The Nationals might be at the outset of another attempt at a rebuild after firing their manager and general manager earlier this year, but they’ve identified one foundational piece this season in outfielder James Wood. The 22-year-old is slashing .257/.357/.487 with 25 home runs and 77 RBI, and he’s lashed five extra-base hits (four doubles and one homer) over his last three games. On Monday, the Nationals will take on the Royals and struggling lefty Bailey Falter in Kansas City. Falter gave up seven earned runs in his last start and is -110 to allow 6+ hits on Monday.
Wood is one of the rare left-handed sluggers who is largely unbothered by left-handed pitching, and that matchup, along with his +550 price in the MLB home run odds, makes him one of our top MLB HR picks for Monday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 58.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting two of its three MLB HR picks on Saturday and Riley Greene (+500) on Sunday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and see their game picks for Phillies vs. Reds.
Best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 11:
MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/11
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
James Wood, Nationals (+550, BetMGM)
Wood broke out of a long HR slump on Saturday and is coming off back-to-back two-hit games—though he did strike out three times in each game. He’s also recorded a double in three straight games. Interestingly, Wood has hit better against left-handed pitchers (.271) than righties (.250) this season, and he’s shown slightly better production on the road than at home. Bailey Falter has given up nine home runs in just six starts since the beginning of July. We set Wood’s line at +412 to homer. It’s BetMGM offering the best price here, and you can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
Riley Greene, Tigers (+400, FanDuel)
We hit on a Greene homer yesterday and are going right back to him today. Greene has hit 25 of his 27 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers and has 15 HRs in 53 road games. The White Sox are using an opener before turning to Tyler Alexander, a lefty who typically doesn’t go deep into games—so Greene should still get multiple ABs against right-handed pitching. We set Greene’s line closer to +330 when factoring in Alexander as the bulk pitcher, but you can find this price at FanDuel and also use the latest FanDuel promo code to get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins:
Ryan McMahon, Yankees (+470, FanDuel)
McMahon started hot with the Yankees but has cooled off recently. He’s yet to homer in his 15 games with New York, so we’re leaning into the “he’s due” narrative. McMahon has hit 14 of his 16 HRs against right-handed pitchers and faces rookie RHP Zebby Matthews tonight. He’s 1-for-2 with a home run against Matthews already. Opponents are hitting .289 against Matthews when he pitches on the road, and McMahon is due to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right. We set McMahon’s line at +390 to homer, making this a tremendous value with the listed price available at FanDuel:
Where to bet MLB props on Monday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Monday:
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on an 89-81-1 roll (+1503) on MLB picks.
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