If anybody’s due to get hot, it’s me.
That’s not to say the due theory is a real thing, but I bet on three college football teams that threw pick-6s last Saturday.
You literally can’t make it up.
Maybe you’ve found your new favorite fade.
Either way, I’ve got seven football bets this weekend. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2025 Record: (28-38-5, -13.6 units)
No. 15 USC @ No. 7 Oregon (-10, O/U 59)
This de facto Playoff game might not be close because the Ducks are a complete team. They’re more versatile offensively, possess a better defense and are generally tougher in the trenches. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon ran for 250 yards in this game. Here’s hoping the Ducks do what they’re supposed to do and that Puddles is a busy boy Saturday afternoon.
PICK: Oregon (-10) to win by more than 10 points
Washington State @ James Madison (-13.5, O/U 42.5)
That’s not a typo: James Madison is favored by almost two touchdowns against Washington State. The Dukes have a puncher’s chance to make the College Football Playoff (+400) and they’re the type of team that knocks out wounded fighters. Bob Chesney is doing exactly what Curt Cignetti did at JMU, and if this one gets lopsided early, the Dukes will finish the job.
PICK: James Madison (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points
No. 11 BYU (-2.5, O/U 56) @ Cincinnati
Does anybody want to bet on Cincinnati? One Las Vegas bookmaker told me nine of every 10 bets on the game are on BYU. That’s interesting because the line is hanging at -2.5 instead of moving to -3. Hmmm. Cincinnati’s offense is better than people think, and I like Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s chance to play spoiler. The sportsbooks would love an outright win.
PICK: Cincinnati (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Duke (-7, O/U 51.5) @ North Carolina
Bill Belichick’s defense is much better than it was earlier in the season. The Tar Heels took some gambles last week at Wake Forest and lost 28-12, but I’ve been impressed with four of the last five games. UNC held Cal to 21, Virginia to 17, Syracuse to 10 and Stanford to 15. I know some bettors expect Duke to roll, but I think this’ll be closer than the market thinks.
PICK: North Carolina (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
New Mexico (-3.5, O/U 53.5) @ Air Force
Air Force is playing a fullback at quarterback this week. I’m not kidding. Starter Liam Szarka is out, so Kemper Hodges moves under center, though he did play quarterback in high school. We’re going to see a ton of different looks from the Falcons against a New Mexico defense that’s nothing special.
PICK: Air Force (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
Steelers @ Bears (-2.5, O/U 46)
This Bears magic can’t last forever, can it? Chicago keeps finding itself behind the eight-ball with two minutes to go, and it keeps winning. It’s already happened five times this season, which is insane. There’s luck and there’s whatever’s going on with Ben Johnson’s bunch. I expect Aaron Rodgers to suit up and defend his preposterous 24-5 career record against the Bears.
PICK: Steelers (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Eagles @ Cowboys (-3, O/U 47.5)
Defense, defense, defense. We know the Eagles are rounding into form on that side of the ball and pass rusher Jaelan Phillips is a weapon for Vic Fangio’s unit. Let’s also understand the Cowboys have bolstered their D with healthy bodies and the addition of former Jets’ lineman Quinnen Williams. If this game is played at Philly’s pace, we could be in for 21-17 either way.
PICK: Under 47.5 combined points scored
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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