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Wise weekly wagers … what would an NFL bettor want worse?
Alliteration aside, the NFL season is underway, meaning bettors across the nation are ready to dole out some cash on a weekly basis.
That’s where I come in.
Each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.
Welcome to Will’s Wagers.
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THURSDAY, OCT. 2
49ers team total Under 17.5 points
The 49ers — or what’s left of them — limp into L.A. for a big Thursday night NFC West showdown. Brock Purdy will be out again, along with a couple of the 49ers’ best weapons, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings. Hard to see the road team cracking 18 points or more on the road against the Rams, who are eighth defensively in success rate for the season.
SUNDAY, OCT. 5
Dillon Gabriel Under 179.5 passing yards
Rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel gets the start for the Browns and does so with a tough assignment against the Vikings and defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ complex scheme. I expect the Browns to rely on their defense and running game and keep Gabriel resigned to being a game manager in his debut.
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Saints moneyline
The Giants got their first win of the season with rookie QB Jaxson Dart making his NFL debut last Sunday. But that was at home. He now has his first road start, and it takes place without the luxury of star wide receiver Malik Nabers to throw to. The Saints have played the 49ers, Cardinals and Bills all down to the wire. I think they come away with their first win.
Ashton Jeanty Over 65.5 rushing yards
Last week, we were on Jeanty’s Over and thought it could be the breakout game for the prized rookie running back. He rewarded us with 138 rushing yards. Let’s go back to Jeanty’s Over, as he draws an Indy defense that ranks 20th in the league, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
Under 43.5 points scored by both teams combined
Neither quarterback, Bo Nix nor Jalen Hurts, has lit up the scoreboard early this season. On the other hand, both defenses rank in the top six in success rate defensively. While the Eagles are 4-0 and have won 20 of their last 21 games, their offense has been far from impressive so far in 2025. I expect a defensive struggle in this one.
Mason Taylor Over 33.5 receiving yards
It’s been an ugly 0-4 start to the 2025 season for the Jets, but one bright spot is the emergence of tight end Mason Taylor. The rookie, and son of Hall of Fame defensive end Jason Taylor, has been targeted 13 times in the last two weeks, including seven times last week, where he had five catches for 65 yards. Against a poor Dallas pass defense, look for Taylor to go over this number.
First drive punt
It will likely be journeyman Cooper Rush starting at quarterback for the Ravens instead of Lamar Jackson. With a totally different style of quarterback and facing a stingy Texans defense, I think we might see some growing pains for this new-look Ravens offense.
Tetairoa McMillan Over 62.5 receiving yards
McMillan looks like a star and is seeing about nine targets per game as a rookie. He now faces a Dolphins defense that has been picked apart by opposing passing games and given up over 30 points in three of four games so far this year.
Cardinals -7.5
The Titans are 3-18 against the spread (ATS) since the start of last season. They have a rookie quarterback who hasn’t done much besides give some amusing post-game quotes. Now, they travel to play a team who comes into this matchup off extra rest. Not much reason to think the hapless Titans can hang around in this one.
Buccaneers team total Under 21 points
The Seahawks have quietly been one of the surprise stories of the first month of the season. At 3-1, they face a banged-up Bucs offense that will likely be without key skill guys Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. They also will have had extra time to rest and prepare, having not played since last Thursday night. The Seahawks are eighth in the league in success rate on defense, and third in yards per play allowed. I think they stymie the visiting Bucs.
Bengals +10.5
The Bengals have been embarrassed in their last two games, getting throttled on the road by the Vikings and Broncos. Now they get to return home and face a less threatening defense in a Lions team that is missing a cluster of contributors in the secondary. It’s ugly, but the Bengals have enough offense to hang within 10.5.
Under 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
It seems like Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels is on track to return from a knee injury. But will he be 100 percent and running as much as he usually does? If he’s not, that hurts the Washington offense. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are dealing with a number of injuries to what is now a decimated offensive line, as they struggled to move the ball last week in a loss to the Giants. Considering all the injuries, getting to 49 points is asking a lot.
Drake Maye Over 27.5 rushing yards
In big games, quarterbacks tend to put it all on the line and run more often, and this is certainly a big game for the Patriots. Maye ran for 31 and 45 yards, respectively, prior to last week. He only ran for 11 yards in a blowout win against the Panthers. He now faces a Buffalo defense that just allowed 49 rushing yards to quarterback Spencer Rattler, 70 rushing yards in Week 1 to Lamar Jackson and 49 yards in Week 2 to Justin Fields. Look for Maye to use his legs early and often on Sunday night.
MONDAY, OCT. 6
Over 46.5 points scored by both teams combined
The Chiefs beat the Ravens last week 37-20 and suddenly, they looked like the Chiefs again. Their offense looked fast and explosive. Perhaps that’s a sign that their emphasis on throwing the ball down the field more will pay dividends. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 3-1, but their defense has lived off of creating 13 turnovers. That’s three more than anyone else in the league, a recipe that might not be sustainable. Over 46.5 points is the play.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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