Looking for sharp college football betting information through numbers and analysis?
The Power Rank member college football model comes from my background (Ph. D. in chemical engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions. From the start of the 2023 season through Week 6 of 2025, the model is 52.3% against the opening market (742-661 with 21 pushes for games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more).
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In addition to the model, I research subjective factors the model doesn’t consider to make long-term profitable bets. Here are my best numbers and analysis on five key games for Week 7.
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No. 6 Oklahoma vs Texas (-1.5, 42.5, neutral site)
The Power Rank prediction: Texas 24.4, Oklahoma 23.1
Will John Mateer play? The Oklahoma QB hurt his hand against Auburn but played the rest of the game. He then decided to have surgery on that hand on Sept. 24. The latest is that Mateer is pushing to play in this game.
Oklahoma started QB Michael Hawkins Jr. last week, and he threw for 5.42 yards per pass attempt against Kent State, the worst FBS team in the nation by my numbers. Oklahoma needs Mateer in this game.
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Texas QB Arch Manning continues to disappoint, as he had a 34.3% success rate and 6.46 yards per pass attempt in a loss to Florida. The Texas defense is still solid, ranking 11th in my adjusted yards per play.
If Mateer were fully healthy, Oklahoma should be favored in this game. However, we won’t know about his full health until he takes the field again this season.
Bet: Pass
Oregon running back Jayden Limar (27) rushes during the first half against Penn State on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
No. 7 Indiana at No. 4 Oregon (-7.5, 55.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Oregon 32, Indiana 27.8
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is the current betting favorite to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft (+340 at some sportsbooks). To show how the California transfer has thrived this season, let’s look at passing success rate.
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For an offense, success on a play is based on gaining a fraction of the necessary yards to the next first down: 50% on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd and 4th down. At The Power Rank, I take Mendoza’s raw passing success rate and adjust for opposing defenses. Mendoza is predicted to have an excellent 52.7% passing success rate against an average FBS defense (41% average).
Oregon’s defense lost its top five players in the secondary from last season in terms of coverage snaps. Purdue transfer S Dillon Thieneman is considered an NFL prospect, but overall the pass defense ranks 40th by adjusted QB success rate.
Oregon QB Dante Moore wasn’t officially named the starter until late in August. However, Moore has thrived this season with an expected passing success rate even better than Mendoza (53.9% against an average FBS defense). He is also the second favorite to become the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft (+430). Moore faces an Indiana pass defense that ranks 12th in my adjusted passing success rate.
My numbers have Oregon by 4.2 points at home. Indiana +9.5 was available on Sunday but has moved to +7.5. There is certainly value north of a touchdown.
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Bet: Indiana +7.5
No. 1 Ohio State (-14.5, 49.5) at No. 17 Illinois
The Power Rank prediction: Ohio State 36.6, Illinois 17.3
Ohio State’s offense looks like an elite unit again with first-year starting QB Julian Sayin. In my adjusted numbers, Sayin is predicted to have a passing success rate of 56.9% against an average FBS defense. Only Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt has a higher rating right now.
Sayin does have an elite receiving group with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. In addition, true freshman RB Bo Jackson has gotten the most carries on the team in each of the last three games and averaged 7.5 yards per carry for the season.
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After getting stomped at Indiana earlier this season, Illinois has recovered with wins over USC and Purdue. However, the defense seems very average, ranking 62nd in my adjusted yards per play. In addition, CB Xavier Scott, a starter since the 2023 season, is out for most of the regular season with an injury. Any secondary injury looms large against the elite Ohio State receivers.
My numbers have Ohio State by 19.3 points in this game, but the market has moved toward Illinois (+16.5 to +14.5). The difficulty in covering more than two touchdowns while also going against the market turns this from a bet to a lean.
Bet: Lean Ohio State -14.5
No. 15 Michigan at USC (-2.5, 57.5)
The Power Rank prediction: USC 30.8, Michigan 28.3
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Michigan started top recruit and true freshman Bryce Underwood at QB this season, and I had questions about his receivers earlier in the year. However, Underwood had a solid 270 passing yards against Wisconsin this past week, and Indiana transfer Donaven McCulley had 112 receiving yards on six catches.
Overall, Michigan’s pass offense ranks 57th in my adjusted success rate and 16th in adjusted yards per pass attempt. In addition, RB Justice Haynes has averaged an impressive 7.7 yards per carry. With more playing time for Underwood, this offense should continue to improve throughout the season. USC’s defense is an uninspiring 61st in my adjusted yards per play.
Lincoln Riley usually has an efficient offense, and this season is no different. QB Jayden Maiava has led the 10th-best offense by my adjusted yards per play. It should score points on a Michigan defense that has declined from last season.
My model predicts USC by 2.5 points, consistent with the market. However, a predicted total of 59.1 points suggests the over.
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Lean: Over 57.5
No. 8 Alabama (-3, 51.5) at No. 14 Missouri
The Power Rank prediction: Alabama 30.4, Missouri 29.4.
Missouri is off to a 5-0 start. Penn State transfer QB Beau Pribula leads an efficient passing attack, and Louisiana Monroe transfer RB Ahmad Hardy has rushed for 7 yards per carry this season.
Missouri started the season 31st in my college football rankings but has surged to 15th. Missouri has wins over Kansas and South Carolina, but it faces a new level against Alabama.
Alabama LB Qua Russaw didn’t play last week against Vanderbilt and is questionable for this game. On a better note, Alabama RB Jam Miller played his second game of the season against Vanderbilt, and his 136 rush yards on 6.2 yards per carry suggest he has recovered from his early-season injury.
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My numbers have Alabama by a point, and there is some value at a spread greater than the key number of three if you can find it.
Bet: Lean Missouri +3.5
Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a football analytics and betting information site.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
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