What Roman Anthony’s extension could mean for top prospects like Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark

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Roman Anthony’s newly signed eight-year, $130 million extension with the Boston Red Sox is a reasonable step forward in the market for players within their first year of service time — a market not nearly as team-friendly as it used to be. Whether it’s a small step forward or a giant leap depends, curiously, on the balloting for this year’s American League Rookie of the Year.

Combined with Corbin Carroll’s 2023 extension with the Diamondbacks, Anthony’s deal helps establish a foundation for top-rated prospects who succeed quickly in their first big-league seasons. In the next season or two, that’s a group that could include Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark and Minnesota’s Walker Jenkins.

A decade ago, players with better and longer big-league track records than Anthony’s were signing contracts like Christian Yelich’s seven-year, $49.6 million deal with the Marlins. That deal valued Yelich’s free-agent years at less than $15 million per season.

Ronald Acuña Jr. pushed the market into nine figures with his eight-year, $100 million deal with Atlanta in 2019; even that valued Acuña’s three free-agent years well below market rate at around $20 million per season. Julio Rodríguez’s 2022 deal with the Mariners set a new standard when it guaranteed him more than $200 million during his rookie season, though with club options that could put a ceiling on his long-term earnings if he fulfilled his potential.

Carroll’s eight-year, $111 million extension with the Diamondbacks, signed ahead of the 2023 season, valued two of his free-agent years at closer to $30 million apiece — a riskier bet, but one that Carroll has so far justified. Jackson Merrill’s nine-year, $135 million extension with the Padres last spring was notably light, though Merrill could make up for it by hitting reasonably set and relatively lucrative plate-appearance incentives.

Anthony’s ultimate valuation will pivot on where he finishes in this year’s AL Rookie of the Year voting. A player who finishes in the top two of that balloting earns a full year of service time. So, if Anthony were to finish outside the top two, he wouldn’t have qualified for free agency until after the 2031 season, and thus this extension only buys out two free-agent years (with the club option to buy out a third).

Anthony should also finish this season with 112 days of service time, which, while more than Carroll had at the time of his extension, was still likely to be shy of qualifying for Super Two status down the line in arbitration. (Since 2009, the Super Two cutoff averages two years and 128 days of service time, and it’s never been less than two years and 115 days.)

Why does this matter? Because an extension is built off what you project a player to make in arbitration, and a Super Two player gets another bite at the apple to make more. The record total earnings in arbitration for a Super Two position player are $79.6 million (Juan Soto); for a non-Super Two player, it’s $57.5 million (Mookie Betts).

Which means that even if Boston expected Anthony to match Betts’ total in arbitration, it’s valuing two free-agent years at about $70 million total (or three at about $100 million, if the club option is exercised).

However, if Anthony finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, that extra year of service would have meant free agency after the 2030 season, and thus, this extension would buy out three free-agent years. While the deal contains salary escalators to reward such a finish, they’re very modest: $1 million each in 2031, 2032 and 2033, and $2 million for 2034 in the event the option is exercised.

In that case, the extension values Anthony’s three free-agent years at just under $75 million total, or four at $105 million if the option is exercised. That’s a bit less than how Carroll was viewed.

While the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz is a clear frontrunner to win AL Rookie of the Year, Anthony has a real shot to finish second. Right now, he has the second-best betting odds behind only Kurtz for the award, and he’s fourth in wins above replacement among AL rookies despite not debuting until the second week of June.

In short, there’s a bit of risk taken on by both sides by doing this deal ahead of that vote. If Anthony finishes outside the top two, the Red Sox would have benefited by waiting until after. If he finishes first or second, then Anthony would have benefited by waiting. Instead, both sides took the player’s ultimate value out of the hands of BBWAA voters, and that ballot is largely irrelevant for Anthony’s future earnings.

“I think it clearly didn’t become this prohibitive element or factor, but it was something that both sides needed to get comfortable with in terms of how we were going to address it,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said about the Rookie of the Year vote. “It’s real. We can’t ignore it. But at the same time, the overriding overarching themes here, where Roman wants to be a Red Sox deep into the future, and we want Roman to be a Red Sox deep into the future.”

The deals for Carroll and Anthony combine to serve as foundations for consensus top prospects in the sport who swiftly show success at the major-league level. Kurtz and Jacob Wilson with the A’s fit that bill. (As a power-hitting first baseman, Kurtz has a different profile than Carroll and Anthony, but he’s also in line to maximize his arbitration earnings since those reward the home runs and RBIs he accumulates.)

Looking further down the line, McGonigle and Clark, a pair of 20-year-olds in the Tigers’ system who sit first and second in Keith Law’s latest prospects rankings, could follow this blueprint with successful debuts. Same with the Twins’ Jenkins, who came in at No. 11. Being a highly rated prospect matters here; it’s why Atlanta’s Harris — a top-50 prospect but not a top-five prospect like Carroll and Anthony — didn’t get as big a deal despite displaying a similar level of immediate production.

Back in Boston, Anthony is one of several Red Sox to sign long-term contract extensions over the past few years, under regimes led by both Chaim Bloom and Craig Breslow. With Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Ceddanne Rafaela all locked up, infielder Marcelo Mayer would make sense to be next.

(Photo of Roman Anthony: Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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