Monday Night Football Week 7 Preview: Odds, lines, best bets

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Game Overview

Two of the NFC’s finest in the Buccaneers and Lions have seen each other frequently over recent years. They faced off twice in 2023, with the Lions covering twice as the favorite, including a six-point cover in Detroit during the NFC Divisional round playoff. That wasn’t the same story when they met up early in 2024, with the Bucs stealing the outright win as 7.5-point underdogs in Detroit.

This time around, there will be no shortage of bad blood, with each team vying for control of the conference. The Bucs are currently seated atop the NFC with a 5-1 overall record, while the Lions aren’t far behind at 4-2. It’s a similar story in betting markets, with both franchises tied among many teams for the NFL’s best cover rate (66.7%).

Tampa has been deadly on the road this season, holding a 3-0 ATS record that includes a pair of outright wins as the dog. That’s a common theme since Baker Mayfield entered the picture. Since 2023, Mayfield’s Bucs hold a 16-5 ATS record on the road, the second-highest in the NFL over that span. 

There’s a similar sentiment for Detroit, which has been a monster covering home spreads this season. The Lions hold a 2-0 ATS record at Ford Field, covering greater than six-point spreads against the Bears and Browns. However, this matchup will pose a far more difficult task, as the Buccaneers are in the upper echelon of the NFL compared to Detroit’s prior opponents.

At a 52.5-point game total line, this matchup is expected to have plenty of fireworks, setting up well for angles in the anytime touchdown and prop markets. 

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 240.5 passing yards (-118) 

Questions surrounding the health and status of the Bucs’ receiving corps have thrown markets for this offense into disarray. The latest news of Mike Evans’ likely return and Emeka Egbuka being a potential game-time decision paint this matchup in a much better light for Tampa. Even without his top two receivers for most of last week’s game, Mayfield was able to surpass his passing yardage line, marking his third over performance in the past three weeks. Mayfield is going to rip the ball regardless of who he’s throwing to.

Without Bucky Irving again this week, and facing off with one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL, the conditions are ripe for a high-volume passing performance from Mayfield. The 53-point game total is evidence of that. 

A depleted Lions secondary will have a difficult time matching up in this one, particularly if Egbuka and Evan are both able to go. With Brian Branch suspended and Kerby Joseph, Terrion Arnold and Avonte Maddox all ruled out due to injury, this Lions coverage unit will be extremely shorthanded.

If that wasn’t bad enough, per PFF’s Key Insights, Mayfield is dangerous against single-high coverages, having earned the fifth-highest PFF passing grade when faced with them. Detroit runs single-high looks at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.

Game Overview

As mentioned in my early look at lines for Week 7, this is a matchup between two vaunted defenses that will be looking to set the tone in this one. 

Coming out of the bye, Houston hopes to carry over offensive success from its previous two games which led to its first covers of the season. However, the Titans’ and Ravens’ struggles defensively this season are well-documented, and this matchup with the Seahawks’ defense will pose a far more difficult challenge to overcome. 

Mike Macdonald’s defense keeps teams off schedule — boasting the fourth-lowest successful play rate on first- and second-down allowed (30.2%) — while also limiting opposing offenses to scores on just 34.3% of drives (fifth-best in the NFL).

Seattle has been particularly strong in betting markets as the favorite. The Seahawks hold a 3-1 ATS record when laying points, also covering those spreads by an average of 6.6 points. The Sam Darnold–Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection has been one of the most deadly in the league, but they too will face a difficult matchup with the Texans.

DeMeco Ryans’ defense is again the identity of this team. Powered by two of the top-10 highest-graded edge defenders in the NFL in Will Anderson Jr. (90.5) and Danielle Hunter (86.4), Houston will aim to keep Darnold uneasy in the pocket. Houston’s No. 2-ranked PFF pass-rushing grade has propelled this team to top-five marks in key metrics like EPA per dropback and offensive success rate allowed. 

QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: Over 21.5 completions (-114)

This week’s game plan against the Seahawks points heavily to what should be a quick passing game for Houston to neutralize a stunt-heavy pass rush and avoid a stout run defense for Seattle. 

The Texans’ deficiencies in pass protection have looked far less glaring in recent weeks, particularly after Week 5 — in which they surrendered their lowest pressure rate (13.2%) of the year. But, much of those pressure concerns have been mitigated due to Stroud delivering the ball much more quickly than in weeks past. Stroud’s time to pass has fallen to an average of 2.48 seconds, after posting a 2.89-second time to throw across the first three games. That will be crucial against the Seahawks, who deploy pass stunts at a top-three rate in the NFL (36.0%).

On the ground, Seattle’s run defense will hold the advantage, further emphasizing the short passing game for Houston to stay on schedule. Seattle owns top-10 marks in PFF run-defense grade (74.4), EPA per rush allowed (-0.139) and run success rate allowed (27.0%).

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