Anatomy of a QB failure, plus the rookie with an eerily similar profile to Jefferson

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Inside: Thoughts on the Colts quarterback situation and the rookie receiver who might be this year’s Justin Jefferson. We’ll start today with Mike Sando on a sticky QB situation.

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Sando Says: Richardson’s time is up

When Anthony Richardson turned to his left during the Colts’ preseason opener, away from unblocked Ravens pass rusher David Ojabo, he committed an error so basic that coaches around the NFL knew what was coming next.

Anthony Richardson has exited the Colts’ preseason game after taking a sack from David Ojabo.

Daniel Jones is now in at QB for Indianapolis.

🎥 @nflnetwork | H/T @StevePalazzolo_ pic.twitter.com/5cYwfwqXq3

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 7, 2025

“The Anthony Richardson experiment is over,” one predicted, as quoted in my recent 2025 Quarterback Tiers survey.

The Colts made it official Tuesday when they named Daniel Jones the starter over Richardson, who could go down as one of the biggest first-round QB busts in the history of first-round QB busts.

The reckoning for that decision is yet to come.

Much will be said about the Colts making a short-sighted move because third-year coach Shane Steichen (17-17 record) and ninth-year GM Chris Ballard (62-69-1) are under pressure to win right now. But there is a bigger reality at work here: Steichen would lose credibility in the locker room if he declared Richardson the starter in the absence of any evidence that Richardson is ready to handle any aspect of the job.

Richardson’s scholarship is up. It’s a big blow to a 2023 first-round QB class also featuring C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young.

Back to you, Jacob.

Quarterback Malpractice

I grew up watching my dad run a leadership course called “Play to Win.” It taught me the difference between playing to win and playing not to lose; the former is focused on maximizing positives, the latter on minimizing negatives.

After failing to develop Richardson, Steichen hopes Jones can stabilize the floor (and save his job). It’s playing not to lose 101.

Steichen began his tenure in Indianapolis by playing to win. The former offensive coordinator, hired after immediate success with Justin Herbert (2020) and Jalen Hurts (2021-2022), bet on a player whose talent was so rare “it might not come along for another 50 years,” according to one scout.

Had this worked, Richardson — who is built like Derrick Henry at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, ran a faster 40 than Henry and might have one of the strongest arms in NFL history — becomes the Colts’ franchise passer, and the search since Andrew Luck’s retirement mercifully ends.

Steichen bet on his ability to develop Richardson. He failed. Taking a 20-year-old quarterback with just 13 starts in college is risky, especially in the first round. For perspective, Herbert started 42 college games before working with Steichen, while Hurts had played in part of 56 college games, plus had a full season of NFL experience.

Richardson’s completion percentage in his final year of college (53.8) and injury history (at least four injuries in the two years prior to the 2023 draft) foreshadowed what was to come. But Steichen had faith.

“I think you can help accuracy, I definitely do, with mechanics. And I think part of it is the scheme you put them in. Don’t make them think too much, and simplify the offense and build it around the quarterback,” said Steichen a month prior to drafting Richardson at No. 4.

If any quarterback needed the Packers’ approach of sitting rookie passers for three years, it was Richardson. The Colts brought in Gardner Minshew, but they still rushed Richardson into the starting role. The results were predictable.

Injuries and inaccuracy plagued the now 23-year-old who has just 15 of a possible 34 games. His career completion percentage, 50.6, is a league-worst 16 percentage points below what an average NFL passer would complete in similar situations, per Next Gen Stats.

Richardson’s work ethic, leadership and toughness have also been challenged, with GM Chris Ballard telling The Athletic “[Richardson] was drowning,” and that he wishes the Colts had let Richardson sit and learn.

The failure of Steichen and Richardson appears sealed after Jones’ appointment. If you can’t beat out Jones, who was introduced to the playbook a few months ago, should you be a starting NFL quarterback? Of course not.

Richardson’s accuracy needed work, and Steichen made it clear that consistency, not explosive plays or upside, was his top priority in the quarterback competition. “Take care of the football, make good decisions with the football and really move your offense down the field,” Steichen said in April. “The guy who’s the most consistent doing that will win the job.”

Only 58 percent of Richardson’s throws last season were on target, while Jones’ 81 percent led the NFL in his breakout 2022 season. (The league average is 75 percent). Steichen cited that 2022 season repeatedly when announcing the change, and explained that Jones offered more complete, consistent quarterback play, while Richardson “needs to continue to develop in those areas.”

But if everything goes according to plan, Richardson — drafted two years ago, yet still younger than Shedeur Sanders — won’t get a chance to develop this year. “[Jones is] the starting quarterback for the season,” Steichen said Tuesday. “I don’t want to have a short leash on that.”

While choosing Jones is justified, The Athletic’s James Boyd explained that there seems to be no clear plan for Richardson’s development in Indianapolis, despite their front office preaching patience. “I just think eventually Anthony’s going to be who we think he can be,” Ballard said. “I still believe that. Whether that’s this year or next, I don’t know when it’s going to happen.”

Exercising Richardson’s fifth-year option next offseason, worth about $20 million guaranteed, would offer another example of playing not to lose. But unless Steichen and Ballard do some winning, someone else will make that decision.

Emeka Egbuka: This year’s star rookie WR

At least one rookie receiver dominates each season.

Malik Nabers (1,204 yards), Ladd McConkey (1,149) and Brian Thomas (1,282) all finished among the top 10 in receiving yards last season. Puka Nacua did the same in 2023, as did Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 and Justin Jefferson in 2020.

The only year without a rookie receiver among the top 10? 2022, when Garrett Wilson (15th) and Chris Olave (18th) came close.

Buccaneers rookie Emeka Egbuka is my pick this year. This is a lofty comparison, but Egbuka reminds me of Justin Jefferson for several reasons. Hear me out:

1. Just as Jefferson’s final season at LSU was overshadowed by a generational talent in Ja’Marr Chase, Egbuka’s 2024 was clouded by Jeremiah Smith, a similar talent and Dane Brugler’s top receiver in college football.

2. That pushed Egbuka to the slot, where he took 81.1 percent of his snaps for Chip Kelly’s offense. Jefferson was similarly penciled as a slot-heavy receiver after 98.6 percent of his snaps came there.

3. Jefferson and Egbuka averaged an identical 2.6 yards per route run in their final college season, though Jefferson had higher total numbers in a pass-happy offense led by Joe Burrow, while Ohio State often leaned on their run game.

The similarities continue with their measurables, surprising given that we associate Jefferson with twitchiness and Egbuka was labeled a steady, reliable presence without flash (think: Marvin Jones):

• Jefferson: 6-foot-1, 202 pounds with a 4.43 40-yard dash, 37.5-inch vertical and 33-inch arms.
• Egbuka: 6-foot-1, 202 pounds with a 4.48 40-yard dash, 38-inch vertical and 31-inch arms.

Jefferson’s deceptive and unique talent had pundits comparing him to Marvin Jones before the Vikings drafted him at No. 22. The similarly built and productive Egbuka went No. 19.

Now, with Buccaneers receivers Jalen McMillan on the IR and Chris Godwin still not practicing, Egbuka has the opportunity to have a Jefferson-like season in an elite offense. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Extra Points

⭐ Jayden Daniels’ 2024 was magic. But was it the best rookie quarterback season this century? The Athletic ranked the top-25 rookie QB seasons since 2000.

🚷 The Steelers make an exception. Sitting Aaron Rodgers for their final preseason game makes the 41-year-old the first healthy quarterback Mike Tomlin has held out of the preseason. Mike DeFabo explains why.

🔮 AFC win totals. Austin Mock uses his model to project the 2025 season. As a Bengals believer, I hope he’s right.

👔 ‘Normal-ass dude.’ Alec Lewis shares a detailed look at Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the commodities trader turned NFL executive whose journey is anything but normal.

▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Matt Barrows explains why the 49ers are so injury prone, and it starts with practice speed.

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(Photo: Michael Hickey, Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)

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