)

In the 2000s, players like Amar’e Stoudemire, DeMar DeRozan and Gordon Hayward were all scooped up with the ninth pick. More recently, the best returns have come from players like Jakob Poeltl, who has been a starting center and double-double threat for the last five years, or Jeremy Sochan, who started his first two years in San Antonio. Conversely, Avdija looked like a bust initially in Washington, but has made a sizable jump in the last two years. Unfortunately for the Wizards, it’s the Trail Blazers who are now reaping those rewards.

Jrue Holiday trade grades: Celtics address issues with Anfernee Simons, while more questions for Trail Blazers

Sam Quinn

Worst pick: Frank Kaminsky to the Hornets (2015)

Before the Celtics drafted Brown or Tatum, they were focused on another wing: Justise Winslow. He was available when the Hornets picked ninth in 2015, and the Celtics offered four first-rounders for the pick. The Hornets declined and drafted Kaminsky. He’s been an NBA journeyman of sorts, but hasn’t played more than 47 games since the 2018–19 season and is now in the G League.

No. 10 overall

Best pick: Mikal Bridges to the Suns, via trade (2018)

The former Villanova star was picked by his hometown Sixers in 2018 but shockingly traded to the Suns for Zhaire Smith and a future first-round pick. This was just another puzzling draft night deal for the Sixers — and a terrific move for the Suns. Bridges blossomed into one of the best two-way wings in the league during his five years in Phoenix, before the trade to Brooklyn allowed him to showcase even more of his offensive repertoire, culminating with last summer’s blockbuster deal to the Knicks.

Worst pick: Thon Maker to the Bucks (2016)

Maker was once the No. 1 overall prospect in high school basketball, but his plateau started long before the 2016 draft. Either the Milwaukee front office didn’t know enough about his history or they misjudged their ability to alter his trajectory. Either way, it was a predictable whiff — one that was all the more painful in retrospect because Domantas Sabonis went with the very next pick.

This news was originally published on this post .

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