The Indianapolis Colts were hoping to get the league’s next great dual-threat quarterback when they took Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistency have plagued the young QB’s path thus far, and the Colts have had to turn to veterans like Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco to start 19 of the team’s last 34 games. Richardson was expected to beat out Daniel Jones for the starting job and enter Year 3 with head coach Shane Steichen ready to make the leap, but the former Giant ended up beating out the former Florida star to win the gig. Steichen said he believes Jones will be the team’s quarterback for the 2025 season but there’s likely to be constant evaluation to see whether Richardson can end up taking the job back.
Jones is looking to revive his career after getting cut by the Giants last year. He was the sixth pick in 2019 and went 24-44-1 as a starter, but he has played well at times, namely in 2022 when he had a lowly 1.1% interception rate and led New York to the postseason. If Steichen gets that level of production from Jones, Indy may finally get over the hump and make the postseason for the first time since 2020.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Colts’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Colts in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Indianapolis Colts season review
- Regular season: 8-9 (Second, AFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Longest playoff drought (four seasons) since seven-year streak from 1988-94
- No. 24 scoring defense (bottom 10 in NFL for third straight season)
- Anthony Richardson: worst comp pct (47.7%) in a season since Tim Tebow in 2011
2025 Indianapolis Colts offseason review
| QB | Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger | Daniel Jones | Riley Leonard (6) |
| RB | Trey Sermon | Khalil Herbert | DJ Giddens (5) |
| WR | Juwann Winfree | Ajou Ajou | |
| TE | Kylen Granson | Tyler Warren (1) | |
| OL | Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, Wesley French | Luke Tenuta | Jalen Travis (4) |
| DL | Raekwon Davis, Taven Bryan | Neville Gallimore, Eric Johnson | Tim Smith (6) |
| EDGE | Dayo Odeyingbo | JT Tuimoloau (2) | |
| LB | E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard | Joe Bachie, Jacob Phillips | |
| CB | Charvarius Ward, Corey Ballentine | Justin Walley (3) | |
| S | Julian Blackmon, Ronnie Harrison, Trevor Denbow | Cam Bynum | Hunter Wohler (7) |
| STAFF | Gus Bradley (DC) | Lou Anarumo (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +8000 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2023 | +12500 | 6.5 | Over | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2022 | +2240 | 9.5 | Under | 4 | 3rd, AFC South |
| 2021 | +3500 | 9 | Push | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9.5 | Over | 11 | L, Wild card round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Indianapolis Colts futures odds
| Go Over win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-105) | 7.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+100) |
| Go Under win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-115) | 7.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-120) |
| Win Super Bowl | +10000 | +12500 | +12000 | +8000 |
| Win AFC | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 | +3500 |
| Win AFC South | +375 | +360 | +400 | +340 |
| Make playoffs | +170 | +200 | +210 | +194 |
| Miss playoffs | -210 | -240 | -260 | -245 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3500 | +6000 | +4000 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Jonathan Taylor props
| MVP | +25000 | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 |
| Offensive POY | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +4200 |
| Most rush yards | +850 | +750 | +1000 | +900 |
| Rush yards O/U | 1250.5 | 1225.5 | 1200.5 | 1175.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Colts
The Colts do have good skill players with Taylor, Tyler Warren, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. We’ve seen this offense move effectively with Minshew and Flacco, and Jones profiles as a more accurate quarterback than Richardson. If he plays within the system, there’s enough to make Indianapolis competent on that side of the football. The Colts gave up a ton of yards defensively but were somewhat solid at preventing opponents from turning those yards into points at the appropriate level. They also ranked ninth in takeaways, so there’s some things to like on that side of the ball as the Colts add depth on the defensive line and in the secondary.
Playing in the AFC South means there are always six games for the taking, and only the Texans have a clear advantage over the Colts on both sides of the ball. Jacksonville is operating under a new head coach and Tennessee has a new quarterback. Four of Indianapolis’ first six games are at home, and three of those games are against teams which missed the postseason a year ago. A fast start could help the Colts stay in the playoff picture heading into the Week 11 bye.
Reasons to fade the Colts
After landing a big contract following the 2022 season, Jones floundered through the last two seasons. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and failed to replicate his rushing production from the 2022 season. There’s a reason he was available and the fact he beat out Richardson means the Colts don’t believe the youngster is much better even if Jones struggles. Indianapolis might have gotten a bit fortunate with takeaways mitigating what could’ve been one of the worst defensive performances over a full season in league history. It’s hard to keep forcing turnovers at that rate if the overall production does not improve.
Even though the Colts are getting a manageable schedule, they’ve got some tough road games against the Chiefs, Chargers, Steelers, Rams and Seahawks outside of their division games. They’d likely have to go 2-3 in these matchups to stay in the playoff picture, which is a tough ask for a team that went 3-6 on the road a year ago.
How to bet the Colts in 2025
- Over 7.5 wins +100 (FanDuel)
- Tyler Warren Under 500.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)
I have the Colts as right around a 7.5-win team this year, and while we have an Under 7.5 at +105 available as well, I’m more inclined to believe in Steichen and play the Over with the expectation that his offense is going to improve in one of two ways: either Anthony Richardson is going to play well enough to keep the starting job, or Daniel Jones will be an improvement over what Steichen has gotten from the QB position the last two years. Jones has struggled the last two years as well but was in a much worse situation, especially in terms of the players tasked with protecting him. If Jones ends up the Week 1 starter, I may sprinkle a little bit on the Colts to win the division at +350 or higher, as I think they’ll have a better shot than those odds imply with the Texans potentially taking a step back.
Colts tight ends collectively received 75 targets last year, which I think is on the high end of what we should expect, as that includes Joe Flacco throwing at least 35 passes in five of his six starts. That’s not how the offense is designed to operate, and no matter which quarterback is under center, we shouldn’t expect them to come close to throwing 35 passes in most games. Only seven of the 37 tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000 reached 500 yards as rookies, and four of them had at least 110 targets as rookies. The others had 91 (Dalton Kincaid), 78 (Dustin Keller) and 66 (Noah Fant). I don’t see Warren even getting to Fant’s number of targets as a rookie, and if he does, he’ll need to have a similarly high yards per reception figure (14.1 for Fant) to top 500 yards.
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