The Minnesota Vikings marched into a Week 18 matchup against the Lions last season with a chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and finish with 15 wins for the second time in franchise history. Instead, the offense disappeared as Sam Darnold went 18 for 41 and Minnesota scored only nine points to get relegated to the Wild Card Round, where they again scored nine points as Darnold got sacked nine times by the Rams.
The franchise decided Darnold was not the long-term answer for the team, letting him depart in free agency. That means the reins at quarterback will be handed over to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of last season after suffering a torn meniscus in the preseason. He benefits from potentially the best 1-2 punch at receiver in the league outside of Cincinnati.
Much like his fellow first-round pick in Chicago, McCarthy will be working in front of an entirely new interior offensive line after the Vikings signed Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indianapolis and drafted Donovan Jackson in the first round. With an excellent pair of tackles in place, McCarthy has everything he needs to succeed at his disposal, but the uncertainty around his level of play has a wide spread in Vikings futures odds available in the betting market, with the team ranging from +2000 to +3000 to win the Super Bowl over the summer.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Vikings’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Vikings in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Minnesota Vikings season review
- Regular season: 14-3 (Second, NFC North)
- Playoffs: Lost to Rams in Wild Card Round 27-9
- Most wins (14) by non-division winner in NFL history
- Sam Darnold: Most QB wins (14) and fourth-most pass TDs (35) in first season with team all-time
- J.J. McCarthy: First QB drafted in first round to miss entire rookie season due to injury
2025 Minnesota Vikings offseason review
| QB | Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Nick Mullens | Sam Howell | |
| RB | Cam Akers | Jordan Mason | |
| WR | Trent Sherfield, Brandon Powell | Rondale Moore, Tim Jones | Tai Felton (3) |
| TE | Johnny Mundt | Gavin Bartholomew (6) | |
| OL | Garrett Bradbury, Dalton Risner, Ed Ingram, Cam Robinson, David Quessenberry, Dan Feeney | Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Justin Skule | Donovan Jackson (1) |
| DL | Jerry Tillery, Jonathan Bullard | Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave | Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (5) |
| EDGE | Patrick Jones, Jihad Ward | ||
| LB | Kamu Grugier-Hill | Eric Wilson | Kobe King (6) |
| CB | Shaquill Griffin, Stephon Gilmore, Fabian Moreau | Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah, Tavierre Thomas, Kahlef Hailassie, Reddy Steward | |
| S | Camryn Bynum | ||
| STAFF |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +10000 | 6.5 | Over | 14 | L, Wild-card round |
| 2023 | +4000 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC North |
| 2022 | +3600 | 9.5 | Over | 13 | L, Wild-card round |
| 2021 | +4000 | 9 | Under | 8 | 2nd, NFC North |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC North |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Minnesota Vikings futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (-130) | 8.5 (-170) | 9.5 (+105) | 9.5 (+125) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (+110) | 8.5 (+140) | 9.5 (-125) | 9.5 (+110) |
| Win Super Bowl | +2500 | +2200 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Win NFC | +1200 | +1100 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Win NFC North | +300 | +290 | +350 | +270 |
| Make playoffs | -115 | -110 | -110 | -105 |
| Miss playoffs | -105 | -110 | -110 | -115 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | +1100 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 J.J. McCarthy props
| MVP | +8000 | +5000 | +6000 | +7500 |
| Comeback POY | +900 | +650 | +1000 | +850 |
| Most pass yards | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3750.5 | 3600.5 | 3650.5 | 3650.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Vikings
Minnesota was one win away from winning not only the division, but also getting a first-round bye with Sam Darnold at the helm. The Vikings opted not to bring him back in the offseason, which means Kevin O’Connell has tremendous faith in McCarthy as a quarterback. The first-year starter will have plenty of weapons to work with, including arguably the league’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson. If McCarthy can match even 80% of Darnold’s productions, the Vikings should go over their win total.
Brian Flores’ defense was one of the best units at forcing turnovers and using aggressive tactics to its advantage. The Vikings brought in some talented players in Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to further improve their defensive line, which in turn will help the secondary get its bearings a bit. There’s been a full revamp at the cornerback spot and that should help the Vikings limit some of their lapses in the passing game.
Reasons to fade the Vikings
McCarthy is coming off a meniscus injury which cost him his entire rookie season. Though he was unlikely to take over for Darnold, he lost some potentially valuable reps. Darnold was also playing for a new contract, which could factor into his improved play. McCarthy will be asked not to crash the Ferrari but that’s also potentially going to limit his ability to grow outside of being a game manager. That decline could have a trickle down effect to the rest of the offense.
Minnesota’s change in the secondary might not work, and a defense that led the league in interceptions might take a step back in terms of forcing turnovers. Opponents will also have a full offseason to adjust to Flores’ tactics and could use the Vikings’ blitz-happy nature against them. The schedule gets tough after the bye week, with eight of the 12 games coming against playoff teams from a year ago.
How to bet the Vikings in 2025
- Under 9.5 wins -125 (DraftKings)
- Miss playoffs -105 (BetMGM)
- Justin Jefferson Over 1200.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars)
The make/miss playoffs market is a great way to take a position on Minnesota if you have a strong feeling on what the Vikings will get out of McCarthy in 2025, as most markets make it around a coin flip. Last year, the Vikings’ win total was 6.5 with McCarthy as the projected starter, and I don’t think Darnold’s career season should move their win total up by three heading into this year. The reworked offensive line will take a little time to come together, and by the time they do, the Vikings will be in the brutal part of their schedule. I’m also not counting on another top-10 scoring season from the Vikings, and when you pair that with what could be an average offense, this doesn’t feel like a playoff team to me.
One player I’m not concerned about regardless of McCarthy’s performance is Justin Jefferson, who has averaged more receiving yards per game than anyone in NFL history despite the Vikings’ quarterback situation over the last few years. Jefferson’s 1,533 yards last year saw his average yards per game actually drop more than 15 yards from each of the previous two seasons, and he may only need to play 12 games to top 1,200 yards. As long as he doesn’t miss more than three games this season, he should get Over his total.
This news was originally published on this post .
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