Wise weekly wagers … what would an NFL bettor want worse?
Alliteration aside, the NFL season is underway, meaning bettors across the nation are ready to dole out some cash on a weekly basis.
That’s where I come in.
Each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.
Welcome to Will’s Wagers.
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Bengals +5.5
The Steelers are looking to run and hide in the AFC North, and are off to a 4-1 start. However, division games can be tricky, especially when laying points on the road. According to Team Rankings, the Steelers have had the best fumble luck this year, recovering 83% of all fumbles. The Bengals were feisty last week, covering as big ‘dogs. Look for them to stay inside this number as well.
Travis Hunter Over 39.5 receiving yards
It’s been a relatively quiet start for the second overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, but it seems as though there’s a renewed emphasis on getting Hunter more involved. In the last three weeks, Hunter has 42 yards, 64 yards and then a quiet week last week — but one where he did see seven targets, even though it only netted 15 yards. They spent too much draft capital on him to not throw him the ball.
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Titans +7
The Patriots appear to be back, and are likely headed to the playoffs. You will hear all week that Patriots’ head coach Mike Vrabel is going to be extra motivated to beat his former team by a large margin, but coaches always want to win every game. The Titans mercifully moved on from Vrabel’s replacement, Brian Callahan, and teamS often play better immediately after a coaching change.
Vikings +1.5
The defending Super Bowl champs have now lost consecutive games. Is this the week they get back on track? I’m not so sure about that. The Vikings, coming off of a bye, appear to be getting much healthier. A beat-up offensive line might be back intact Sunday, and key defenders Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel both have a chance to play. The Eagles are 28th in the league in yards per play on offense, and have been outscored overall on the season. This is not the same team that won it all last year.
Chiefs team total Over 27.5
The Kansas City offense is back to being explosive. In recent weeks, it scored 37 points agasinst the Ravens, 30 against the Lions, and 27 against the Jaguars in a game where it averaged over seven yards per play. Now, K.C. gets back maybe its best overall offensive weapon (outside of Patrick Mahomes) in wide receiver Rashee Rice. I expect little resistance from the Raiders defense.
Justin Fields Under 175.5 passing yards
The Jets are 0-6 and coming off of one of the worst passing performances we’ve seen from a team in recent memory, netting a total of -10 passing yards last week against the Broncos. Are we sure Justin Fields makes it through the entire game if he starts poorly again this week? Fields is only averaging 159 passing yards per game, and backup Tyrod Taylor was competent in his one start against the Bucs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor out of the bullpen on Sunday.
Dillon Gabriel Under 196.5 passing yards
Heavy winds are expected in Cleveland on Sunday. I don’t believe this number that’s currently posted has properly factored in the weather. Expect lots of handoffs in this one.
Bears -4.5
I’ve said for weeks that the Saints are underrated and have been more competitive on a weekly basis than they’ve gotten credit for. That being said, the Bears appear to be rounding into form under new head coach Ben Johnson, and this line looks a little short at 4.5. Bears by a touchdown.
Giants +7
The Giants appear to be headed in the right direction. The rookie duo of quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo have their fans excited, especially coming off of a 17-point win over the Eagles. The key for me here is the rest and prep disparity. The Giants have been off since last Thursday, while the Broncos played last Sunday and are traveling back from London. Look for the upstart Giants to keep it close.
Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions
Jones has largely avoided the turnovers that have plagued his career, but he’s played against one of the weaker schedules to date. Last week against the Cardinals, four of Jones’ passes were deflected, meaning he’s flirting with throwing some picks. Against a stronger Chargers defense, I think Jones gets picked off in this one.
Packers to get first 1st down
The Packers have started with the ball in four of their five games. That’s not a coincidence considering they often take the ball when winning the toss, unlike most teams that choose to defer. Getting it first is a big advantage here.
Dak Prescott Over 262.5 passing yards
The Cowboys’ quarterback is having an incredible season, and he needs to with how poorly the Dallas defense is playing. In the highest total we’ve seen all year (55.5), expect plenty of fireworks, and look for Prescott to throw early and often.
Falcons +2
Are the Falcons for real? Sure seems like it. If you can forgive the 30-0 loss to the Panthers, the Falcons have been outstanding this year on both sides of the ball. They now face a depleted 49ers team dealing with a myriad of injuries. I’ll take the better team right now getting points.
Lions -5.5
The Bucs are a great story, but I think this is the week they cool off. These teams met last year, and the Lions lost the game despite outgaining the Bucs by over 200 yards. These teams met twice in 2023 with the Lions winning both fairly comfortably. I think Detroit rebounds here from last week’s loss in Kansas City.
Over 3.5 field goals made
Two very good defenses and two defensive-minded head coaches that will settle for field goals if the chance presents itself. Both teams have made multiple field goals in eight of their 11 games combined. I expect more of the same Monday night.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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