Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 7: Best Bets and Expert Picks

Week 7 landed with a scent of old man and bengal tiger on Thursday, when Cincinnati’s 40-year-old Joe Flacco figured out the best way to beat the Steelers was an old-fashioned game of catch with All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

Both went over their projected yardage totals and Chase easily cleared the 7.5-catch mark with 16 receptions for 161 yards and a score. He has 26 catches in two games since the Bengals swiped Flacco from the Browns via trade.

If statistics and player performance models are your jam, grab the butter knife.

With hundreds of markets for each game every week, finding the right ones can be a daunting task, but we’re here to help.

Here are our 10 favorite NFL player props for Week 7.

Jared Goff, OVER .5 rushing yards at +145 (BetMGM)

With one rush for seven yards last week vs. the Chiefs, Goff went OVER this mark for the third time in six games.

Against the Buccaneers, the goal for the day is ball control because of a battered secondary also dealing with Brian Branch’s one-game suspension. The longer they can keep the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands, the better.

While he doesn’t run often, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him tuck it and run for a short gain rather than attempt a risky throw. At this price, it’s worth the risk to take the OVER.

Travis Hunter, OVER 3.5 receptions at -130 (BetMGM)

Hunter had four catches last week after getting targeted seven times and has had at least three catches in five of six games this season. During the week, head coach Liam Coen expressed an interest in designing more plays with Hunter as the primary read. He’s electric every time he touches the ball, and Coen will likely dial his number at least once per quarter.

Rhamondre Stevenson, OVER 41.5 rushing yards at -115 (DraftKings)

Stevenson has not gone OVER this mark since running for 54 yards vs. the Dolphins in Week 2. But QB Drake Maye has the passing game on the runway. It will not take long for the Patriots to get out to a sizable lead against a poor Tennessee Titans team.

At that point, the offensive focus will likely turn to the run game. Stevenson will get enough carries to go OVER this TOTAL as the Patriots bleed the clock in the second half.

D’Andre Swift, OVER 52.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Swift ran for 108 yards last week vs. the Commanders and has gone OVER this TOTAL in three of five games this season (one of his last three). He’ll face a Saints defense this week that has been a little tough on running backs (85.33 ypg allowed), but the Bears will put enough emphasis on establishing the run for him to go OVER this mark.

Alvin Kamara, OVER 45.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Kamara has rushed for more than 45.5 yards just twice in six games this season, and in one of his last four. But he should benefit from playing a Bears defense that is next-to-last stopping the run, giving up 156.4 yards rushing a game.

Quinshon Judkins, to score a touchdown at -125 (FanDuel), OVER 85.5 rushing yards at -150 (BetMGM)

Judkins never got it going against the Steelers’ defense (12 carries for 36 yards) last week with the Browns going to the air. He should have an easier time finding running lanes against Miami, which arrives in an expected rainstorm on Sunday sporting the worst run defense in the league. In the three games with at least 18 carries, he scored twice and ran for 82-plus in all three.

Rico Dowdle, UNDER 63.5 rushing yards at -130 (BetMGM)

Dowdle has been taking advantage of weak run defenses the last two weeks, but will likely be sharing snaps at running back with Chuba Hubbard this week. With fewer touches and a Jets front that isn’t easily blocked, he’ll finish UNDER his TOTAL this week.

Saquon Barkley, OVER 68.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Barkley has been an immense disappointment this season, but there is still time for him to turn it around. Facing a Vikings’ defense that is not strong against the run (ripped for 132.2 yards per game in five games this season) gives him a shot at a breakout game. The only question is whether the Eagles will vary their attack enough to keep the Vikings from overloading the box.

Jayden Daniels, OVER 227.5 passing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Everyone has been destroying the user-friendly Dallas defense and putting up big numbers. Daniels is ready to jump in line for his turn now that Micah Parsons — who had 4.5 sacks in two Cowboys-Commanders games last season — is a Wisconsin resident. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young put up numbers that imply he was held in check last week, but that had more to do with Rico Dowdle running wild.