Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.
Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
The amazing Nacua is currently on pace for 210 targets, 176 catches, 1,999 yards and 11 receiving touchdowns (he also had another score on the ground). The true measure of offensive greatness is being able to dominate even when the opponent knows what’s coming. Sure, we’d like more touchdowns, but if Nacua hits the other statistical paces we listed, they would all be new NFL records.
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This is basically a reboot of the monster season Cooper Kupp posted in 2021, another Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay production. The narrow usage tree is alive and well in Los Angeles. If we redrafted today, Nacua would be a top-3 pick and could realistically go first overall.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
All those worries about Ben Johnson’s departure were ultimately unnecessary. “The Sun God” leads NFL receivers in success rate (75.6%) for the second straight season, and he’s piled up 18 touchdowns over his last 20 games. Jared Goff didn’t forget the successful plays from the last two seasons; a tenured QB should always be considered a part coordinator for his offense. In a year where so many early fantasy picks have disappointed for different reasons, St. Brown was one of the safest first-round picks you could make.
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Chris Olave, WR, Saints
Given all the concussion problems Olave has had over the last few years, it’s just nice to see him healthy and productive. But the shape of the New Orleans offense is much different this year. Although Olave is second in the league with 54 targets, he has just one touchdown and is averaging a mere 7.4 yards per catch. He doesn’t even have a grab past 17 yards on the season.
It hasn’t been for a lack of trying — Olave’s 8.1 aDOT is low, but a handful of receivers are even lower than that. And Olave does have five end-zone targets, ranking fourth in the league in that opportunity stat. But Spencer Rattler is obviously a cap on Olave’s upside, and it’s not like Tyler Shough is likely to make anything better, should he get a chance to play. Olave’s ceiling was more exciting back when he was drafted in 2022; these days, he’s holding on as a capped PPR scam, a WR3 at best.
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Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Panthers
He’s still tracking for the Diontae Johnson Award, up to 43 targets now without a touchdown (calling back to Johnson’s frustrating 2022 season — 147 targets, zero spikes). At least the opportunity has been stable with McMillan — he’s drawn at least eight targets in every game, and he’s on pace for 82 catches and 1,193 yards, validating his lofty draft capital from April. Better work from Bryce Young would certainly help — Young’s catchable pass rate is 72.4%, which is 31st among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts. There’s enough signal here to keep McMillan in the hold file for now.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
He’s been one of the struggling first-round picks, plodding around at just 3.2 YPC and without a 90-yard effort all season. But a modest uptick in receiving work has helped cushion the blow. Barkley’s 89.5% catch rate is easily the highest of his career, and he’s on pace for 435 receiving yards, which would be his best haul since 2019. Obviously Barkley’s 47-yard touchdown catch last week saved his fantasy day. The Philadelphia receivers have been unhappy with their target opportunity all year, but in the case of Barkley, it might be a life preserver.
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Tyquan Thornton, WR, Chiefs
Normally Andy Reid needs zero help identifying his best playmakers, but I wonder if he’s leaving something on the table with Thornton. Although Thornton had touchdowns in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and then dropped a useful 3-90-0 line in the Monday loss at Jacksonville, Thornton’s snap percentage fell to 45% and 34% the last two weeks.
Obviously part of that dip is others getting healthy in Kansas City, and deep threats like Thornton will never be expected to play every snap — after some of those cardio routes, you need a second to catch your breath. And despite modest snap counts, Thornton does have 14 deep targets on the year, first in the league (Emeka Egbuka and George Pickens are next with 11). There are enough positive signs from Thornton for him to hold fantasy utility through the bye week season, even as the receiver room here gets more crowded and confusing.
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Data from TruMedia, Pro-Football Reference and Fantasy Points was used in the research for this article.
Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 5
Wide Receiver
|
Player |
Targets |
Receptions |
Target Share |
|
Puka Nacua, Rams |
12 |
10 |
26% |
|
Stefon Diggs, Patriots |
12 |
10 |
43% |
|
Chris Olave, Saints |
11 |
7 |
36% |
|
Deebo Samuel Sr., Commanders |
11 |
8 |
48% |
|
Justin Jefferson, Vikings |
11 |
7 |
32% |
Running Back
|
Player |
Targets |
Receptions |
Target Share |
|
Kyren Williams, Rams |
10 |
8 |
22% |
|
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers |
9 |
8 |
19% |
|
Chase Brown, Bengals |
8 |
7 |
20% |
|
De’Von Achane, Dolphins |
7 |
6 |
21% |
|
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders |
7 |
6 |
19% |
Tight End
|
Player |
Targets |
Receptions |
Target Share |
|
Mason Taylor, Jets |
12 |
9 |
27% |
|
Jake Tonges, 49ers |
11 |
7 |
23% |
|
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys |
9 |
7 |
32% |
|
Dallas Goedert, Eagles |
9 |
7 |
24% |
|
David Njoku, Browns |
9 |
7 |
28% |
This news was originally published on this post .
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