There won’t be another Sunday without NFL football until February. Rejoice.
The NFL regular season starts this week, and that means betting on the NFL regular season resumes as well. The lines have been up for months, and any Week 1 bets you made all the way back in May finally get a conclusion this week. The long offseason really is over.
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Here are five betting storylines for Week 1, with all odds from BetMGM:
Micah Parsons moves lines
The impact of the Micah Parsons trade, one of the biggest in NFL history, was felt in the futures market. The Packers’ moved way up the list of Super Bowl favorites and they also passed the Detroit Lions as the favorites to win the NFC North.
The lines moved for Week 1 games as well. The Packers were 1.5-point favorites at BetMGM over the Lions for most of the offseason, but after the Parsons trade it shifted to -2.5. The Cowboys, who were 7-point underdogs for the season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, are now +8.
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There aren’t many non-quarterbacks who could move a point spread a full point, but we have proof that Parsons is one of them.
Eagles are most popular side
Let’s not forget that the betting market was a bit slow to warm up to the Eagles last season. They were never a favorite to win Super Bowl LIX, even leading up to kickoff when the Chiefs were favored to win. Bettors are making up for that in Week 1.
Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles open the season against the Dallas Cowboys. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
(Mitchell Leff via Getty Images)
The Cowboys-Eagles game is the most-bet game of the week, and among all Week 1 games the Eagles were the most popular side in terms of tickets and money bet. And that was before Micah Parsons was traded to the Cowboys.
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Perhaps that’s a fade of a Cowboys team that went 7-10 last season and didn’t do too much to add talent in the offseason. Either way, there will be plenty of Eagles fans on Thursday night.
Not much faith in the Saints
The Week 1 line that has moved most in the months since the lines were set is Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints. It’s probably not because there is a ton of newfound faith in the Cardinals.
One of the themes of the offseason has been the growing sentiment that the Saints might be pretty bad this season. The Saints and Cleveland Browns are co-favorites to have the worst record in the NFL this season. The Cardinals were a healthy 4.5-point road favorite at the Caesars Superdome for Week 1, and that has moved two points to -6.5. The Saints are the biggest home underdog of the week, and it’s against a team that has the third-best odds to win the NFC West.
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Will Bengals’ slow starts persist?
The Bengals have been awful starters under Zac Taylor. Taylor is 1-11 in the first two games of the season over his first six years as Bengals coach. That includes a loss last season at home to the New England Patriots in Week 1, which anyone who plays survival pools remembers well. To combat the slow starts the Bengals played their starters some in the preseason, which has been rare since they drafted Joe Burrow. Maybe that will help.
Despite the Bengals’ recent September history, the Bengals are big Week 1 road favorites. Cincinnati is -5.5 at the Cleveland Browns, the second-biggest road favorite in Week 1. There’s almost no faith in the Browns this season, but that line is dismissing the Bengals’ early-season issues over the past six seasons. It would just seem wise to avoid the Bengals in your survival pools this September, just in case.
Watch scoring early this season
Last season saw a nice bump in scoring around the NFL. The average points per team each game went from 21.8 in 2023 to 22.9 in 2024. Those two total points per game aren’t trivial to those who like to bet totals.
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One reason for the bump was the change in kickoff rules. Last season saw a radical change, with the dynamic kickoff rules being implemented. There were more returns and more big plays on returns, which helps scoring. Also, touchbacks in the end zone were placed at the 30-yard line instead of the 25-yard line. This season the touchbacks will move again. Touchbacks into the end zone will go to the 35-yard line. That’s a pretty significant change that should affect scoring, with either shorter and quicker drives on touchbacks or more kickoff returns that could result in big plays. That’s worth considering when you bet totals early in the season.
This news was originally published on this post .
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