Fantasy Football: Jonathan Taylor’s third game of 2025 with 3 TDs and 9 other stats that stood out from Week 7

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Each Monday, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 7 was full of surprises. What keys to fantasy football success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?

29.4%

Rashee Rice’s target share in his first game back since his LCL injury/suspension. His target share from his Week 12 breakout in 2023 up until his injury in 2024 sat at 26.6%. If his Game 1 is any sign, fantasy managers are going to get exactly what they hoped for.

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Rice now has 8+ targets in 11 of his last 14 games played. His volume is already encouraging, but the best thing about the Chiefs Week 7 attack came in the red zone. Of Mahomes’ six passing attempts inside the 10-yard line, four went to Rice, including multiple that were designed plays. In a creative, effective offense, Rice’s talents are being used to the fullest extent from the get-go.

With entering the lineup midseason, Rice only ran 19 routes (compared to Worthy’s 30), meaning his targets per route were north of 50%. It’s looking like the Chiefs WR will have elite volume, on an elite offense, with a fantasy-friendly role. Wheel’s up.

72.2%

Rico Dowdle’s percent of carries in the second half. After only being given four carries to Chuba Hubbard’s nine in the first half, Dowdle’s hot hand won out. The Panthers gave over 70% of RB carries to Dowdle in both the third and fourth quarters, as he turned 13 second-half carries into 61 rushing yards, while Hubbard had five carries for five yards.

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The efficiency numbers in Week 7 were nearly identical to the numbers to begin the year. Hubbard wasn’t bad, but Dowdle was just better. The Panthers offensive line propels the Carolina RB room near the top in fantasy value. To start 2025, the Panthers RBs have combined for the eighth-most fantasy PPG. Both can provide value, but I would expect more of the same going forward in terms of workload. Despite the money heavily favoring Hubbard, I believe Dowdle has the better odds to pull away in usage. However, 55% of RB touches for Dowdle is what I’d expect on average week-to-week, due to the commitment (in multiple facets) the Panthers have with Hubbard. Although Dowdle has been a level above, a talented team captain at RB being paid $33 million is unlikely to get much less than 45% of the workload.

11

Second-half targets for Travis Hunter, the second-most by a WR this year (Ja’Marr Chase 12 on TNF). There was also a change in where his targets were. Last week, we saw six of his seven targets come on targets fewer than five yards downfield. On Sunday, nine of his 14 targets were further than five yards, including four being over 15 yards downfield. It was the first sign this season from the Jaguars’ playcalling of Hunter being used as a legitimate WR downfield.

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If we include Hunter’s consistently increasing route share, the long-term confidence takes another step in the right direction. This is now the sixth consecutive week that Hunter’s route share has increased, running a route on 89% of dropbacks Sunday. His season high did come alongside playing only 12 snaps on defense, down for the fourth straight week.

The obvious downside to Hunter’s utilization is Brian Thomas Jr. Same story, different week. Just as things were starting to come together, the Jaguars offense reminded us of their inconsistency as a whole. Thomas left the game early, but still ran 21 routes in the second half, resulting in zero yards. Without a quarterback able to support two fantasy wide receivers, it will be a pick-and-pray going forward between the two Jaguars weapons.

3

Rushing TDs for Jonathan Taylor, again. Three games of three touchdowns, the most since Derrick Henry in 2021, and we’re seven weeks in. Indianapolis has the best scoring offense in the league behind a top-five rate in run-playcalls. It’s all coming on the ground for Jonathan Taylor, with over 18 fantasy PPG on the ground alone, while no other player averages 14.

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I would compare his success directly to Barkley’s in 2024. The explosive runs that have disappeared for Barkley are all over the place for Taylor. With the help of his offensive line, Taylor has the eighth-best yards before contact (as a “power” back) and a league-leading 255 yards from explosive carries. His 36.5% of yards from explosive carries is similar to Barkley’s historic season.

The Colts’ red zone work is what can keep Taylor as the overall RB1. Indianapolis is first in red zone drives, where they run at the third-highest rate with the sixth-highest success rate. JT’s lead in goal-line attempts will only increase, as long as he doesn’t score too many touchdowns on explosive runs.

33.3%

Kyren Williams’ goal-line touch rate in 2025. Last season, Williams 5.2 fantasy PPG on goal-line attempts was by far the best in the NFL. That didn’t just come from incredible efficiency, but because he had the third-best rate among RBs with 49% of the touches inside the five-yard line. His current 33.3% rate drops him from third to 16th. It’s been a negative so far, but… there is hope.

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A few things can turn it around for Williams’ fantasy production.

1. The Rams offense has been much better. After being the 20th-ranked scoring offense in 2024, they currently rank 12th this season.

2. For an RB who’s a great goal-line rusher, his efficiency, a lot of which is due to bad luck, has been down. Williams 20 goal-line carries last season resulted in 12 touchdowns. This season? Only two touchdowns on seven goal-line attempts.

If the offense continues the way it is, yes, Adams may get the annoying one-yard touchdowns that he’s well-known for, but Williams will benefit when his number is called, even if the percentage is lower overall.

44

The number of targets Stefon Diggs has on the season without a TD. There are 30 WRs this season who have 44+ targets. The only other player without a touchdown is Jerry Jeudy. There are many differences between Diggs and Jeudy, but for this stat, the primary one is that Cleveland has five passing touchdowns on the year, while New England has 12. Usually, a WR1 on a team would have at least one of the team’s 12 passing touchdowns, and the numbers would confirm it’s coming.

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In last week’s YouTube video, I went over TD regression, both positive and negative, for players whose expected touchdowns based on their volume were significantly different than their actual scores. The top-two WRs with positive regression looming were Davante Adams and Chris Olave. On Sunday, the combined for five scores. The top TE? Trey McBride, two TDs. The top RB? Christian McCaffrey, two TDs. Diggs’ time is coming.

72.7%

The percentage of touches going to Josh Jacobs inside the three-yard line this season. Jacobs is the Jalen Hurts of fantasy RBs. It’s the reason TD regression for Jacobs isn’t necessarily around the corner. The Packers are top-five in red zone drives per game this season. Once they get down to the goal line, the plan is simple: jam it up the middle. Not only running it, but always (literally 100%) to Jacobs.

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So yes, the Packers star RB has eight touchdowns in six games. He also has 25 touchdowns in 24 games since coming to Green Bay. If the other shoe hasn’t dropped at this point, there’s usually a reason. As long as the Packers offense stays on top, so will Jacobs.

68.1%

The pass-play rate for Philadelphia since Week 5, the fifth-highest in the NFL. The revival of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown has been the dagger to Saquon Barkley over the last few weeks. The Eagles have been extreme in their game plans so far, with all but one game being either below a 60% pass rate or above 80%. However, the pace of play is much higher, going from the slowest over the first two weeks to middle of the road since, as well as Hurts’ yards per attempt jumping back up to his usual.

Now the main issue: Saquon Barkley. What’s going on? The volume is down, but it’s not the main issue, making it more difficult to fix. Barkley has yet to have 100+ scrimmage yards in a game this season. Last year, he crossed that mark in 13 of his 16 games played. The coaching scheme, mixed with the offensive line downgrade, are the problems. Barkley’s yards before contact have dropped from the best rate among RBs in 2024 to 27th (out of 37 qualified RBs) in 2025. The Eagles are running much more zone runs, yet with much fewer designed runs with Jalen Hurts (excluding tush pushes). Defenses have less to account for, and Barkley has less room to run.

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One stat that perfectly emphasizes this: Barkley had 835 rushing yards on explosive carries alone in 2024, 42% of his total yardage… in 2025, that has dropped to 18.7% with only 69 explosive rush yards on the season.

77.0%

Oronde Gadsden’s route share on Justin Herbert’s 61 dropbacks in Week 7. The rookie TE’s usage has now increased in each of his five career games, vaulting him to the overall TE1 spot of Week 7. The leader in TE route rate entering the week was Trey McBride (naturally) at 88.0%, with only five TEs above 77%. For a fantasy TE, especially a rookie, posting top-12 fantasy TE production in back-to-back weeks is noteworthy.

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There is plenty to trust when compared to other TE waiver options. Gadsden has 7+ targets in three of his first five career games, has an incredible quarterback, a pass-happy offense and an elite college production profile. The rookie wasn’t a nobody in college, but rather dominated Power-5 football from a young age, much like many current NFL stars. Los Angeles will have a tough Week 8 matchup versus Minnesota, but a great month of the schedule following. He would be my top option available on fantasy waiver wires.

0

Receptions, points, yards, anything from George Kittle on Sunday Night Football. I’d like to consider myself a fantasy nerd who doesn’t overreact when it’s unnecessary. So here’s your coping stat to calm down.

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Kittle has had six games where he has had either zero or one reception since 2021. This is nothing (too) new. The following game after a Kittle floor week, the 49ers TE averaged 21.8 PPR PPG. He’s been the fantasy TE1 in PPG back-to-back seasons for a reason. I’m not panicking on one game where Mac Jones had 152 passing yards and no touchdowns, against the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL, might I add. Everyone, take a deep breath.

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